OVERVIEW
UPS to Cut 20,000 Jobs Amid Drop in Amazon Business 📦

UPS is making major cuts in 2025 as it responds to declining package volumes from its largest client, Amazon. The company announced it will eliminate 20,000 jobs—about 4% of its global workforce—and shut down 73 buildings by year-end as part of a network overhaul.

Despite the layoffs, UPS stock rose 2.5% in premarket trading Tuesday after posting stronger-than-expected earnings. First-quarter net income grew 6.6% to $1.19 billion, and adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.49, beating analyst expectations.

Revenue for the quarter edged down slightly by 0.7% to $21.5 billion but still surpassed forecasts. Domestic and international package revenues both beat estimates, helping offset a nearly 15% drop in supply chain revenue following the sale of its Coyote logistics unit.

UPS says the restructuring will save $3.5 billion this year but will cost up to $500 million upfront in severance and closure-related expenses. The company has not updated its full-year outlook due to ongoing economic uncertainty but had previously projected $89 billion in 2025 revenue.

With more reviews underway, additional closures may follow. While the cuts are significant, they signal UPS’s pivot toward a leaner operation amid shifting demand and competitive pressures in the delivery sector.

MARKET
Expect Some Choppy Action Here…

The market is currently navigating a period where price action and volume are beginning to diverge, as we push higher with relatively low participation. Despite this, any pullbacks we've seen so far have been viewed as buying opportunities, signaling that the bulls may be regaining control. The ongoing upward momentum, though accompanied by low volume, suggests that there is still optimism in the market, with traders willing to step in during pullbacks to support the rally.

Looking ahead, we are gearing up for a busy week of earnings reports. Roughly one-third of the companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report their results between Monday and Friday, adding a layer of volatility and excitement to the market. Of particular focus will be the big tech names, with Meta Platforms and Microsoft set to report on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. These earnings reports are expected to set the tone for market sentiment, given the dominance of these companies within the broader index.

As of now, with more than 36% of S&P 500 companies having already reported, about 73% have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. While this is slightly below the five-year average of 77%, it still reflects a solid earnings season overall. From a macroeconomic perspective, there isn’t much to say at this point, as the market continues to digest these earnings results while looking for further direction.

Nasdaq

Looking at the QQQ from a technical standpoint, the divergence we’ve been highlighting continues to persist: price is grinding higher, but volume is steadily falling. Quite simply, this means that while prices are moving up, fewer market participants are actively supporting the move. In other words, the rally is being carried by lighter volume, which often signals a lack of conviction behind the move. When volume doesn’t confirm price action, the sustainability of the trend becomes questionable.

This becomes especially important as we now push into the Point of Control (POC) — the area where the most volume has traded in recent history. This is a key zone of resistance and a significant hurdle for bulls to overcome. If we are to see the bullish thesis play out convincingly, it will likely require a strong breakout above this level on high relative volume. Without that confirmation, we remain vulnerable to a pullback or even a potential reversal.

That said, one encouraging signal from yesterday’s session was the intraday action. Despite starting off weak, demand stepped in and buyers defended the prior day’s lows — a clear show of strength. When sellers can’t break the previous day’s support and buyers respond with conviction, it tells us that there’s still underlying appetite to buy dips, even in the face of broader uncertainty. This dynamic supports the idea that while the market is cautious, bulls are still willing to step in — but again, real momentum will only come if participation starts to broaden likely on mega cap earnings and forecasts being promising.

S&P Midcap 400

The midcaps are currently consolidating just above their rising 10- and 20-day EMAs on low relative volume. Unlike the QQQs, the divergence between price and volume here is far less pronounced. In fact, what we’re seeing in the midcaps looks more like a textbook bullish continuation pattern — a tight range forming on declining volume, which is exactly what you’d expect in a bull flag or a volatility contraction setup prior to a breakout.

We do anticipate a test of the Point of Control (POC) overhead, but the exact timing of that move is likely to be dictated by the megacaps. Right now, they’re firmly in the driver’s seat. A simple way to visualize this dynamic is by looking at the chart of the MAGS (the Magnificent Seven), which essentially mirrors the broader market. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a reminder that indices are driven by stocks, not the other way around. As such, until we see a decisive move in the megacaps, midcaps will likely remain in this holding pattern.

Russell 2000

Small caps remain the least influential of the three major capitalization groups right now, and their price action continues to follow the broader market’s lead. They’re not driving direction — they’re tagging along. That said, what is encouraging is how technically aligned all three groups are: large caps, midcaps, and small caps are all showing nearly identical setups.

This kind of synchronization is significant. It reflects a broad-based shift in investor behavior, with capital rotating back into equities across the board — especially following the notable sell-off in gold. When all size groups begin to move in tandem, it typically signals rising risk appetite. If the upcoming wave of economic data and megacap earnings doesn’t significantly damage sentiment, the stage may be set for a more sustained, broad-based rally in all equities which is very good news.

DAILY FOCUS
Entry Timing > Quality of Stock

In trading, the entry point is paramount — it can be the difference between a profitable trade and a losing one. It's not about choosing the best fundamentally sound stock or waiting for the perfect technical setup. The key is entering at the right moment, just as a stock transitions from consolidation to a new markup phase.

Consider this: you could buy a stock with weak fundamentals, one that's been struggling or underperforming. But if you catch it as it breaks out of a consolidation pattern and gains momentum, you could see significant profits. Timing the entry as the stock shifts from range-bound movement into an uptrend is where real opportunity lies.

On the other hand, even the strongest stocks can fail if you enter at the wrong time. A top-tier growth stock with great fundamentals can still disappoint if it’s overextended in an uptrend. Buying into strength too late can lead to a pullback, triggering your stop-loss and forcing you out of the position prematurely. In this case, the problem isn’t the stock — it’s the timing of your entry.

The optimal time to enter a breakout trade isn't during the consolidation phase before the stock breaks through overhead resistance, nor is it halfway up a Stage 2 rally. The best moment to enter is either just as the resistance is being broken from a multi-week or ideally multi-month range, or during a pullback/test after the breakout.

Why is this the most favorable time? Because that's when the risk-to-reward is skewed most in your favor. When a stock breaks resistance, it often signals a shift from a consolidation phase to a more sustained upward move. Entering at this point allows you to position yourself before the larger institutional players and other market participants catch on and start driving the price higher.

From a Level 2 perspective, when you enter at the moment of breakout or on a pullback, you are essentially setting up for the next wave of buyers to come in, driving the stock further up. This is critical—when you buy, you need someone else to step in and buy from you at a higher price to realize a profit.

This week, the timing of your entry is even more critical, given the influx of mega-cap earnings reports and key economic data. With earnings from companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Meta, combined with important economic indicators like GDP growth, PCE index, and non-farm payrolls, the market could experience rapid shifts in sentiment. The flood of information could either fuel a breakout or spark a reversal, and your entry point will determine which side of the trade you’re on.

WATCHLIST
Today’s Stock To Watch

SOFI: SoFi Technologies, Inc.

• SOFI is currently the only stock that stands out as a viable trade today, following an earnings-driven, episodic pivot. The stock is experiencing an impressive surge on steadily increasing relative volume, signaling strong buyer interest. Since SOFI set up a bull flag from its lows in early April, the stock has been consistently trading above its 50-day EMA, indicating strong technical support and bullish sentiment.

• In yesterday's session, SOFI demonstrated high demand, closing with a red hammer handle or a doji candle, both of which are confirmation signals of ongoing demand and this was all before earnings.