MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s What You Need To Know

• Markets are opening April with a relief tone, but the move is still being driven almost entirely by headlines rather than any confirmed shift in underlying conditions.

• Futures are firmer after Donald Trump said U.S. forces could leave Iran within two to three weeks, which immediately triggered a risk-on reaction across equities, Treasuries, and crude.

• The important nuance is that although oil is lower this morning, it is still trading at levels that remain extremely elevated in macro terms.

  

  OILUSD Daily & Weekly Chart

• West Texas Intermediate just below $100 and Brent Crude above $102 is still a very high-energy environment for global markets. These are not prices associated with normal supply conditions as they are simply lower than yesterday’s panic highs.

• In other words, crude is easing from extreme stress, not returning to comfort.

• That distinction matters because even a modest retracement after such a vertical move still leaves inflation pressure elevated, freight costs elevated, and broader macro uncertainty very much alive.

• If the market truly believed the geopolitical risk had materially disappeared, oil would likely be breaking much harder than this. Instead, energy markets are still pricing disruption, just with slightly less urgency than they were 24 hours ago.

• Yesterday’s equity rally also needs to be read carefully because quarter-end flows almost certainly amplified the move. Institutions often rebalance aggressively at month and quarter-end, which can mechanically lift oversold markets even without fresh conviction.

• So part of the rebound was genuine relief, but part of it was simply positioning.

• The larger issue remains leadership. Large-cap technology still has not shown convincing stability, and that continues to limit how durable any broad recovery can become.

• NVIDIA Corporation and Microsoft Corporation are bouncing premarket, but they are doing so after one of the weakest relative quarters large-cap tech has seen in years.

• That matters because if leadership is still being sold on strength rather than accumulated, the broader market remains vulnerable to another failed rally.

• Energy was the only sector to finish March positive, which tells you just how narrow true strength has become beneath the surface.

S&P 500

35.78%: over 20 EMA | 24.05%: over 50 EMA | 47.31%: over 200 EMA

• The SPY is now testing the first meaningful break in the downside regression trend that has controlled price since 25 February — roughly 34 trading days of very linear deterioration.

• Across that period, price declined about 8.8%, and what makes the move important is not just the magnitude but the consistency: each downside leg came with steadily expanding participation, which confirms this was institutional distribution rather than random volatility.

• Total volume traded during that regression has reached roughly 2.45 billion shares, materially heavier than a normal 34-day stretch, which reinforces how aggressively capital has been rotating out during this correction phase.

• When you zoom out to the monthly structure, that becomes even clearer. Current monthly relative volume is running around 146% of the 20-month average, meaning this month has traded with 46% more activity than normal, a major change in character compared with the prior trend environment.

• Yesterday’s bounce was the first session in several weeks that carried genuinely constructive participation. Relative volume came in around 165%, and importantly that happened while price reclaimed the 50-week EMA and held the $631 support zone, which remains a critical prior demand area.

• That combination matters because reclaiming a major weekly level on unusually strong volume materially improves the probability that this bounce has short-term durability.

• The weekly structure also deserves attention. We are only two sessions into the week and already at roughly 94% of the 20-week average volume, with three full sessions still left to trade. Unless participation collapses sharply, this is likely to become another high-volume week — but unlike the previous weeks, price is currently trying to reverse rather than extend lower.

• Technically, price is now pushing through the upper edge of the regression channel that has capped every rebound attempt for more than a month. That is the first real structural improvement the market has shown since the selloff began.

• The next immediate test is $655, where supply becomes dense. That area contains prior trapped volume and likely short-term sellers.

• The most probable path intraday is still a gap-fill attempt first, because opening gaps into overhead supply rarely clear cleanly on the first move.

• What matters more than the open is where price closes. If SPY can close above the regression line after spending 34 sessions beneath it, that would be the first genuine evidence that downside momentum is beginning to weaken.

• Another supportive factor is extension. SPY is now only around -2 ATR multiples below the 50-day EMA, meaning a large part of the short-term downside stretch has already normalised.

Nasdaq

31.68%: over 20 EMA | 20.79%: over 50 EMA | 43.56%: over 200 EMA

• The Nasdaq also produced a strong reversal session yesterday, with roughly 140% relative volume, making it the strongest participation day since the distribution range that developed between early February and early March.

• That matters because it is the first bounce in weeks that came with genuinely aggressive volume rather than passive short covering.

• Even so, the close tells you supply is still very active. Price failed to finish above the 10-day moving average, rejecting near $578, which is exactly where the volume profile remains heavy.

• At that level alone, roughly 4 million shares traded red versus only 1.75 million green, so more than a 2-to-1 selling imbalance remains overhead.

• This is also the first time since mid-March that price has actually opened above the declining 10-day EMA, which is a technical improvement, but not yet a confirmed shift in trend.

• The bigger resistance zone sits slightly higher around $586, where three separate technical pressures align: the declining 20-day EMA, the declining 200-day EMA, and the declining 10-month moving average.

• That area also carries even heavier trapped supply. Roughly 6 million shares traded red there versus 3.5 million green, which means a large amount of inventory remains underwater.

• Because of that, today is not really about continuation higher — it is about whether QQQ can hold above the 10-day EMA and consolidate rather than immediately fail.

• If that happens, it strengthens the case that the $554 low may have been a meaningful short-term bottom.

• But the caution remains obvious: this entire move is still headline-sensitive and heavily tied to Middle East sentiment rather than organic risk appetite.

• In practical terms, that means markets remain highly vulnerable to disappointment. If geopolitical optimism fades again, this bounce can unwind quickly.

• The QQQ had already reached near -5 ATR multiples below the 50-day EMA at yesterday’s low, which meant it was entering deep mean reversion territory. That stretch has now eased materially, with price sitting closer to -2 ATR multiples, which naturally increases the probability of chop rather than straight-line upside.

• Until the descending regression trend is clearly broken, longer-duration swing longs still carry elevated risk.

S&P 400 Midcap

44.25%: over 20 EMA | 25.50%: over 50 EMA | 45.50%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps also delivered a constructive session, and structurally the key point is that they successfully bounced from the 50-week EMA around $596.

• Tuesday’s move came on roughly 111% relative volume, which is strong enough to respect but not yet strong enough to call full trend reversal.

• The next key level is $625. That is where several pressures converge: trapped longs from prior failed attempts, the declining 50-day EMA, and prior broken support now acting as supply.

• Volume profile at that level shows approximately 450,000 shares traded green versus 260,000 red, which means there is trapped inventory that will likely react there.

• Premarket, price is also trading above the 10-week moving average, which is important because this becomes the first serious test of weekly supply since the selloff began.

• For MDY, the close matters more than the open.

• A close above $620 would be technically meaningful because it would mark the first weekly reclaim above the declining 10-week EMA since the February breakdown began.

• That would not confirm a new uptrend yet, but it would materially improve the probability that mid-caps are trying to stabilise rather than simply bounce inside a larger decline.

Russell 2000

35.78%: over 20 EMA | 24.05%: over 50 EMA | 47.31%: over 200 EMA

• IWM is participating in the rebound, but the quality of the move is clearly weaker than what we are seeing in the SPY, QQQ, or MDY.

• Yesterday’s reclaim did matter technically because small caps recovered the 200-day EMA after losing it decisively on Monday, and that reclaim came on roughly 125% relative volume, which is strong enough to justify the bounce.

• That move has also allowed price to hold back above the 50-week EMA, which remains the key intermediate support level underneath the current range.

• The concern is that when you zoom out to the weekly structure, the conviction still looks very limited.

• Weekly relative volume is currently running at only 60% of the 20-week average, which is extremely low when compared with the last four weeks of downside pressure, where weekly selling volume repeatedly exceeded 154% relative volume.

• In simple terms, the rebound exists, but it is still materially smaller than the selling wave that came before it.

• There are still three full sessions left in the week, so that weekly candle can improve, but for now the imbalance remains obvious: buyers have not yet matched the aggression sellers showed through March.

• Overhead, the immediate pressure zone is $252.50 as that area carries dense supply and is very likely to create selling pressure on any short-term push higher because it sits directly inside the cluster where prior failed rebounds broke down.

• The key point here is broader market context: one or two strong rebound sessions do not yet qualify as a character change.

• For a genuine shift in behaviour, all four major indices need to start showing repeated closes above declining short-term supply zones, not simply sharp reflex bounces from oversold conditions.

• Right now, that evidence does not exist yet as Oil is still elevated, macro sensitivity remains extremely high, and headline risk is still driving a large part of daily price movement.

• Until we see sustained acceptance above these overhead levels, this remains a relief phase inside a market that is still trying to prove whether the larger selloff has actually finished.

FOCUSED GROUP
URA: Uranium Showing Signs of Bear Trap

• Uranium is one of the more interesting groups right now because the behaviour underneath the surface does not look like a normal breakdown — it looks much more like a controlled low-volume retracement into major support.

• For roughly 63 trading days, or about nine full trading weeks, relative volume has been declining aggressively at the same time as price has drifted lower. That combination is important because when price weakens while participation contracts this sharply, it usually signals that selling pressure is not being driven by strong institutional distribution.

• In other words, it looks far more like a low-conviction pullback than a true liquidation phase.

• That type of low-volume selloff often resolves higher once price reaches a level where real demand historically reappears — and that level for URA has clearly been the rising 200-day EMA around $45.

• That support was tested on Monday, held cleanly, and then tested again through yesterday’s session without breaking.

• Yesterday’s rebound also came with relative volume expanding back to roughly 86% of the 20-day average, which is the first meaningful pickup in participation after several weeks of volume contraction.

• Premarket, price is now pushing above both the 10-week and 20-week moving averages, which is the first meaningful improvement in weekly structure since the pullback began.

• The immediate overhead level is $50.25, where supply remains dense and where we do expect sellers to become active again in the near term.

• Realistically, the opening gap is very likely to fill before any clean directional decision develops, because that level carries enough trapped supply to create short-term friction.

• What strengthens the bullish case is the historical behaviour of URA itself. If you look back through late 2025, the 200-day moving average repeatedly acted as the point where reversals began, not where breakdowns accelerated.

• That recurring behaviour matters because it tells you institutions have previously defended this trend at the same level.

• From our perspective, this remains one of the more technically attractive groups because the combination of declining selling volume, repeated 200-day support defence, and improving weekly structure strongly resembles a bear trap rather than genuine structural failure.

• It is still early, but uranium remains one of the few groups where weakness has not carried the characteristics of real distribution.