NEWS
Santander Hits Major €100 Billion Milestone Amid EU Bank Rally

Banco Santander SA has become the first European Union bank in nearly a decade to reach a €100 billion ($108 billion) market valuation. Its shares climbed 1.8% to €6.62, pushing its capitalization to €100.3 billion — a level last seen in 2015, also by Santander.

The bank's surge is part of a broader rally in European banking, driven by the European Central Bank’s decision to end negative interest rates in 2022. That move significantly improved profitability for banks and enabled larger payouts to investors, sparking renewed interest in the sector. European bank stocks have since been on their strongest run since before 2000.

Santander’s stock has risen nearly 50% since the beginning of 2025, making it one of the top performers among European banks this year. While other major EU lenders like BNP Paribas and Intesa Sanpaolo are approaching the €100 billion mark, Santander remains the only one to have surpassed it.

JPMorgan analysts remain bullish on European banks, citing positive impacts from new fiscal policies across the EU, particularly in Germany. Meanwhile, outside the EU, institutions like UBS in Switzerland and HSBC in the UK have also surpassed €100 billion valuations.

Santander, Spain’s largest bank, has recently announced plans to increase investor returns. Chairman Ana Botín emphasized in a recent interview that the bank’s growth strategy will focus on expanding in the Americas.

MARKET
Risk Assets Continue To Break Higher

The market showed continued strength in yesterday's session, but there's still a notable absence of volume and participation, which was expected to be much higher for a follow-through day. It seems many market participants are holding back, likely waiting for tomorrow's GDP data and Friday's PCE data before making any major moves. Stocks are also navigating shifting sands, responding to the changing tone on tariffs from Trump. After indicating on Friday—and again on Monday—that he might offer flexibility or “breaks” on reciprocal duties set to take effect on April 2, the major indices saw a rally.

What’s particularly interesting is that, despite the low liquidity—evident from the very low relative volume across all the major indices—the market leaders have continued to show strength. Right now, the growth sectors are driving the charge. We’re seeing significant breakouts across everything from Technology (XLK) to Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Meanwhile, the defensive segments, such as Consumer Staples (XLP), are getting hit hard. This divergence suggests that, while overall market participation is low, the leaders in growth are still pushing forward, and investors are favoring risk-on assets over defensive plays. We'll dive deeper into this dynamic in a moment.

Take note of Bitcoin (BTCUSD), which serves as an excellent proxy for gauging the general risk appetite of investors—a tool we actually use to assess whether big money is leaning toward risk-on or risk-off behavior. Right now, BTCUSD is pushing higher, forming a low-volume contraction just below its key 50-EMA on the daily chart, after building a series of higher lows and reclaiming its lost 200-EMA.

This is a positive development, especially when you pair it with the performance of leading stocks in the space, like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has broken higher and seen solid follow-through. These signs are indicative of a returning risk appetite, and they provide further validation that investor sentiment may very well be shifting back toward a more risk-on environment.

For full transparency, we currently hold a long position in MicroStrategy (MSTR).

Nasdaq

This is the moment when we need to highlight some red flags and inject a dose of cold reality that technical analysis often brings. The extremely low relative volume on the QQQ is concerning. Typically, price action leads the direction, but volume plays a crucial role in confirming that direction—it acts as the fuel for the move. When we see significant shifts in trend without a corresponding rise in volume, it’s a warning sign that the move might not have the necessary conviction to sustain itself.

We’ve observed the QQQ breaking through significant levels of dense supply, as indicated by the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). As the QQQ pushes higher, the supply density decreases, which boosts our confidence that the bottom might have been formed. However, with participation still relatively low, any substantial injection of selling pressure could easily reverse the move.

As we approach the end of the week, we have some major data releases — GDP and PCE — which could be why big players are staying on the sidelines for now. However, our main focus remains on the behavior of the leading stocks. If they start breaking higher and continue to perform well, that’s all that matters to us. So far, we’ve definitely seen positive signs.

S&P Midcap 400

While the midcaps showed low participation in yesterday's inside doji candle, it's actually not a bad sign. Yes, the volume was low, but it’s clear that demand stepped in during the intraday retracement. This suggests that there’s still support at these levels. However, the declining 200-EMA and 50-EMA just above, at the dense supply level of $558, still pose a challenge for a breakout. With the volume being low, we’re remaining cautious in this area, with large caps generally speaking appearing stronger.

Russell 2000

The small caps are resting well on their 20-EMA they managed to recover again on very low volume but actually appearing like they arte contracitng here before what appearts to be a potential test before a breakout to the upside. The small caps are oging to be by far the most sensitive out fo all of the gfroups so if we do see soem type of amjor flood in volume today, it isvery likjelyt this is where the biggest realtive momentu mwill come in and if risk appetitres come back, its these araes which wiull stad to make the greatest % return

DAILY FOCUS
Cut The Noise: What Do The Leaders Tell You?

Right now, we're in a potential "risk-on" stage, with the market showing signs of life, but caution remains paramount. Despite the optimism, the low volume we're seeing across the board is a red flag that can’t be ignored. Participation is still lacking, and with key data releases like GDP and PCE coming up, we’re walking a fine line between optimism and uncertainty.

In times like these, one of the most effective ways to cut through the noise is to focus on what truly matters—the leaders. The stocks that showed relative strength during the previous breakdown, those that weathered the storm and held up better than the broader market, are now your main focus. Are they acting constructively? Are they breaking out with volume, or are they faltering on low participation?

Now, don’t force exposure if it isn’t there. If you miss a breakout, especially a clean opening range high breakout, don’t chase. The market has a lot left to prove, and forcing trades when the setup isn’t clear can lead to unnecessary risk.

Track those leaders closely and only act when the conditions are right. If they continue to show strength, that’s your cue. But if they falter, be ready to step back. The market is still figuring itself out, so be patient and selective in your approach.

WATCHLIST
Some Very Explosive Plays

GRRR: Gorilla Technology Group Inc.

• RRR is a name we’ve traded before, capitalizing on its big breakout in early February. Now, we’re seeing another tight range forming as volume dries up, price action contracts, and money flows back into the broader AI and technology sectors.

• GRRR has a very high Average Daily Range (ADR), which means it's a momentum leader. It’s not uncommon to see the stock make +100% moves in just a few days when it breaks out. Right now, we’re closely watching the $28.90 level, but we’re not trying to predict a breakout. Instead, we’ll only look to enter if we see the breakout actually materialize.

RGTI: Rigetti Computing, Inc.

• RGTI is by far the stock we’re most excited about right now. We’ve seen it form a textbook technical base, with volume gradually drying up as the stock builds a series of higher lows.

• It’s now contracting just below its breakout level, and the key moving averages are also tightening—this is one of the clearest signs that we’re about to see a significant move in either direction.

• This stock is very explosive so if we do see a breakout on high relative volume, we will need to act fast.