OVERVIEW
Massive Moves Are Brewing

🟧 Moderate Risk-On: NVDA’s historic premarket surge is the headline, but strength is showing across the board — QQQ reclaiming weekly POC, small caps pushing into key resistance, and midcaps bouncing on volume. The market looks ready for continuation, but we’re watching for early fades.

🧠 What Matters: Don’t get distracted by headlines. Macro noise around tariffs isn’t what’s moving markets — it’s momentum in megacap tech, semiconductors, and growth leaders.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Do We Fade In The Open?

 📰 Headlines vs. Reality: This morning’s surge in equity futures will likely be misattributed to the federal court ruling that blocked President Trump from enacting sweeping tariffs under emergency powers.

The judges argued that the tariff orders exceeded presidential authority under the IEEPA statute — a notable legal pushback, but ultimately one with limited near-term economic implications.

The White House has already filed notice of appeal and publicly challenged the court’s authority, which ensures this story will linger in the background.

But let’s be clear: this is not the driver of today’s rally.

🔍 The Real Catalyst: NVIDIA: NVIDIA's 5% premarket move, following blowout earnings, has added nearly $170 billion in market cap — more than the GDP of many developed countries. Given its weight in both the Nasdaq 100, this move alone is lifting the tide for large-cap tech, QQQ, and associated growth sectors.

This is not a “broad-based macro relief” rally. This is what happens when the market’s most important stock surges in a thin tape ahead of a holiday weekend — positioning gets caught offside, dealers get squeezed, and you get forced follow-through.

🧠 What It Means for Traders: We’ve seen this movie before. When a mega cap like NVDA ignites a move, it’s tempting to chase — especially when headlines wrap it in a macro-friendly narrative.

But be disciplined. We’re gapping directly into overhead supply zones across major indices like QQQ and IWM, with visible volume voids offering room for velocity — and vulnerability.

Today’s session could very well fade the open. These euphoric gaps — particularly when driven by a single name — often need digestion. A failure to hold the opening range or a reversal below key levels like the weekly Point of Control in QQQ would be your first clue.

Nasdaq

🏆 Tech-Led Strength: The Qs remain the strongest index — hands down. Thanks to NVDA’s blowout report (more on that later), we’re seeing a potential weekly chart gap-up right over the Point of Control (POC). That’s not just a daily reclaim — it’s a major intermediate trend reclaim of supply.

📊 Why It Matters:

• The weekly POC breakout matters more than daily noise — it signals big-money interest at key zones.

• We’re now inside a visible range volume profile (VRVP) low-volume pocket, with less than 5% overhead to all-time highs. That’s blue sky territory if cleared.

⚠️ Caution:

• Last week’s high relative volume fade shows this area won’t be easy. Euphoric gap-ups often attract profit-taking.

• Watch for a possible fade early in the session. If we reclaim and hold the open range high, it’s game on.

🔑 Bottom Line: Still bullish — but aware of where we are. This is a key moment. If price clears and holds, we likely go on to retest all-time highs sooner than expected.

S&P 400 Midcap

📉 Midcaps At the Ceiling: MDY is currently coiling just beneath its key overhead supply zone between $568–$570 — the exact area where the last major correction in midcaps began.

⚠️ Exceptional Run, But…: Performance over the past two months has been strong, but we’re not seeing a corresponding surge in relative volume. That’s a red flag — we always want to see volume rising with price. Without it, moves higher are less likely to stick.

🔍 What to Watch:

• $570 = major inflection. Clear that, and midcaps likely re-enter sustained trend.

• Until then, low-volume grinding = vulnerable to pullback.

• If we break lower, watch the 10- and 20-EMAs for buyer defense.

📌 Key Insight: Without real participation (volume), this zone remains more about supply absorption than breakout confirmation.

Russell 2000

📦 Small Caps: Quietly Setting Up: Small caps (IWM) have been forming their own volatility contraction over the past three weeks, quietly basing beneath a key descending breakout level established in late 2024.

📉 Rejected Once — Now Rebuilding: Last week’s rejection at this zone was expected. But now we’re seeing IWM pushing back into that same area with premarket strength, setting up a second test of the descending 50-day EMA — a critical confluence level that overlaps the breakout zone.

📊 The Setup:

• Holding above the weekly Point of Control (POC)

• Riding the rising 10-week EMA

• Very little overhead supply on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP)

🔑 Key Takeaway: A breakout above this descending resistance + 50EMA would mark a major inflection — one that could kick off a full-blown small-cap bull cycle.

This is the most asymmetric risk/reward area we’ve seen in whole equities market in years.

FOCUSED STOCK
NVDA: NVIDIA Corporation

🚀 NVDA: The Market’s Center of Gravity: There’s only one name on every equity trader’s screen today — NVDA.

📊 Blowout Earnings: NVDA delivered strong beats across the board last night:

• EPS: $0.81 vs est. $0.737 (+9.89%)

• Revenue: $44.06B vs est. $43.33B (+1.68%)

Not only did they beat, they maintained their dominance with bullish forward guidance and margin strength — all while holding one of the largest market caps on the planet (larger than the entire U.K. GDP).

🔌 Why It Matters: NVDA is the engine powering all the biggest technology companies, the whole AI infrastructure, and much of the large-cap growth bid. Its movement doesn’t just affect one ticker — it affects everything from SPY to QQQ to risk sentiment across the whole US equities market.

🔑 Key Takeaway: If NVDA breaks out today and actually gains follow-through — this is a stock you need to jump on. These are the moments that define momentum legs.

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FOCUSED GROUP
SMH: Semiconductors

📦 NVDA Drives the Chip Trade: The semiconductor ETF (SMH) is starting to look like a mirror image of NVDA’s chart — and that’s no surprise. NVDA is the group’s bellwether, and its every move dictates flows across the entire chip complex.

📉 Tight Base → Big Move: We’re now seeing a 3-week volatility contraction / high-tight flag pattern forming on SMH — all happening on declining relative volume. This is textbook price compression before an explosive breakout. Pre-market shows a gap higher.

👀 Eyes on NVDA Today: NVDA’s push today could be the spark for SMH and the entire semi group. If you’re scanning for trade ideas, this is the place to look — find the top 3 names showing clean setups and relative strength inside this theme.

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