OVERVIEW
All Eyes on Google as Q1 Earnings Arrive Amid Trade and Antitrust Pressures 🔍

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, is set to report its Q1 2025 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, with investors watching closely for signs of how Trump’s new tariffs and rising regulatory scrutiny might affect the tech giant in the months ahead.

While analysts don’t expect the tariffs to impact first-quarter revenue or earnings per share directly, concerns are mounting about their potential drag on advertising and cloud spending in the second half of the year. Barclays flagged slowing e-commerce activity and predicted weaker digital ad performance for Q2.

Google’s stock is down over 19% year-to-date and around 3% over the past 12 months. For Q1, Wall Street expects earnings per share of $2.01 on $89.1 billion in revenue — up from $1.89 and $80.5 billion a year ago. Ad revenue is projected to hit $66.4 billion, with YouTube contributing $8.9 billion.

Google Cloud Platform (GCP) will be another key focus. With Google planning to invest $75 billion in AI infrastructure this year, investors are looking for strong cloud growth. GCP is expected to post $12.3 billion in Q1 revenue, up from $9.5 billion last year. However, budget cuts linked to tariffs and government spending slowdowns — including from clients tied to Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative — may temper those gains.

Meanwhile, Google faces growing antitrust pressure. A recent U.S. court ruling declared its dominance in online ads illegal, increasing the likelihood of forced restructuring — compounding regulatory challenges from a similar loss tied to its search business in 2024.

MARKET
We Are On A Critical Level…

Yesterday, the market was hit with some negative news as China announced there were no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., putting a dent in investor optimism that tensions between the two nations might ease. Just earlier this week, President Trump had signaled a willingness to take a less confrontational approach toward the trade issue, which had helped fuel optimism.

What’s particularly interesting, though, is how the market has reacted—or rather, how it hasn’t. Despite this setback, we’re seeing key levels holding strong in the pre-market, and there hasn’t been the sharp breakdown one might expect from such negative news. This shift in behavior is notable and could signal a potential change in the market's character. Investors are showing resilience, and the fact that the market has yet to react in a dramatic way suggests that underlying strength could still be in play.

Nasdaq

Taking a deeper dive into the technical breakdown of the market, we saw a strong gap-up opening in the QQQ yesterday, followed by a close on relatively high volume. However, there's a critical point that deserves focus: the 20-day EMA. For months, this level has been a consistent point of rejection. The fact that it held this time, rather than rejecting price action, signals a potential shift in character—this is not bearish; it's bullish.

To explain it in simple terms: the 20-day EMA is one of the most watched short-term moving averages, often acting as a line of support or resistance. When the market has been rejected at a key level repeatedly (in this case, the 20-day EMA), it suggests that buying interest or demand was insufficient to push the market higher. However, now that we are seeing price action holding above this level, it signifies that there is a change in the behavior of market participants.

This could indicate a shift from a more defensive market posture, where participants are hesitant to take on risk, to a more risk-on environment. We're closely watching today to see how the market closes and how the QQQ reacts to this key level. Take a look at the hourly chart above, which shows the decline in the 200-EMA on the hourly chart, where the rejection occurred before the price faded lower to the hourly point of control (POC).

However, it’s notable that the 10-EMA on the hourly chart is managing to hold, and it's even pushing the QQQ higher premarket. This is the key zone to monitor. If we fail to see buying aggression here, it's likely we will see a gap fill to the downside. This would suggest the market isn't ready to move higher yet, and we could potentially revisit lower levels.

S&P Midcap 400

The midcaps themselves faced rejection from overhead supply and the declining 50-EMA on the daily chart. However, just like the QQQ, they are holding their 20-day EMA, which is the key zone we're watching for short-term momentum shifts. The reality is that the MDY is likely going to follow the same path as the QQQ, and the overall market sentiment will largely be dictated by the performance of big-cap and mega-cap tech stocks, especially as we approach earnings season.

The analysis here is consistent with our broader outlook — the goal remains holding the now-recovered 20-EMA. We don't necessarily need or expect a massive push higher, but we do want to see a close that holds above this key level. If the 20-EMA holds, it would confirm that short-term momentum is shifting positively, supporting the idea of continued upside potential.

Russell 2000

The small caps mirror the same technical setup, with the primary focus on holding the current level, and there’s no need to unnecessarily repeat ourselves. The Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) shows significant overhead resistance, emphasizing the importance of the IWM maintaining its position here.

The small caps are likely to struggle the most in this environment, and their price action will be the most volatile. Small-cap stocks are more sensitive to market fluctuations due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to risk sentiment shifts. When the broader market is uncertain, these stocks tend to experience amplified moves — both up and down — as investors rapidly adjust their risk appetite.

DAILY FOCUS
Today Could Be a Major Turning Point

Yesterday, the market gapped up at the open, faded during the session, but managed to close in positive territory. Volume picked up, and both the Nasdaq and NYSE recorded slight net new highs, signaling that buying interest remains intact despite midday weakness. The ability of the market to hold ground and finish higher is a constructive signal, though it’s important not to get overly bullish based on one day’s action alone.

What to Watch Today:

• Sector Performance: Focus on sectors that are regaining bullish momentum—particularly growth stocks in technology and consumer discretionary. Look for any further confirmation of strength in these areas as they could continue to absorb capital moving away from defensive assets like gold.

• Volume Confirmation: Volume is the key. If price action continues to push higher but volume starts to fade, be cautious—it could indicate a lack of conviction. A breakout accompanied by increasing volume, however, is a much stronger signal that the market is supporting the move.

• Risk Management: As we’re still in potentially volatile conditions, continue to apply strict position sizing and use stop-loss orders to protect against any sudden reversals. Consider scaling into positions gradually, especially in areas showing early signs of strength, rather than going all-in on a single move.

Stay flexible. If the market sustains strength through today and the next few sessions, it may be time to increase exposure to growth sectors. However, if we see a pullback or if volume doesn’t confirm the rally, going back to 100% cash is the move.

WATCHLIST
2 Of Our Top Growth Stocks

UBER: Uber Technologies, Inc.

• Uber has continued to form an impeccable base over the past year, dating back to the early 2024 rally. We’ve observed a series of descending highs and higher lows, creating a tight consolidation pattern. As we head into May earnings, the stock's price action has been getting increasingly tight, suggesting potential for a breakout.

  In addition to its strong technical setup, Uber has benefited from some major positive news, including Volkswagen's partnership to deploy robotaxis in the U.S. by 2026, starting in Los Angeles. This adds a layer of fundamental strength to the stock, potentially boosting its long-term growth outlook.

• Technical Setup: The tight consolidation heading into earnings increases the potential for a breakout, but the uncertainty surrounding earnings is too high to hold naked risk into such a volatile event. From a technical standpoint, however, Uber’s base is exceptional, and a breakout could provide a solid entry point if the earnings reaction is favorable.

• Earnings Risk: While we remain bullish on Uber’s long-term potential, consider reducing position size or waiting for post-earnings confirmation to avoid getting caught in a volatile price swing. Alternatively, if the stock shows strong momentum ahead of earnings, a breakout could signal a low-risk entry after the event.

RGTI: Rigetti Computing, Inc.

• RGTI (Rigetti Computing) is standing out in the tech sector based purely on technicals. The stock has formed a solid weekly base and is showing clear bullish signals.

• The stock has demonstrated a linear retracement with a steady pullback. It’s now attempting to break above its 10- and 20-week EMAs, which would be a strong signal of a potential trend change.

• Volume has been drying up during the consolidation phase, which typically suggests accumulation. A breakout above these levels, with volume confirming the move, could indicate that RGTI is ready for a move higher.

• While the technicals are strong, RGTI remains speculative from a fundamental perspective. As a quantum computing company, it doesn’t yet have the financial stability or market traction to fully justify its valuation.