MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s What You Need To Know

• From a macro standpoint, yesterday’s price action continues to confirm that the market is in a rotation and decompression phase.

• Money appears to be flowing away from crowded, high-expectation technology trades and into areas with lower duration and more defensible cash-flow profiles, which is why the Dow and S&P (equal weight RSP) continue to hold up better than the Nasdaq.

• Technology remains the pressure point. Mega-cap and AI-linked names absorbed the majority of selling pressure, with the tech sector falling more than 2% in the prior session. This selling occurred despite no material macro deterioration, reinforcing that positioning is driving price.

• Earnings reactions are becoming increasingly asymmetric. Stocks are being punished for even modest guidance downgrades, while beats are struggling to generate sustained upside. This behavior is typical of later-stage advances, where expectations are elevated and upside liquidity is thin.

• The market is now using earnings as liquidity events where even strong reports are being met with selling as trapped longs exit into strength, which aligns with the persistent supply we are seeing at marginal highs across major indices.

• Upcoming earnings from Alphabet and Amazon are unlikely to materially change the broader market structure. Strong results may generate short-term volatility, but unless they lead to weekly closes above resistance, they are more likely to exacerbate rotation than reverse it.

• Weakness in international technology stocks and export-heavy software names highlights that AI enthusiasm is being repriced and it is this repricing process typically coincides with rising volatility and shrinking trade duration.

Nasdaq

46.53%: over 20 EMA | 49.50%: over 50 EMA | 51.48%: over 200 EMA

• The QQQ saw a very aggressive downside move yesterday, trading roughly 151% of relative volume, reinforcing the ongoing theme of persistent supply at highs.

• Any move above 628 going all the way back to early December 2025 continues to be met with immediate and aggressive selling pressure.

• This is clearly visible through the large upper wicks formed during the weeks of January 12th, January 26th, and again this week, all signaling the same thing: there is no marginal demand to hold the NASDAQ at highs.

• While we did see a bounce off the 611 demand zone, this bounce looks fragile. From our perspective, a retest of that level remains likely, especially with earnings volatility still ahead.

• Breadth continues to deteriorate:

  • Only ~46% of NASDAQ stocks are above their 20-day EMA.

  • Stocks above the 50-day EMA have slipped to ~49.5% and continue trending lower.

• Just as importantly, trade duration has collapsed. A few weeks ago, 3–5 day pullback trades were working but it seems that edge has disappeared.

S&P 400 Midcap

53.38%: over 20 EMA | 63.40%: over 50 EMA | 65.16%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps continue to materially outperform the NASDAQ, both structurally and from a breadth perspective.

• Breadth remains constructive:

  • ~53% of stocks above the 20-day EMA

  • ~64% above the 50-day EMA

• Price recently pulled back toward the rising 10-week moving average and found clear demand.

• The volume profile shows strong buyer participation:

  • Around 625–626, roughly 250k shares traded green vs ~117k red.

  • Deeper near 623–624, buying becomes even more asymmetric, with ~150k green vs ~45k red.

• This tells us demand is stepping in as price approaches weekly support, which is exactly what you want to see in a healthy stage-2 structure.

• That said, we still urge caution as the broader market anxiety is rising, and even relative-strength groups are beginning to feel pressure.

Russell 2000

55.18%: over 20 EMA | 61.43%: over 50 EMA | 65.20%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps are showing nearly identical price behavior to mid-caps, with one key difference: demand is even more aggressive on pullbacks.

• Around 258, buyers have been extremely active:

  • Approximately 4 million shares traded green vs ~1.5 million red across recent sessions.

• This level has now been defended multiple times, strongly suggesting that a clean breakdown below the 10-week moving average is unlikely.

• However, this “middle zone” is where traders typically do the most damage by chopping themselves up while waiting for resolution.

• From our perspective:

  • Small and mid-caps remain the preferred hunting ground for pullback setups.

  • But selectivity is everything, particularly around sector choice.

• The strongest relative areas we’re monitoring remain:

  • Small and mid-cap healthcare

  • Energy-related names

FOCUSED STOCK
VG: Focus Your Attention On Energy Stocks

ADR%: 7.47% | Off 52-week high: -56% | Above 52-week low: +65.7%

• Venture Global stands out within the energy theme, which continues to act as a relative safe haven in an increasingly unstable market.

• VG has shown aggressive expansion since December 2025, accompanied by meaningful relative volume.

• The stock carries a high ADR (~7.5%), but is now contracting constructively above its 20-week EMA, which it reclaimed for the first time since breaking below it in July 2025.

• This is particularly notable given that VG is a recent IPO (public for roughly one year), where strong trends often begin after early volatility shakes out.

• VG operates in the oil & gas pipeline / LNG infrastructure space, one of the strongest sub-themes globally right now.

• From a technical perspective:

  • The current contraction sets up a potential 7%–10% upside move, targeting the 200-day EMA near ~10.6.

  • Some chop is likely at that level, but above it, supply thins out meaningfully.

• With energy acting as a defensive leader and VG aligning technically and thematically, this is a name that deserves a spot on the watchlist.