MARKET ANALYSIS
We Wouldn’t Get Too Bearish Here…

• Futures pulled lower across the board this morning as the market digested a notably weak ADP print, another wobble in AI megacap sentiment, and the ongoing repricing into next week’s Fed meeting.

• ADP showed a surprise loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs (vs +40k expected), driven almost entirely by sharp small-business layoffs (-120k). Large firms added jobs, but the signal is clear:

  • The labor market is softening at the edges.

  • The important part for markets: Rate-cut expectations moved higher — traders now price ~88% odds for a cut next week.

• Microsoft -2% premarket after reports it cut certain AI-related sales quotas. This is a reset on overly aggressive internal targets, but in a market already questioning the “AI trade durability,” it was enough to drag Nasdaq futures earlier.

• Meanwhile, the broader tone under the surface is risk-on beneath the macro fearmongering:

  • Bitcoin tapped a 2-week high above $93,000, continuing its rebound after last week's liquidation.

  • Marvell +10% after raising data-center growth expectations and announcing a major AI optical deal. This reinforces the swing theme we've discussed for months: AI infrastructure remains the strongest area of tech.

  • American Eagle +10–13% premarket, record Thanksgiving weekend sales, showing consumers still spending where value is strong.

• The market read-through today: Despite the negative futures, nothing here breaks the bullish regime. A softer labor market + firm inflation expectations + strong AI capex = exactly the blend that has supported equities since mid-November.

• Key watch into the session: Tech sentiment — particularly whether the Nasdaq can absorb the Microsoft headline and hold above yesterday’s breakout zone. If it does, the market confirms yesterday’s strength wasn’t a one-off.

Nasdaq

66.33%: over 20 EMA | 50.49%: over 50 EMA | 55.44%: over 200 EMA

• Yesterday’s session produced a high-relative-volume breakout straight into the $624 supply zone onto a level we’ve had marked for weeks as the key overhead supply band from early November.

• Despite futures pulling back this morning, the structure remains intact. The first real area of support sits at $611, where the rising 10-EMA and 20-EMA cluster and where the VRVP shows a major high-volume node.

• A move to $611 would imply roughly a –1.6% pullback, but that type of dip would not break the current momentum trend but would simply retest the area where buyers stepped in earlier this week.

• Importantly, the daily moving averages have fully re-aligned bullishly: the 10-EMA has now crossed back above the 20-EMA, and both have turned higher — a configuration we haven’t seen since before the October selloff.

S&P 400 Midcap

69.82%: over 20 EMA | 51.12%: over 50 EMA | 57.60%: over 200 EMA

• MDY did reject the supply shelf yesterday, as expected, and we’re now drifting lower into the $600 level — which is holding on first touch.

• This level matters because below it sits a low-volume pocket down to $595, where we find the rising daily 10/20 EMAs, the point of control, and the rising 10-week EMA all stacked together.

• As we discussed yesterday, midcaps were the most overbought index cohort in the short term, coming off that explosive two-week rally from the $568 demand shelf. A period of tightening here is completely normal and should be expected.

• We wouldn’t get bearish here as nothing here, on either the daily or weekly timeframe, is signaling a deeper markdown. MDY is simply working through a time-based correction beneath supply, digesting the prior move while holding every meaningful level of support.

Russell 2000

63.45%: over 20 EMA | 51.26%: over 50 EMA | 57.69%: over 200 EMA

• IWM is showing the same pullback off supply that we’re seeing in MDY, but the key difference, and what makes this far more interesting, is how well it’s holding its daily and weekly point of control (POC) at $244. That level held perfectly yesterday, and as of writing, it’s holding again.

• Remember that $244 is a major prior supply zone (the red box), and the fact that price is now stabilizing on top of it is the first sign of a potential supply → support rotation, which is the exact character change you want to see in small caps after a multi-month downtrend.

• Even if we see an intraday undercut into $242, that’s irrelevant as intraday swings do not matter as much, only the close matters and if IWM can hold $244 on a closing basis and turn this area into support, that would be a BIG character shift for the entire small-cap complex. This would mark the first time since October that IWM defends a major resistance shelf and flips it.

FOCUSED STOCK
TSLA: At An Inflection Point

ADR%: 4.44% | Off 52-week high: -10.9% | Above 52-week low: +103.1%

• TSLA is quietly becoming one of the more important charts in the market again as two weeks ago it formed a clean double bottom, tagged support almost to the dollar, and immediately launched higher, confirming the pattern with expanding volume and a decisive reclaim of its short-term EMA stack.

• That rebound was one of the strongest in the large-cap space, and it positioned TSLA back into leadership just as the broader “Magnificent Seven” began to reassert strength.

• Since that initial surge, TSLA has started to drift sideways and contract directly on top of its point of control (POC). This is exactly what you want to see after a major low as you dont often want an unsustainable a straight-line chase, but a controlled, orderly contraction that allows the EMAs to rise underneath price.

FOCUSED GROUP
XLC: The Leading Growth Group

• XLC remains one of the most important groups in the entire market right now — arguably the highest-quality leadership group alongside semis. The structure is quite impressive.

• Just like TSLA, XLC put in a clean double-bottom style rotation two weeks ago, drove off its rising weekly EMAs, and is now consolidating directly on top of its point of control (POC).

• The real driver here is GOOG, which continues to show powerful institutional accumulation beneath the surface. GOOG’s strength has kept the entire XLC complex stable even as other mega-cap groups wobbled — and that stability is showing up clearly in the sector’s volume distribution.

• What matters most is that XLC is holding above its POC, rising short-term EMAs, and prior supply — all while volatility compresses.

• This remains one of the strongest structural setups across all sectors — and should stay on the Focus List until it decisively breaks trend (which it is not showing any signs of doing).