MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s What You Need To Know

• Index futures are higher into the Fed decision, with Nasdaq leading and the Dow lagging. The tape continues to reflect a narrow leadership regime, with AI and mega-cap growth pulling capital while traditional cyclicals remain under pressure.

• The Fed is expected to hold rates today, so the statement itself is secondary. Powell’s tone will matter more than the policy decision. Inflation is still above target, growth is stable, and the labor market is cooling but not breaking—there is no immediate macro pressure forcing cuts.

• Markets are currently pricing roughly two cuts by year-end, but the path remains highly conditional. The key variable is whether Powell opens the door to earlier easing or reinforces a slower, data-dependent trajectory.

• ASML’s record order intake and strong forward guidance is a meaningful signal. Semiconductor equipment demand sits upstream of the AI capex cycle, and these bookings suggest that hyperscalers and foundries are still accelerating infrastructure spend rather than pulling back.

• China approving ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent to purchase Nvidia H200 accelerators is structurally bullish for the AI complex. Despite geopolitical noise, compute demand continues to override policy friction, reinforcing the durability of the AI buildout narrative.

• Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple earnings now become the central macro driver for equities. The market is less focused on headline EPS and more focused on capex trajectories, AI monetization timelines, and commentary on demand elasticity.

• The U.S. dollar just posted its sharpest one-day drop since 2022, with political rhetoric signaling tolerance for a weaker currency. A sustained dollar downtrend would be a regime shift, historically supportive for commodities and nominal assets, while embedding higher inflation risk premia.

• Near-term, this is a narrative-driven tape. AI capex confirmation and Powell’s tone will matter more than incremental macro prints over the next 48–72 hours.

Nasdaq

55.44%: over 20 EMA | 59.40%: over 50 EMA | 62.37%: over 200 EMA

• QQQ has delivered a decisive breakout, rallying ~4% from the January 21st 20-week EMA test at ~608, and ~4.7% including this morning’s gap.

• That is an aggressive move compressed into five sessions, and structurally meaningful on the intermediate trend.

• The breakout is technically clean, clearing the multi-month resistance band that capped price action since late October.

• This level had acted as a structural decoupling zone, so reclaiming it materially improves the upside regime.

• The one caution is the volume which has remained muted despite the breakout (≈68–71% of the 20-day average). That is not bearish by itself, but it does imply positioning and flows are driving price rather than broad participation.

• Breadth within the NASDAQ has improved, internal participation is expanding even as headline volume remains subdued, which reduces the probability that this is a pure bull trap.

• Event risk is extreme however with Tesla and Meta report today, with multiple mega-cap earnings over the next five sessions, alongside the Fed press conference.

• Naked long exposure into this cluster carries asymmetric downside risk, regardless of how constructive the chart looks.

S&P 400 Midcap

55.27%: over 20 EMA | 69.34%: over 50 EMA | 65.82%: over 200 EMA

• Mid caps remain technically strong, holding the 10-day EMA and maintaining their stage-2 structure. However, they are now clearly underperforming the NASDAQ on a relative basis.

• That relative underperformance strongly suggests rotation. Mid caps were the crowded long trade through December and early January, and capital is now rotating back into mega-cap growth.

• From a tactical standpoint, a pullback toward ~631 is plausible, with a deeper test toward ~619 (10-week EMA and prior demand zone) entirely consistent with a healthy reset rather than a trend break.

Russell 2000

59.37%: over 20 EMA | 65.63%: over 50 EMA | 65.94%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps briefly undercut the 10-day EMA, found demand, and reclaimed the level. Structurally still strong, but momentum is clearly cooling.

• Supply is visible near ~267, and near-term volatility is likely. A consolidation phase would be normal after the recent run.

• If Powell is interpreted dovishly, small caps can still squeeze. However, on a risk-adjusted basis, large-cap tech remains the cleaner expression right now.

FOCUSED STOCK
LEU: Uranium Stocks Are Still Pushing

ADR%: 9.46% | Off 52-week high: -33.4% | Above 52-week low: +526.3%

• LEU remains one of the highest-quality uranium leaders, with an RS rating near 98 vs SPX and a ~9.5% ADR. It is already up ~500% YoY, so trend maturity matters.

• The recent pullback into the 20-week / 50-day EMA cluster (~276) was textbook stage-2 support behavior. That dip was bought aggressively on elevated volume.

• Yesterday’s bullish engulfing reclaim, on ~128% relative volume, confirms institutional defense of the trend and this is perfect momentum trend continuation behavior.

• The optimal entry was the pullback into the EMA cluster. Secondary entries can still be taken, but risk must be defined tightly below ~275.5, which marks the structure low.

• Uranium remains one of the strongest thematic trends in the market. LEU is a clean expression, but size and stop loss management must respect volatility which we are likely to see.