OVERVIEW
Equities Continue To Look Strong

🟨 Moderate Risk-On: Compression turning into expansion across key indices.

📊 Breadth Improving: More names holding breakouts, not fading them. Momentum setups continue showing follow-through.

🌍 Macro Watch: Trump signals openness to cutting China tariffs ahead of trade talks. While 145% duties remain, a reduction could revive China-U.S. momentum — fueling bullish bets in FXI, GXC, KC, and BABA.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Price Action Speaks Louder Than Headlines

President Trump’s latest endorsement of cutting tariffs on China ahead of weekend talks adds another layer to the evolving trade landscape. While the 145% tariff on China remains intact for now, speculation is building that the administration may reduce it significantly to de-escalate tensions and restart negotiations. Trump’s recent posts on Truth Social suggest he’s open to this pivot, though the new rate could still come in higher than many had anticipated.

While the U.S.–U.K. trade deal isn’t a market-moving headline on its own, it serves as a critical test case for broader trade agreements. If the administration successfully follows this up with additional deals, it could act as a much-needed catalyst for a market weighed down by macro uncertainty.

On the charts, the market is sending a clear message: strength. Breakouts are holding, earnings gaps are seeing follow-through, and more growth stocks are emerging from consolidation. The technical picture is bullish — a fresh, upward leg seems to be forming.

Nasdaq

• Large-cap tech powered through the upper bounds of its recent range yesterday, with only a minor fade into the close — a constructive pause, not a rejection. QQQ continues to ride ascending short-term moving averages, and volume is starting to expand into strength.

• Crucially, the March range highs still haven’t been fully taken out — with a clear low-volume pocket just above $490 on the visible range volume profile. A clean move through that level could trigger a fast repricing.

• Individual large & mega-cap names remain strong, further reinforcing conviction in the move. Confidence stays high as structure builds.

S&P 400 Midcap

• Midcaps saw an intraday rejection at the 200-day EMA yesterday, but on low volume — and price failed to reclaim the point of control around $540. That level is the key battleground today.

• Still, the overall structure remains constructive. While price action may be choppy intraday, a retest of the 200-day EMA remains likely before the close. Relative strength versus large caps is notable — many midcap names are outperforming quietly, and the overhead supply above the 200-day is thin all the way to recent highs.

  Importantly, there’s a strong layer of support beneath: the rising 10, 20, and 50-day EMAs are all stacked below, offering a solid floor for any pullbacks.

Russell 2000

• Small caps are where the momentum is. Yesterday’s breakout above the declining trendline from late February came on a spike in relative volume — a key sign of real participation.

• But follow-through matters. Today’s job is to confirm the breakout by holding above the point of control (POC) at $201. Ideally, we see that level act as a launchpad toward the $205+ zone, which represents the final layer of overhead supply on the visible range volume profile (VRVP).

⚠️ Key Point: Seeing relative outperformance in small caps suggests a clear shift toward risk-on — buyers are becoming more aggressive across the risk curve.

🧠 Mindset Check: Don’t Get Cocky — Sell Into Strength

The market has been giving some solid moves, but remember: it’s crucial to sell into strength, not weakness. As your position moves in your favor, your position size should generally get smaller, not larger. It’s easy to get greedy and let a winning position grow beyond what’s prudent, but this is where traders often get caught — especially when the momentum starts to slow down.

The real edge isn’t just in making gains, but in knowing when to scale back, cut your losses, and avoid chasing the market when things get overheated. Don’t let the adrenaline cloud your judgment. Patience isn’t passive; it’s strategic.

Keep your risk management tight. If you're riding a strong trend, stay in it. If you’re chasing moves at the wrong time, take a step back and reassess. The trend is your friend, but don’t let it lull you into a false sense of security.

Greed is your enemy. Be disciplined about scaling back, so you’re not holding too large a position when momentum starts to stall. The goal is steady profits over time, not squeezing every last bit out of a move.

Remember: Let others get overconfident — you’re a professional.

FOCUSED STOCK
RPID: Rapid Micro Biosystems, Inc.

• RPID attempted a breakout in yesterday’s session — and failed. Classic example of why we avoid buying breakouts right before earnings: 9 out of 10 times, it ends badly.

• That said, the company just posted strong numbers, and the stock is now launching toward recent highs on volume.

• This is a tricky name: thinly traded, choppy structure, and small-cap volatility. It moves fast — both ways.

• It isn’t a clean long term swing setup. Think of it more as a momentum burst candidate — high velocity, short-duration opportunity if it reclaims prior highs with authority.

FOCUSED SECTOR
XSD: Semiconductors

• The semiconductor group is finally gaining traction.

• Yesterday’s breakout in XSD above its now-rising 50-day EMA — on ascending volume — is the first real sign of momentum returning to the space.

• This group has lagged in recent weeks, but leadership may be shifting. With XSD reclaiming trend, names like NVDA and TSM are positioned to benefit if this rotation sticks.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you manage your open positions after they break out?”

Once a trade breaks out, we don’t sit on our hands. We always look to scale out into strength during that initial momentum burst — that’s where emotions run hottest and liquidity is thickest. Our personal position management method focuses on banking partial profits early, reducing risk, and freeing up mental capital.

From there, we shift into swing-mode. We trail stops using rising short-term moving averages — typically the 10-day and 20-day EMAs — to stay in sync with trend continuation. If the stock holds structure and consolidates well, we’re not afraid to add back on secondary or tertiary breakouts.

This allows us to stay in control without micromanaging. We don’t aim to top-tick exits — we aim to ride waves.

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