OVERVIEW
Choppy Action Ahead—Just Don’t Panic

🟥 Risk Off: The market is extended after a strong run and is now entering a digestion phase. This is normal. Expect more back-and-forth action in the coming sessions.

🧭 Natural Pause: Retail sales and jobless claims came in steady, supporting the idea that this is a consolidation—not a breakdown. Buyers remain in control.

📊 Sector Rotation In Play: Strength continues in semiconductors, AI, and crypto-exposed stocks. Stay focused on where the money is going and remain selective with new entries.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Healthy Digestion, Not a Breakdown

The broader market is taking a natural and healthy pause after a strong multi-week rally. We’re seeing consolidation across key indices and sectors, which is exactly what you want to see before another potential leg higher.

On the data front, April retail sales rose a modest 0.1%, in line with expectations but a clear slowdown from March’s 1.7% surge. Consumers appear to be front-running expected inflation linked to renewed tariff pressure, with spending increasing notably in restaurants, bars, and home improvement categories.

Initial jobless claims held steady at 229,000, suggesting no deterioration in the labor market.

Bottom line: With macro fears easing and data coming in stable, the market appears to be shifting from reactive volatility to measured positioning. We remain in a risk-on environment in the broader sense, but expect rotation, pauses, and stock-by-stock behavior to dominate in the immediate short term.

Nasdaq

The Qs remain the clear leader. We’re seeing the strongest relative strength here versus any other major index, with three aggressive straight-up days driving us within reach of all-time highs.

However, as we approach this key level, the Visible Range Volume Profile shows overhead supply beginning to pick up. That means we should expect some struggle or hesitation here—this is a logical place for the market to pause.

The leadership is undeniable, but don’t chase strength blindly into known resistance. Let price confirm through volume and continuation, and avoid any new exposure today until we rebase.

S&P 400 Midcap

The midcaps (MDY) continue to hold above their rising 200-day EMA, which is a quiet but powerful signal—we’re likely in the early stages of a major shift in trend dynamics.

That said, we’re seeing a well-deserved pause after the recent strong run. Most major groups are notably extended, so expect more sideways action here. That’ll likely show up as positions stalling or retracing slightly.

Importantly, there’s no surge in relative volume—exactly what we want to see in a healthy digestion phase. Let the trend breathe.

Russell 2000

The small caps (IWM) have now been rejected at their declining 200-day EMA for three straight sessions. After a spectacular rally and recent gap-up, we’re seeing expected profit-taking and digestion at these levels. This is not long term weakness—it’s normal structural chop.

There’s strong support just below, with the rising 10-day EMA stretched but intact, and a dense volume cluster between the current price and the Point of Control (POC), which we’ve comfortably reclaimed. A short-term intraday pullback to the 10-day EMA wouldn’t be a surprise, and it’s likely to attract dip-buyers.

Let the market catch its breath here. Choppy is not broken—this is how healthy consolidations look after vertical moves.

🧠 Mindset Check: Stocks Move In Stair Steps

Many traders expect breakouts to lead to immediate vertical moves, but that’s rarely how the market works. Stocks tend to move in stair steps — push, pause, consolidate, and then push again.

📊 This is especially true for high-quality setups. The best leaders often build strong bases and take time to work through resistance levels.

⏳ Patience pays: If you’re in a strong stock, let it breathe. Don’t panic on every dip or stall. As long as the bigger trend is intact, consolidation is a feature, not a flaw.

🔁 Instead of asking “Why isn’t it going yet?”, ask:
→ Is volume drying up on the pullback?
→ Are key support levels holding?
→ Is the group still leading?

Great trades often reward those who can sit through the chop — that’s what separates a good entry from a great outcome.

FOCUSED STOCK
ACMR: ACM Research, Inc.

🔍 Long-Term Watch: Today, we’re spotlighting ACMR, a stock we’ve been tracking for nearly a year now. This is a prime example of a massive and bullish IPO base we've been watching closely.

As one of the most compelling setups we've seen in over a decade of tracking stocks, ACMR—focused on semiconductor maintenance—is currently coiling on its monthly chart.

📈 Powerful Base Formation: The stock has been forming a series of higher lows over multiple years, building a very strong base below its breakout level. As a general rule, always prioritize breakout consolidations on higher time frames.

A base formed on a monthly chart carries more weight and a higher success rate than a short-term base on a 5-minute chart.

FOCUSED SECTOR
GBTC: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

💥 Bitcoin’s Momentum: As we all know, Bitcoin is on an absolute tear, driving the entire cryptocurrency market forward with aggressive push-ups.

This surge is significantly impacting Bitcoin-related equities, especially the mining stocks, which are showing strong momentum. Companies like CIFR, MSTR, WULF, and COIN are seeing notable moves.

📈 GBTC Overextended: While GBTC is currently extended, nearing all-time highs, it’s important to remain patient. A pullback and some consolidation are likely before the next push higher.

Given the overall trend, all-time highs are more than likely coming in the next 1-2 weeks, so watch for entry points during pullbacks.

Q&A
"Why Do I Keep Getting Stopped Out in a New Bull Market?" - Felix Mahon

In a new bull market, the early movers are always the leading stocks. While many traders wait for confirmation from the broader indices like the SPY or QQQ, the truth is: stocks drive the market, not the other way around. The real power lies within the sectors and stocks that are moving first.

To stay ahead, focus on sector leadership and individual stock behavior. As the market rallies, certain sectors (tech, energy, healthcare, etc.) will start to show significant strength. Within those sectors, you’ll find stocks breaking out and moving with conviction. This is where the money is flowing, and this is where you want to position yourself.

Got Questions? Ask Us!

We want to hear from you. Whether you’re curious about market trends, specific stock setups, or trading strategies, drop us a question and we'll address it in an upcoming report!