OVERVIEW
Risk Is Back On 🟩

Fed Cut Ignites Risk Appetite – First 25bp cut of the year with Powell signaling more to come; liquidity tailwind confirmed.

Nasdaq = Leadership – QQQ defended $584 demand with authority (+150% relative volume) → clear structural support, large/mega-cap tech is where flows are concentrated.

Mid/Small Caps Lag – MDY & IWM remain sloppy; Russell showed extreme intraday whipsaw (400–520% rel vol swings). For us, broad small-cap exposure = avoid.

Sector Priority – Technology & financials dominate leadership; cybersecurity (CIBR) showing clean breakout retest.

Focused Stock: HOOD – Top-ranked CANSLIM leader across two strong sectors, tight flag just under highs, watch ORH on relative volume.

Focused Group: CIBR – Breakout retest strength, anchored by PLTR (group leader) with dual AI + cybersecurity tailwind.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Powell Sends Stocks Higher: What To Know

Stocks are pushing higher after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year and signaled more easing is on the way. The central bank reduced rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and its “dot plot” points to at least two additional cuts before year-end. While Chair Jerome Powell warned that balancing stubborn inflation with a weakening labor market leaves “no risk-free path,” investors appear more focused on the promise of continued support.

Tech stocks are leading the charge. Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, sending Intel shares up nearly 30% in early trading and fueling optimism about renewed strength in the semiconductor sector. The move stops short of a manufacturing partnership but marks a significant show of confidence in Intel’s turnaround efforts.

On the earnings front, FedEx reports after the bell, with analysts expecting tariffs to weigh on results. Meanwhile, President Trump’s UK visit is drawing attention as Microsoft and Nvidia pledged new AI investments under a US-UK tech pact.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 51.48% | % over 50 EMA: 43.56% | % over 200 EMA: 57.42%

QQQ put in one of the most impressive sessions across the market yesterday. Price pulled directly into the rising 10-EMA on a now a well-established demand zone sitting right at $584.

That is the same area that capped price back on the August 13th highs and then rejected again on September 10th. After two more sessions of digestion, QQQ finally broke through, and yesterday marked the first real retest of that zone as support. Buyers stepped in decisively, defending with +150% relative volume and leaving behind a red hammer candle.

That kind of action confirms $584 as a structural demand shelf and reinforces QQQ as the strongest of the major indices.

For traders, this means the playbook is straightforward: focus on large and mega-cap technology. This is the segment carrying the tape, and leadership remains clean.

Looking at relative strength confirms the picture. The QQQ/SPX ratio continues to trend higher, showing clear outperformance of the Nasdaq over the broader S&P 500.

Importantly, the equal-weight Nasdaq (QQQE) vs SPX has also turned up, meaning this isn’t just a handful of mega-caps dragging the index higher as participation is broadening within the Nasdaq.

⚠️ One thing to watch: today’s gap-up. After a strong defense of $584, the open could attract chasers, but as we’ve seen repeatedly, these early strength gaps often fade. Be careful not to get trapped leaning too aggressive off the open.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 42.60% | % over 50 EMA: 57.39% | % over 200 EMA: 60.90%

Midcaps are looking much less impressive compared to the Nasdaq right now. Yesterday’s session was volatile and anything over $607 continues to trigger rejection, showing that this zone is acting as firm resistance.

A few weeks ago midcaps were leaders, but the last several sessions have been sloppy at best.

Yes, we did see the 20-day EMA attract some demand yesterday, but the structure doesn’t carry the same clean linear strength that QQQ has.

The MDY/SPX ratio has been weakening, which reinforces the message: midcaps are not where the leadership sits at the moment.

We are gapping up in premarket today, but this looks more like an overshoot than a shift in leadership. As traders, the goal is to allocate attention where money is flowing now and not where it flowed weeks ago.

We do expect MDY to hold above its rising 10-day EMA, and we’d be surprised to see it break meaningfully lower (the climate is just too strong for equities). That said, we’re not looking for fresh longs here; there are simply better segments to focus on.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 49.18% | % over 50 EMA: 63.01% | % over 200 EMA: 59.88%

The fade in IWM yesterday was incredible. We initially ripped into $244 on nearly 400% relative volume on the hourly candle (386% to be exact), only to see an even bigger 520% relative volume rejection right after.

That reversal flushed IWM below its hourly 50-EMA before demand finally stepped in, allowing the hourly 10-EMA to be reclaimed. Now we’re seeing a small gap-up in premarket.

The volatility here is unmatched… this is true whipsaw action, and exactly why in yesterday’s report we emphasized caution around Fed days, even when a rate cut is widely expected. Moves like this are less about trend and more about liquidity pockets being hunted on both sides.

For us, small caps right now are pretty much an avoid unless the stock itself is directly tied to a strong thematic driver e.g. think quantum computing, AI infrastructure, or another segment with a clear catalyst.

Broad small-cap exposure just isn’t offering the clean trends we want to allocate risk toward.

FOCUSED STOCK
HOOD: Leading Stocks, Leading Segment

ADR%: 4.87% | Off 52-week high: -3.9% | Above 52-week low: +451.8%

HOOD checks nearly every CANSLIM-style leadership box: it’s a top-ranked growth stock in two of the strongest sectors (financials + technology), trading just off all-time highs with accelerating volume patterns.

The tight flag around $117 after its September 8th breakout is classic digestion and exactly the type of contraction that often precedes another expansion leg.

Our execution focus today:

• Primary trigger: A break of the 5-min opening range high on strong relative volume, signaling marginal buyers are pressing.

• Secondary trigger: A pullback entry into $115–117 demand if the gap-up fades, giving us lower-risk positioning.

FOCUSED GROUP
CIBR: A Very Strong Breakout Retest

CIBR is showing strong leadership after breaking out of its base on September 8th. Yesterday’s dip into the 10-day EMA was met with immediate demand, a classic retest of the breakout level rather than weakness.

The resilience here reinforces that institutions are supporting this group.

Within CIBR, PLTR stands out as the clear leader, continuing to set up for potential fresh highs. More broadly, the group is benefiting from a dual tailwind: the secular demand for cybersecurity and the broader AI-driven growth environment, which continues to attract institutional flows.

Notice how PLTR also formed the same exact chart pattern as its CIBR group- this should tell you all that PLTR almost single handedly drives CIBR.