OVERVIEW
Noise, Noise & More Noise

🟧 Risk-Off: After yesterday’s theatrics — both on the tape and in the headlines — today is a digestion day. We’re seeing clear signs of resilience across major indices, but there’s no need to press risk into emotional volatility.

🎭 Political Drama ≠ Market Signal: From tech titans to former presidents, the narrative was loud. But the market told a different story — one of controlled pullbacks, demand at key levels, and price action still inside bullish structures.

🧭 Patience Is a Position: The trend is still intact across large, mid, and small caps — but the smart play is to step back and observe how the tape absorbs yesterday’s volatility. We’re risk-off today, waiting for cleaner confirmation before redeploying capital.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Politics as Entertainment — Price Is Still King

If you spent yesterday doom-scrolling the Musk vs. Trump feud, you’re not alone. The headlines were wild: Elon called for Trump’s impeachment, accused him of hiding Epstein ties, and torched the GOP’s tariff plans. Trump responded by threatening to cut federal subsidies to Musk’s companies. It was political theater at its most chaotic — and markets sold off.

But let’s save you the trouble of decoding all this. It’s all beyond irrelevant.

Yes, Tesla and a few clean energy names got hit. But the broader market didn’t fall because of this spat — it was already stretched, and profit-taking was inevitable. Traders simply used the drama as an excuse. The tape was already hinting at digestion; this just gave it a headline.

As momentum traders, we’ve learned this lesson the hard way: don’t trade headlines, trade setups. What matters is how price and volume respond — not what’s trending on X.

Nasdaq

Large and megacap tech took the brunt of the hit yesterday — not through any dramatic collapse, but via a sharp high relative volume intraday reversal.

The QQQ had looked poised to finally break out of its cup and handle formation early in the session… until the political noise kicked in and sellers stepped up. Despite the fade, there was no structural damage.

📍 Key Levels Holding. Price found support right at two critical levels:

• The Point of Control (POC)

• The rising 10-day EMA

That’s exactly what we want to see in a healthy trend — pullbacks respecting key demand zones on elevated volume. Buyers are still stepping in where they should.

🧭 What Next?
The handle structure is still intact. As long as QQQ continues holding above the 10-EMA and POC, this remains a bullish consolidation — not a failed breakout.

S&P 400 Midcap

MDY printed a quiet inside day yesterday — low relative volume, low conviction, and not enough juice to break through the overhead resistance zone sitting just above.

That resistance? It’s the multi-month declining trendline we’ve flagged for weeks. This level continues to cap upside, but price did find demand on the retest of the rising 10-EMA, forming a textbook doji candle — signaling indecision, not rejection.

📊 What This Means:
No breakout confirmation yet. But also no failure. This is exactly what digestion looks like right before a decisive move — either expansion above the trendline or a rejection that sends us back toward the 50-day.

Until we see volume expand and price reclaim that resistance (or break below support) with force, this remains a wait-and-see setup.

Russell 2000

The IWM delivered a textbook bounce yesterday — right off its 7-month descending resistance trendline, which it just reclaimed earlier this week. When former resistance becomes support, that’s what we call a character change — and it’s one of the most powerful momentum signals we track.

We saw that play out perfectly yesterday:

• IWM bounced cleanly off its rising 10-EMA

• Price held the Point of Control (POC)

• The reversal came on increasing participation — not just a dead-cat bounce

This area of confluence (trendline + POC + 10-EMA) is now a key battle zone for small caps. Holding it confirms the shift from trend rejection to trend resumption.

📈 What’s Next?
The next move that would confirm bullish control? A clean push into the low relative volume pocket overhead on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). That gap starts just above current prices and stretches toward $216 — a quick move is possible once buyers get the upper hand.

🧠 Mindset Check: Why Do You Care About Politics?

If you're serious about trading — really serious — you have to ask yourself: Why are you letting political drama rent space in your head?

The Trump vs. Elon situation is dominating headlines. It's loud. It's emotional. And it's irrelevant.

Whether it’s political feuds, regulatory speculation, or media spin — none of that matters unless it’s showing up on the tape.

Momentum traders don’t get paid for having opinions. We get paid for identifying confirmation and participating in it with discipline.

You don’t need to predict what Trump will say about Elon or whether a new policy will help or hurt a certain stock. You need to watch what price and volume are doing. Period.

Take any of the big winners in the last cycle— none of these have moved because of politics. They've moved because buyers stepped in, the hit the ask aggressively and pushed price higher. That’s all that matters.

Here’s how traders think:

• “Is demand expanding at key levels?”

• “Is volume confirming the breakout?”

• “Am I operating off confirmation or emotion?”

That’s how you stay in sync with the market — not by trying to guess how the news cycle plays out.

So next time you find yourself reacting to a headline or wondering “What does this mean for [insert stock]?”, zoom out.

Ask: Is the chart confirming strength? Is the setup valid?

If yes — trade it. If not — pass.

The best traders aren't analysts or opinionists. They're decision-makers who trust the volume & the price.

FOCUSED STOCK
ROOT: Root, Inc.

ROOT continues to develop one of the cleanest contraction patterns in the market. The setup has been forming higher lows while compressing right against its Point of Control (POC) — a classic sign of accumulation.

🛡️ Resilience in Action: Despite broader market weakness yesterday, ROOT barely flinched. That type of composure near a breakout level is exactly what you want to see.

🔍 What’s Next?: We’re sitting at a pivotal level — a breakout over $143 would confirm the move and likely ignite a fresh rally. Until then, continued tight consolidation is constructive.

💰 Sector Tailwind: ROOT is part of a broader wave of strength in the financials group, with standouts like DAVE and HOOD also showing strong relative strength. Keep scanning for leaders within this space — strength begets strength.

FOCUSED GROUP
RSPT: Equal Weight Technology

Yesterday’s behavior in the tech sector — particularly RSPT, the equal-weighted version of tech — was quietly telling. While we did get an intraday fade on higher relative volume, the market didn’t panic. In fact, there was no aggressive breakdown candle at all.

Instead, RSPT pulled back precisely into its Point of Control (POC), holding comfortably above the rising 10-EMA. That’s key. Equal-weighted tech strips out the influence of mega caps and gives us a more balanced, broad view of the sector’s health — and that view remains constructive.

🔄 Still Validating the Cup & Handle: The cup and handle formation continues to build and remains valid. Remember, short-term pullbacks into rising moving averages — especially after gap-ups — are expected behavior in a healthy uptrend.

📌 The Real Test: It’s not whether we fade to the 10-EMA (we likely will), it’s whether it holds. That’s the level we’re watching closely.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q:“What was the biggest change you made to your process that helped you become profitable?”

A: The honest answer? We stopped trading emotionally — and started trading structurally.

For most people, the turning point isn’t a better setup or indicator. It’s the moment you realize you don’t actually have a system — you have reactions. You chase green candles, cut winners too early, rationalize holding losers, and call it "intuition." That was us.

Our breakthrough came when we studied how real, consistent traders think — people like Kristjan Kullamäggie and Jeff Sun. What stood out wasn't just their setups — it was how they removed discretion. They built repeatable systems. Their edge wasn’t "feeling the market." It was structure.

Here’s what changed for us:

1️⃣ We created rules-based entries and exits — no guessing.

We defined exactly what a valid setup looks like (multi-week base, volume expansion, relative strength). We used moving averages (10, 20, 50EMA) and ATR multiples to guide entries, risk, and targets. Everything became codified. If a setup didn’t meet criteria, we didn’t touch it — no matter how “good” it looked.

2️⃣ We built daily structure: Pre-market plans & post-market reviews.

We write our plan every morning before the open. That’s our GPS. After the close, we debrief every trade — what worked, what didn’t, and most importantly, why. That’s how you build a feedback loop. Over time, this drastically improved our execution and confidence.

3️⃣ We stopped predicting. We started reacting.

We used to “guess” when a breakout might happen. Now, we only act when the chart tells us — e.g. a breakout through clear resistance on volume, or a valid pullback entry using anchored support. We’re not in the prediction business. We’re in the behavior business. Let price and volume lead.

Consistency doesn’t come from talent. It comes from clarity, repetition, and zero ambiguity. That’s the only edge that scales.

That’s exactly what we share daily inside Swingly PRO — real structure, real setups, real accountability.