OVERVIEW
Trump Renews Pressure on Powell

U.S. markets tumbled Monday amid growing investor unease over President Trump’s escalating attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and ongoing tariff uncertainty. The Dow dropped 972 points (-2.48%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2.36% and 2.55% respectively — capping a rough stretch for equities now facing their worst month since 2022.

The sell-off extended beyond stocks. The U.S. dollar index fell more than 1%, hitting a three-year low, while gold surged past $3,400 per ounce, setting a new record as investors sought safer assets.

Tensions between Trump and Powell intensified last week after the Fed chair warned that the president’s sweeping tariffs could fuel inflation and hurt economic growth — a scenario the Fed hasn’t faced in decades. In response, Trump took to social media calling Powell a “major loser” and threatened his removal, reigniting concerns over the Fed’s political independence.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett suggested the administration is reviewing legal options for possibly ousting Powell, although most experts agree the president lacks that authority based on current law.

Analysts say markets are reacting not only to trade policy uncertainties but also to fears that political interference in monetary policy could shake investor confidence. With no resolution in U.S.-Japan trade talks and further tariffs looming, pressure is mounting.

MARKET
Safe Havens Continue to Lead

The market is in an undeniably difficult spot. We won’t waste your time rehashing macro narratives you already know—tariffs are adding pressure, Trump’s comments are sparking volatility, and there’s an emotional undertone of fear across the tape. But what matters most to us as equity traders is how capital is responding. And right now, the rotation out of U.S. assets—equities, the dollar, and bonds—is not a subtle shift; it’s a violent repricing of risk that we must respect.

We’re not here to talk politics—we’re here to track how political and macro narratives shape the behavior of markets. Our job is to follow the money, not the headlines as we are nothing more than traders ourselves.

So far, the trade of 2025 has been gold. That’s not just a talking point—it’s a reality. And one of the most important things to internalize as a trader is this: you are responsible for moving your capital and attention with the institutions, not against them. Gold, a non-productive asset typically seen as a hedge against chaos, has exploded higher over the past three weeks in one of the most aggressive uptrends we’ve seen in years. But now we’re reaching a critical inflection point. Price is technically extended well above the 10-week and 50-week EMAs, which creates the potential for a mean reversion move.

We're not saying you should short gold—shorting strong trends, especially in chaos hedges, is rarely wise—but we are saying that fresh long entries here carry unfavorable risk/reward. If you're looking for exposure, wait for contraction or base-building.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq has led the decline in large-cap equities, and it’s no mystery why—megacap tech has been hit with relentless bearish headlines, and that pain is showing up clearly in the QQQ. We’re now sitting on a critical level from a structural standpoint.

Using the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), you’ll see that QQQ is currently perched right on top of its Point of Control (POC)—the price level with the highest traded volume throughout 2024. This is a massive battleground for control. If this level fails to hold, the next key zone is near the 3-week lows just above $400, a potential -7% drop from here.

What makes this setup even more fragile is the low-volume pocket that exists between the current POC and that $400 zone. If we break down from here, there simply isn’t much price memory or liquidity to stop the bleeding until we get there.

Quick reminder for anyone new to volume profiles: the VRVP highlights where institutional volume has been concentrated. Areas with low volume typically act like air pockets—once price enters, it tends to move quickly until it finds demand.

So in short: this week is pivotal. QQQ either stabilizes here or we're staring down a fast flush lower- we are in no man’s land.

S&P Midcap 400

Midcaps (MDY) continue to slide, now re-testing their reclaimed 200-week EMA near $485, which acted as a key demand zone in yesterday’s session. We did get a bounce there, and when we bring in the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), we can see why—there’s significant volume density around this level. That’s encouraging, and it sets up a potential base if buyers are willing to step in.

What gives this level more weight is the weekly candle from three weeks ago, which showed clear signs of capitulation suggesting institutional dumping met by responsive buying. But the follow-through last week was soft—a red doji on light relative volume. That’s not what you want to see if momentum is trying to shift.

The goal here isn’t some explosive breakout. It’s stability. But here’s the catch: we won’t get stabilization in midcaps until there’s broader net inflow into U.S. equities as a whole. With megacaps under pressure, the large funds that typically anchor the market aren’t stepping into midcaps. If the generals are wounded, the troops aren’t advancing either.

Right now, MDY is in “hold the line” mode. Keep your eyes on that $485 zone—it’s the battlefront.

Russell 2000

Small caps continue to take the brunt of this market pressure. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is now comfortably trading below its 200-week EMA—a clear signal of long-term structural weakness. More importantly, it’s barely hanging on to its Point of Control (POC) from the Visible Range Volume Profile, which is once again being tested in the premarket.

We remain bearish on small caps—though to be fair, that lines up with our broader bearish stance on U.S. equities. But the structure here is even weaker. If this POC level fails to hold this week, the probability of a retest of the lows from three weeks ago increases sharply.

And that setup? It’s actionable. A failed bounce here opens the door for a quick swing short, especially if volume confirms and we see continuation through that local support shelf. In this environment, small caps offer more downside momentum—but also more risk.

DAILY FOCUS
Institutional Rotation: Follow the Smart Money

Right now, it’s clear that institutions are rotating out of U.S. assets—specifically the dollar, equities, and bonds—and into safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin. This isn’t a typical sector rotation within equities; it’s a broader, more significant rotation out of U.S. assets entirely. This shift is driven by macroeconomic factors such as rising inflation concerns, climbing bond yields, and a weakening dollar. As retail traders, our task is straightforward: identify these movements, track where the big money is flowing, and ride their wave.

Institutional rotation refers to the strategic movement of capital by large investment firms, hedge funds, and other institutional players between different sectors, asset classes, or even regions. Typically, this rotation occurs within equities, moving from growth sectors like technology to defensive ones like consumer staples (XLP). However, what we’re witnessing now is different—capital is flowing out of U.S. assets altogether. Institutions are signaling that certain areas of the market no longer offer the growth or stability they once did. Instead, they are positioning in safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold, both of which are seen as reliable stores of value amid a weakening dollar and persistent inflation concerns.

Take Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as an example: Bitcoin is gaining strength and increasingly decoupling from traditional equities, positioning itself as a safe-haven asset. With the dollar weakening and inflation fears on the rise, Bitcoin’s demand is increasing. Pay close attention to the $89,000 level—if BTCUSD breaks above, expect further upside. Your job as a retail swing trader is to spot this rotation, understand where the big money is flowing, and align your trades to capture the next wave of institutional capital. Follow the flow, and you’ll always be in sync with where the market is headed.

WATCHLIST
Bitcoin Is Still The Trade

MSTR: MicroStrategy Incorporated

• MSTR, the go-to equity proxy for high-beta exposure to Bitcoin, is coiling tightly just beneath a key breakout level after several months of consolidation. The stock has been respecting its rising 50-week EMA, which has acted as a firm level of demand—particularly notable now that BTCUSD has officially broken out. This sets the stage for what could be one of the most highly anticipated long trades on the equity side.

  

  Double Bottom Formation

• Structurally, we can identify a clear double bottom pattern. The first “bottom” consists of three consecutive weekly touchpoints in late February and early March—each time MSTR tagged the 50-week EMA and rebounded, indicating heavy institutional buying interest. The second bottom formed in early April with another test and strong defense of the same level. This forms a clean, well-supported base with clear accumulation behavior.

• The $340 area marks the key breakout zone. A move through this level would put MSTR above a high-volume shelf and likely ignite follow-through buying, especially with Bitcoin strength providing macro tailwinds. If this breakout confirms, MSTR offers a high R:R long setup with the potential for sharp upside continuation, especially as institutions continue to rotate into hard assets.