MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s All You Need To Know

• The market continues to absorb macro pressure extremely well. Futures are firm again this morning, even after another wave of geopolitical headlines, and the broader message remains unchanged: buyers are still very willing to support risk, particularly in growth.

• The immediate relief this morning comes from oil pulling back after reports that U.S.–Iran talks may move forward and after the extension of the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire. That has removed some short-term pressure from the tape and is helping futures stabilise.

• That said, oil still deserves very close attention. Even with this pullback, crude remains above its rising 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Structurally, that means oil has not broken trend — it is simply retracing inside strength. As long as those moving averages continue to hold, energy remains technically supported and still capable of becoming a macro pressure point again very quickly.

• What is notable is that equities are continuing to hold firm regardless. Normally, with oil elevated and Middle East uncertainty still unresolved, you would expect more visible pressure across speculative growth. Instead, the market is continuing to digest all of this without meaningful technical damage.

• Leadership remains concentrated, with semiconductors still doing most of the heavy lifting. Intel’s earnings this morning are adding further support to that theme, reinforcing how strongly institutions are still rewarding earnings-backed growth.

• Outside semiconductors, some of the strongest opportunities remain in the themes we discussed yesterday — particularly quantum computing and uranium. Both groups have already shown very aggressive upside expansion, and importantly, short-term pullbacks into rising moving averages should not be read as weakness.

• In strong trends, controlled retracements into the 10-day or 20-day moving averages are often where the best continuation entries appear. If those levels continue to hold, that usually confirms demand is still active and that the broader trend remains intact.

• That is especially relevant right now because many traders tend to get shaken out by normal pullbacks after breakouts. In both quantum and uranium, a clean reset into support

S&P 500

65.40%: over 20 EMA | 54.87%: over 50 EMA | 55.66%: over 200 EMA

• SPY is now consolidating in what increasingly looks like a high-tight flag. After the 13% advance from the March 30 lows, this type of sideways digestion is exactly what you would want to see if the broader move is going to continue rather than fail.

• Relative volume continues to decline during the consolidation, which is constructive at this stage. Yesterday’s session had a wide intraday range of roughly 1.5%, above the average daily range of 1.14%, but importantly the selling pressure did not accelerate.

• What mattered most was how buyers responded at the lows. At $702.28, the visible range volume profile showed roughly 4 million shares traded green versus 2.7 million traded red. That is a very clear imbalance in favour of demand and confirms buyers are still actively defending weakness.

• Tuesday’s lows also held cleanly, which strengthens the short-term structure further. Right now, this looks less like weakness and more like controlled digestion after an aggressive move.

• Our base case remains sideways consolidation into the end of the week. If SPY drifts lower, the key level remains the rising 10-day EMA at 698.98. A test of that area would not be bearish — in fact, it would likely improve the structure by allowing another clear demand reaction.

• As long as SPY holds above the rising 10-day moving average, the broader rally remains intact.

S&P 400 Midcap

73.68%: over 20 EMA | 62.65%: over 50 EMA | 61.65%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps delivered exactly the pullback scenario we outlined. Price tested the 10-day moving average and immediately found strong demand.

• That demand response was decisive. On the bounce from the 10-day EMA, roughly 153,000 shares traded green versus only 52,000 shares traded red, which is a very disproportionate buyer response.

• That matters because this now confirms the prior breakout zone has flipped from supply into demand. The same area that previously capped price between early February and early March is now being defended.

• We still expect higher highs in mid-caps after this consolidation. Short-term breadth has cooled, but that is entirely normal after the group previously pushed above 80% of stocks over the 20-day moving average.

• The more important point is that medium-term breadth remains very healthy, with stocks over the 50-day and 200-day moving averages still holding strong across mid-caps, small caps and large caps.

Russell 2000

74.85%: over 20 EMA | 69.91%: over 50 EMA | 61.21%: over 200 EMA

• Russell 2000 is showing the same constructive behaviour, just with a shallower pullback. Price tested the rising 10-day moving average and buyers stepped in immediately.

• The volume imbalance again strongly favoured buyers. At yesterday’s lows of 271.95, roughly 303,000 shares traded green versus only 94,000 shares traded red.

• From our perspective, sideways consolidation here should not concern traders. As long as price remains above the rising 10-day moving average, this remains an environment where pullback longs still make sense, especially in the strongest Russell names.

FOCUSED GROUP
XES: Oil & Gas Pushing Again

• One area that still deserves close attention is oil. We addressed this in the macro section, but technically the message remains important: crude may have pulled back, but structurally it is still holding above key short-term trend support.

• WTI remains above the 10-day, 20-day, 50-day and 10-week moving averages. That means the broader oil trend has not broken — it is simply consolidating after a sharp move.

• Inside energy, XES is now particularly notable. The oil and gas equipment and services group completed a clean volatility contraction between March 24 and April 21, then broke out aggressively.

• Over the last three sessions, XES has rallied roughly 7% with a relative strength rating of 92 versus the SPX. That places it among the strongest groups currently trading and this matters because energy leadership while equities also remain strong tells you the market is still relatively comfortable with higher oil, at least for now.

• We would not ignore that signal. Rising oil does not currently invalidate growth exposure, but it does suggest traders should continue monitoring whether energy strength begins to broaden further.

• If oil stabilises here and pushes again, it can quickly become a macro variable the broader market has to respect. If oil instead loses these moving averages, that likely gives further room for growth to accelerate again.

• For now, both can still coexist — but this relationship deserves close tracking.