NEWS
Netflix Beats Expectations Again as Growth Momentum Continues🚀

Netflix delivered another strong quarter last week, reporting better-than-expected earnings and projecting even stronger performance ahead. Revenue for Q1 reached $10.54 billion, slightly surpassing analyst estimates, while earnings per share came in at $6.61 — a significant jump from $5.28 a year ago. The company also saw an improved operating margin of 31.7%, up from 28.1%.

Much of the upside came from higher-than-forecasted subscription and ad revenue. Netflix's lower-priced, ad-supported tier continues to gain traction, now making up 55% of new sign-ups in regions where it's available. The company also highlighted recent hits like Adolescence, Zero Day, and Temptation Island as key drivers of audience engagement.

Looking ahead, Netflix is guiding for Q2 revenue of $11.04 billion — a 15.4% year-over-year increase — and a projected operating margin of 33.3%. The company expects to benefit from recent price adjustments, continued subscriber growth, and expanding advertising revenue.

Alongside the earnings news, Netflix announced a leadership change, with co-founder Reed Hastings stepping down from his role as executive chairman to become the board’s non-executive chair — a move described as part of ongoing succession planning.

Despite global economic uncertainty and shifting consumer habits, Netflix’s latest results suggest it is maintaining strong momentum, with over 300 million subscribers worldwide and ongoing investments in new content, live programming, and games. While the company has stopped reporting subscriber numbers each quarter, it is shifting focus to broader performance metrics like revenue and profitability — both of which are showing solid growth.

MARKET
Risk Assets Fall, Safe Havens Rally

We’re entering a critical period for markets, with several macro risks likely to cause volatility. In the first week of May, the Fed’s interest rate decision will be a key focal point. Additionally, labor market data next week will give us key insights into the economy, especially as tariffs begin to show their effects. These factors, combined with the end of the 90-day tariff pause in July, are setting up a perfect storm for market moves. We expect increased volatility as those dates approach.

The tariff situation, while still fluid, has settled somewhat compared to recent weeks. President Trump’s ongoing talks with global leaders (this week with Italy and Japan) leave room for negotiation. However, the market views tariffs as having reached a ceiling, meaning any changes or exemptions could cause sharp moves.

On the Fed front, political tension between Trump and Powell is rising. Trump has called for rate cuts and even floated the idea of firing Powell. While this hasn’t led to a major sell-off yet, that could change if the conflict escalates or begins influencing the Fed’s messaging.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

The most significant development this morning, aside from Gold pushing to new all-time highs, is the breakout in BTCUSD. It’s emerging from a major volatility contraction pattern (VCP), with high relative volume supporting the move. This breakout could mark the start of BTCUSD’s first uptrend of 2025, signaling the next stage of its cycle. The momentum here is something to watch closely, as it sets the tone for potential upside in the coming weeks and is a very good risk: reward long trade.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq remains under pressure, reflecting the broader market’s struggle with risk appetite. Growth-focused equities, particularly those tracked by the tech-heavy index, are feeling the brunt of this shift. This morning, the QQQ lost its point of control (POC) at $438 during premarket trading, a key level that now opens the door for further downside. The Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) clearly shows how volume clusters thin out below this level, suggesting a rapid decline towards recent lows could follow if we don’t see a strong close today.

The lack of appetite for key tech stocks like NVDA and AAPL is having a notable impact on the QQQ, reinforcing the broader weakness in the tech sector. This isn’t surprising, as technology is unlikely to lead in the current market environment, where risk appetite is subdued.

S&P Midcap 400

Despite being a risk asset, the MDY (Midcap ETF) is managing to outperform the QQQ, a surprising shift given the overall weakness in equities. While both are facing overhead resistance from their declining 10-EMA, the MDY hasn’t experienced the same relative pullback in premarket trading as the QQQ, signaling some relative strength.

However, the relative volume on the MDY (and the QQQ) is concerning. The divergence we’ve highlighted in previous sessions is becoming more pronounced, as the MDY continues to climb on lower and lower volume, suggesting less participation at higher prices. Given this, the path of least resistance still appears to be downward for both indices.

Russell 2000

The small caps (IWM) are facing rejection at their declining daily 10-EMA, showing difficulty in breaking above this level despite attempts. The appetite for emerging equities remains low, further exacerbating their struggles.

Looking at the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), the IWM is trapped between two key levels: dense overhead supply around $188 and a strong demand zone near $182. If the broader market continues to push lower today, we’ll be watching the $182 level for potential support, where demand may step in.

DAILY FOCUS
Rotating With The Market Is Your Edge

Today’s focus is clear and actionable: BTCUSD. While the equities market remains unattractive due to both technical and macro headwinds, we are seeing a key breakout in Bitcoin that could mark the start of a new phase in its cycle. As swing traders, our job is to identify the best opportunities, and right now, BTCUSD offers a setup that demands attention.

Equities as a whole are currently in a poor technical position, and this is not the market we want to be exposed to. Growth sectors, particularly the Nasdaq, are suffering from lackluster demand. The broader indices are facing strong technical resistance, and the macro environment is showing few signs of improvement in the short term. The last thing we need right now is to get caught holding equities in a weak market.

This is where market rotation becomes crucial. The ability to pivot when market conditions change is the key to preserving capital and capturing gains. When equities sold off, gold rallied as a safe haven, and savvy traders were able to capitalize on this strength. This is what rotation looks like in practice: understanding when to shift focus from one asset class to another.

Now, the spotlight is on BTCUSD. Bitcoin has broken through a major resistance level, with a significant increase in relative volume. What makes Bitcoin unique is its position as both a safe haven and a risk asset. This dual role allows it to behave like gold in uncertain times, while also offering the volatility that risk-on assets like equities do. We’ve seen this combination create strong moves in the past, and the technicals suggest we could be entering another phase of upside.

For us, BTCUSD offers a clear, actionable opportunity. Monitor the level at $86,000, which has now become a key pivot. If Bitcoin can hold above this level with continued volume, it’s setting up for a potential move higher, likely taking us into $90,000+ territory in the coming weeks. The most important factor here is volume confirmation; we want to see sustained interest at these levels for a real breakout to materialize.

In practical terms, here’s what we’re looking for today:

• BTCUSD: Watch for strength above $86,000 with continued high volume. This could signal the start of an uptrend for 2025.

• Equities: Avoid exposure in growth stocks for now, especially in the tech sector. The market is likely to continue struggling, and there are better opportunities elsewhere.

• Gold and Miners: As we mentioned, gold has been strong. If you’re already in gold-related positions, consider locking in profits as the move is extended. But for new trades, keep gold on the radar if it consolidates near key support levels.

WATCHLIST
The Only Trade That Matters Today

IBIT: iShares Bitcoin Trust

• If we see continued follow-through in BTCUSD today, any related product—whether it’s an ETF tracking the spot price of Bitcoin or individual stocks like MSTR, should experience similar upside momentum. This is often the best time to enter a long position, not because it’s a guaranteed win (no one can ever guarantee that in trading), but because we’re witnessing a shift in character and clear relative strength. We’re no longer seeing BTCUSD or related assets break lower. Instead, they are showing solid signs that they want to move higher.

• For example, IBIT, one of the main BTCUSD ETFs, is breaking above its declining 50-day EMA for the first time since the corrective phase back in early 2025. If we see high relative volume in the first 5-15 minutes of today’s session, this would confirm a change in character—a key signal that the trend is shifting.