MARKET ANALYSIS
What You Need To Know Today

• Markets begin the week with the same dominant macro force still in place: geopolitical risk is no longer being treated as a short-lived headline shock, but as a persistent inflationary and growth-sensitive pressure that continues to feed directly into asset pricing.

• Over the weekend, the conflict broadened again as Iran-backed Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles toward Israel while an additional 3,500 U.S. troops arrived in the region, reinforcing that the war is moving into a more prolonged phase rather than approaching resolution.

• President Donald Trump again signalled confidence that a deal with Iran could come soon, but markets are increasingly requiring hard evidence rather than verbal reassurance.

• That shift is visible in energy first. Brent Crude briefly pushed toward $116, while West Texas Intermediate moved back above $100, which tells you the market still sees supply disruption as the primary near-term reality.

• What matters now is that the conflict is no longer isolated to the Strait of Hormuz alone. The threat to Red Sea routes and Saudi export infrastructure materially raises the probability that alternative shipping corridors also remain unstable, which keeps freight pricing, insurance costs, and energy risk premia elevated.

• In practical terms, markets are beginning to understand that even if some barrels continue moving, the cost of moving them has structurally changed.

• That is why oil is holding elevated even while equity futures attempt a modest rebound this morning: futures are reacting to short-term oversold conditions, while crude continues pricing deeper supply stress.

• Equity markets closed last week under clear pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now entered correction territory alongside the Nasdaq Composite, while the S&P 500 has now recorded five consecutive weekly declines — the longest losing stretch since 2022.

• What is changing beneath the surface is that prior relief rallies are losing credibility faster. The market is still attempting rebounds, but each rebound now carries much less conviction because participants increasingly understand that macro uncertainty is not resolving on the timetable initially expected.

• At the same time, this week introduces an important second layer of risk: labor market data. With JOLTS, ADP, and the monthly payrolls report ahead, macro sensitivity is now split between war-driven inflation pressure and whether employment data begins confirming economic slowdown.

• That creates a more unstable setup than earlier in March, because higher oil and weaker growth data together would intensify the market’s current concern that margins and earnings expectations remain too optimistic.

S&P 500

13.71%: over 20 EMA | 19.68%: over 50 EMA | 42.94%: over 200 EMA

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is continuing to accelerate lower, and the most important development now is that virtually no meaningful demand appeared at $644, which had been the key near-term support level.

• That level mattered because $644 aligned with the rising 50-week EMA and was also the same zone where price attempted to stabilize during the Friday, March 20 bounce.

• What the market has now shown is that this prior support had almost no real sponsorship once retested. Thursday’s close sat directly on that level, but instead of attracting buyers, Friday opened beneath it and immediately accelerated lower.

• That breakdown came on 115% relative volume, marking a four-day volume high, which is exactly the opposite of what you would want to see if a durable short-term low were forming.

• In practical terms, this was not support absorption — it was failed support followed by fresh supply entering immediately below the level.

• The weekly chart now makes the broader picture much clearer: SPY remains in a confirmed stage 4 decline, with selling pressure increasing on the intermediate timeframe rather than fading.

• What is especially important is that weekly relative volume is now rising inside the breakdown, which tells you this is not simply a light corrective drift lower — participation is expanding as price weakens.

• The higher timeframe deterioration is becoming more serious because SPY is now trading below the 10-month EMA for the first time since March 2025, which means the correction is no longer isolated to daily or weekly structure — it is now beginning to affect the primary trend on the monthly chart.

• Monthly pressure is also already statistically significant. Current monthly range has expanded to roughly 1.4x normal weekly ATR, while monthly relative volume is running at 131%, the highest level since the March–April 2025 capitulation phase.

• That combination — expanding downside range plus elevated higher-timeframe volume — usually tells you that forced de-risking is still active rather than complete.

• At this point, the next major reference becomes the monthly 20 EMA, which sits near $614, implying another 3.18% downside from current levels.

• Until price shows actual demand returning on elevated volume, the broader evidence still suggests this correction has not yet reached exhaustion

Nasdaq

10.89%: over 20 EMA | 14.85%: over 50 EMA | 40.59%: over 200 EMA

• Invesco QQQ Trust continues to mirror the same accelerating weakness now visible across the broader market, but with even greater intensity because the index remains heavily concentrated in growth and large-cap technology.

• The key technical failure remains the rejection that occurred on Wednesday, March 25, when price failed decisively at the declining 10-day EMA, while also rejecting the 10-week and 20-week moving average cluster on the higher timeframe.

• That rejection effectively confirmed that the prior rebound was only a short-covering attempt rather than genuine sponsorship.

• Since then, price has continued lower with the same concerning pattern: relative volume expanding while price deteriorates, now clearly below the 50-week EMA, which confirms that QQQ remains in a fully active stage 4 decline.

• The more important signal is that average true range is expanding at the same time as relative volume, because when volatility and participation rise together during downside movement, it typically means selling pressure is strengthening rather than exhausting.

• That dynamic is also being reinforced by positioning. Recent commitment-of-traders data continues to show expanding short pressure from asset managers, which fits the broader price behaviour we are seeing.

• On the monthly timeframe, the deterioration is becoming much more significant. QQQ is now materially below the 10-month EMA, while monthly relative volume is running at 144% of the 20-month average — the highest downside participation seen since May 2022.

• That is especially important because it tells you this is no longer a routine correction inside an uptrend; this is now a higher-timeframe repricing with institutional volume actively involved.

• The first major monthly downside reference remains the 20-month EMA, which sits roughly 3.4% lower from here, but given the scale of monthly volume expansion, there is a growing probability that weakness extends beyond that level before true stabilization appears.

• Technically, QQQ is now approaching short-term mean reversion territory at roughly -4 ATR multiples below the 50-day EMA, but historically that still does not guarantee an immediate low when macro pressure remains unresolved.

S&P 400 Midcap

19.00%: over 20 EMA | 19.75%: over 50 EMA | 40.75%: over 200 EMA

• SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust remains structurally weaker on the weekly chart, but short-term price behaviour is slightly more balanced than QQQ.

• The dominant pattern still resembles a right-side shoulder inside a larger head-and-shoulders top, visible clearly on the intermediate weekly structure.

• Over the last four weeks, downside range has expanded materially, and that has occurred alongside elevated weekly participation.

• What stands out now is that relative volume has declined for two consecutive weeks while price holds the 50-week EMA, currently near $595.60, which sits just beneath the 200-day EMA.

• That level matters because it has repeatedly held since the inverse head-and-shoulders reversal in May 2025, which launched the previous stage 2 advance.

• Friday’s session came on only 77% relative volume, suggesting that current weakness is not yet showing the same aggressive liquidation seen in QQQ.

• For that reason, while broader structure remains vulnerable, immediate short exposure in MDY is less attractive until the 50-week EMA either fails clearly or price resolves decisively away from this support zone.

• At present, the most realistic outcome is continued consolidation around this weekly support before a larger directional move develops.

Russell 2000

27.04%: over 20 EMA | 23.65%: over 50 EMA | 44.69%: over 200 EMA

• iShares Russell 2000 ETF remains more volatile than MDY, but relative breadth is marginally healthier beneath the surface.

• Current breadth shows roughly:

  • 27% of stocks above the 20-day EMA

  • 24% above the 50-day EMA

  • 45% above the 200-day EMA

• That remains stronger than mid-caps, even though price structure is still under pressure.

• The key technical event was again the failed bull trap on March 25, where price briefly reclaimed the 10-day and 20-day EMA before rejecting sharply and rotating lower again.

• From here, IWM increasingly looks trapped in a broad range between $250.58 resistance and $242.21 support, with the lower boundary defined by the rising 200-day EMA.

• That creates a wide 3.3% trading range, which favors short-term tactical trading rather than directional conviction.

• Until price exits that range decisively, the Russell remains more of a range market than a clean trend setup.

FOCUSED STOCK
VRT: Today’s Short Trade To Track

ADR%: 5.39% | Off 52-week high: -11.0% | Above 52-week low: +369%

• Today’s short setup is focused on VRT, which remains one of the more important data-center infrastructure names inside the technology complex.

• The reason this matters is that VRT sits directly inside the broader AI and communication infrastructure ecosystem, exactly where weakness has already intensified through names like Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc..

• Thursday’s breakdown was highly significant: price produced an 8% daily range, which was materially larger than normal and clearly signalled exhaustion after prior leadership.

• Friday attempted a rebound, but participation collapsed to only 65% relative volume, and price failed directly at the declining 20-day EMA.

• That leaves the near-term downside target at $232.60, where the 10-week EMA and 50-day EMA converge.

• From current price, that implies roughly 7% downside, while keeping stop risk tight against the declining 20-day EMA.

• Structurally, that creates highly favorable asymmetry because the first target is close, but if weakness broadens, price could extend much deeper toward $202, where the rising 20-week EMA becomes the next major support.

• Momentum is already rolling over, and last week’s gravestone-style exhaustion candle strongly suggests leadership is beginning to break here as well