OVERVIEW
Buyers Are Still Driving the Bus

🟢 Risk-On: Breadth is expanding across QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Small caps just hit 5-month highs. Midcaps are coiling. Large-cap tech still leads.

📊 Broad Market Structure: Breakouts are holding. Demand stepped in at key levels across all major indices. Volume is confirming strength.

⚠️ Tariff Headlines Ignored: Markets shrugged off aggressive new tariffs. Price pushed higher. This is classic risk-on behavior—buyers in control.

🧠 Follow-Through Over Forecasts: This is what healthy bull markets look like. Real money is flowing down the risk curve. Don’t overthink it—get exposed, manage risk, and let the trend pay you.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Geopolitics vs. Price Action: Price Wins Again

Markets shrugged off another round of trade-related headlines as former President Donald Trump announced steep new tariffs on imports from eight more countries, including a major increase on Brazilian goods.

The Brazil tariff jumped from ten percent to fifty percent, largely as a political response tied to recent tensions between the two governments.

Despite the headline risk, the market didn’t flinch. In fact, we saw strength pick up into the close, which tells us one thing clearly—this isn’t the kind of news traders care about right now.

The tape is strong enough to absorb geopolitical noise, and that’s exactly what you want to see in a risk-on environment.

More importantly, when headlines like this hit and price continues to push higher, it reinforces that buyers are in control.

Whether the market agrees or disagrees with the policy, price is what matters—and price is saying the path of least resistance is still up.

Nasdaq

The QQQ pushed higher yesterday on a spike in relative volume, though we’d still like to see stronger volume confirmation on the bigger upside expansions.

The move was largely powered by NVDA crossing the $4 trillion market cap mark—a major psychological and structural milestone that continues to pull the entire index higher. As long as NVDA leads, QQQ is likely to follow.

The leadership remains clear. This market is still being driven by large and mega-cap tech names, especially those tied to the AI cycle. Semiconductors, data center plays, and software giants like META and MSFT remain key areas of strength.

Until we see a shift in that leadership, the path of least resistance remains up, and the Nasdaq remains the core of the trend.

S&P 400 Midcap

MDY is doing exactly what you want to see after a strong breakout—pulling back into a tight volatility contraction. This is a classic trend health signal.

After the aggressive move through a major level, the price is now consolidating in a narrow range on declining volume, which shows that selling pressure is fading and the uptrend is being respected.

Yesterday’s session was especially telling. Just as it looked like we might get a weak close, buyers stepped in hard during the final hour, forming a red hammer candle right at the dense supply zone above $580. That’s a strong show of demand exactly where it needed to be.

Ideally, we want to see midcaps push through $590 to confirm the next leg higher. But we’re in no rush—the VCP is still forming, and more tightness would only improve the quality of the setup.

This is what healthy trends look like. Now we watch for expansion.

Russell 2000

Small caps just delivered a major technical win. IWM broke decisively above its point of control, tested that level intraday, and found immediate demand, resulting in a strong green hammer candle into the close.

That kind of reaction at a key level is a textbook signal of institutional support.

We’re now trading at five-month highs, with IWM fully reclaiming the entire drawdown from the early 2025 correction. That’s not just bullish, it’s a real statement telling us the rotation is real and healthy.

The action in small caps continues to impress, and the structure supports more upside ahead. This group is now leading from a position of strength, not lagging behind.

When you step back and put QQQ, MDY, and IWM side by side, the message is crystal clear, breadth is expanding, and this is a genuine bull market.

It’s not just five mega caps dragging the tape. Capital is flowing down the risk curve, and that’s exactly what a healthy uptrend looks like.

🧠 Mindset Check: Position Manager > Active Trader

The most overlooked edge in trading is discipline after entry. Not stock selection. Not timing. Not indicators. The traders who consistently outperform aren’t the ones constantly searching for the next idea, they’re the ones who know how to hold and manage exposure when the market is finally giving them what they want.

Trend-following is not about doing more. It’s about doing less with more size. When a move begins, your edge doesn’t come from finding five new tickers, it comes from pressing the one that’s already working.

That means building maximum exposure when the signal is cleanest, then transitioning into full position management mode: tightening stops, trailing strength, and letting time-in-trend compound the result.

Every breakout tempts you to react. But the professionals know the game isn’t won by reacting—it’s won by holding. That’s the real skill. Riding the expansion phase of a trend without second-guessing your system is where asymmetric returns are created.

If you're already in, the most profitable action today is probably doing nothing. If you're not in, your only job is preparing for the next moment of clarity—so when it comes, you're not late, you're sized.

Your performance won't come from how many trades you take. It will come from how long you can stay aligned when you're right.

FOCUSED STOCK
RBRK: Don’t Ignore This Breakout

RBRK is our top watch today. The stock put in a clear double bottom reversal back in March and April 2025, which kicked off a powerful trend shift. That reversal led to an aggressive rally from mid-April into early June before consolidating again. Now, we’re seeing signs of renewed momentum.

RBRK just bounced hard off the volume point of control at $88, reclaiming a key demand zone. This bounce powered the stock right through a dense supply area up to $91, and we’re now seeing premarket signs of a potential breakout through that level.

What’s even more important is the pickup in relative volume—especially yesterday as RBRK pushed into resistance. That tells us the buyers are stepping in early.

We’ll be watching for a 5-minute opening range high breakout on strong relative volume to trigger our long. If it fires cleanly, this becomes a high-quality continuation setup in a name with real trend potential.

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FOCUSED SECTOR
XLY: Coiling for the Next Leg

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is setting up cleanly. After breaking above the $215 point of control back in late June, the sector has been tightening just above that reclaimed level.

Price has now tested and held the rising 10EMA three separate times, with each time absorbing pullbacks and tightening further.

We’re also seeing individual names inside XLY starting to push, and in a market this strong, these kinds of consolidations often resolve with another leg higher.

The next target is clear: $230, where we see the next major volume shelf on the volume profile. That’s the likely destination if this coil expands.

Strong structure. Sector leadership. Volume backing it. This is a textbook momentum base.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you know when to add to a winning stock? How much should you add to that position?”

This is one of the most important questions in swing trading because the real money isn’t made on your entries. It’s made by pressing the winners when you're right.

This is the key: you should only add to a position if the setup is strong enough that you’d take it even if you had zero exposure. No exceptions.

By the time you’re thinking about adding, the trade should already be working. You’ve likely seen clean follow-through, your stop has been raised to breakeven or better, and you may have already sold a portion into strength.

At this point, you’re trading with house money. The stock is riding its 10EMA or 20EMA, and you’re watching for a tight pullback or flag to trigger the next wave. That’s when you add. Not before.

We typically size add-ons at 10-20 % of the remaining position as to not raise our cost basis too high. The structure needs to be just as clean as your first entry, with tight risk and confirmation from the broader market. You’re not averaging up emotionally—you’re scaling in with intention because the setup is still offering asymmetric risk.

Adding to winners is hands down the most efficient way to grow your returns. We run a low win-rate system by design, which means we don’t need to be right often. We just need to press the gas when we are.

Want to see how we actually trade this in real time—entries, adds, trims, exits, and all?

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