MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s All You Need To Know

• Today’s market is no longer trading like it is waiting for another crisis headline. It is trading like one of the biggest macro overhangs from the last two weeks has just been removed.

• The key development is the U.S.-Iran agreement. Trump announced that the deal is complete, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen and the U.S. naval blockade being lifted. That immediately changes the market’s inflation and liquidity calculus.

• The pressure point was never just “Middle East risk” in the abstract. It was the risk that a closed Hormuz would keep oil elevated, feed into headline inflation, keep central banks on edge, and punish long-duration growth just as semiconductors and the MAG7 were already trying to repair.

• That pressure has eased fast. U.S. crude is down around 5% toward $80 per barrel, and that is exactly why equities are catching such a strong bid. Lower oil is not just good for consumers. It lowers the probability of another inflation shock, helps ease margin pressure in transport-heavy sectors, and gives the Fed more room to stay patient rather than being forced into a more hawkish posture.

• You can see that relief clearly in the global tape. Japan’s Nikkei surged to a record intraday high and closed around 5% higher, South Korea’s Kospi rallied more than 5%, Europe is firmer, and U.S. equities are opening with broad strength. The Dow is up more than 600 points, the S&P 500 is higher by more than 1%, and the Nasdaq is leading with a gain above 2%.

• The sector response also makes sense. Energy is being sold as crude falls, while airlines, autos, cruise lines, travel and other fuel-sensitive areas are catching strong bids. This is exactly the rotation you would expect when the market starts pricing out an oil shock. The groups that benefited from higher crude lose some momentum, while the groups that were punished by fuel and inflation pressure recover quickly.

• The second major factor is SpaceX. Friday’s IPO was an enormous success. SpaceX rose 19% in its debut, finished with a market cap above $2T, and is up again today in its first full session of trading. That matters because this was the largest IPO in history and one of the cleanest tests of speculative appetite we have had all year.

• The market passed the first test. A weak SpaceX debut would have been a serious warning that investors had reached saturation in mega-cap growth, AI infrastructure and long-duration technology stories. Instead, demand was strong enough to absorb the offering and push the stock higher. That is supportive for broader risk appetite, especially after the recent semiconductor unwind.

• However, there is still a nuance here. Retail demand for SpaceX was enormous, with individual investors buying around $118M of shares on balance during Friday’s session, but that came alongside selling in several major year-to-date winners, including Micron, Marvell and Robinhood. In other words, SpaceX did not lift every boat. It absorbed capital from other parts of the speculative growth complex.

• The market is reallocating. SpaceX has confirmed that demand for major innovation stories is still alive, but it has also shown that capital is becoming more selective. That fits the broader tape we have been discussing: semiconductors can still rally, but they are no longer moving effortlessly. MAG7 can bounce, but leadership needs to prove it has repaired. Mid-caps, small caps, financials, healthcare and select defensive groups are still important because the market is not acting like a one-theme AI melt-up anymore.

• The other point to watch this week is the Fed. Futures are pricing an overwhelming probability that rates stay unchanged at this week’s meeting, which means the market is unlikely to be shocked by the headline decision. The more important signal will be the tone. If oil stays lower and the Fed acknowledges easing energy pressure, that helps the risk-on case. If policymakers focus on still-elevated inflation and refuse to give the market comfort, the rally may need to digest.

• The Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations, with new orders and shipments slowing while prices remained elevated. That is not a disaster, but it is a reminder that the economy is not perfectly clean underneath the surface. Growth is cooling in places, while price pressure has not fully disappeared.

Nasdaq

54.45%: over 20 EMA | 51.48%: over 50 EMA | 58.41%: over 200 EMA

• QQQ is continuing to repair after last week’s test of the rising 50-day EMA and 10-week moving average.

• The key event was the bounce from that support zone last Tuesday. Price came directly into the 50-day EMA/10-week area, found demand, and then expanded higher with strong follow-through into Thursday and Friday.

• Friday was always going to be a noisy session because of the SpaceX IPO and the broader liquidity dynamics around that event, but the important point is that QQQ held the higher-timeframe support and did not break down.

• This morning, the Nasdaq is pushing higher again in premarket on elevated volume as the broader market gaps up aggressively. The risk-on message is also being confirmed across other assets.

• The VIX is getting hit hard, down roughly 8%, while gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum are all spiking. That combination tells us liquidity is moving back into risk assets rather than hiding purely in defensive exposure.

• The weekly chart is also important. Last week’s bounce came on 126% of the 20-week average volume, which was the highest weekly relative volume reading since March 2026. That is significant because it shows the test of the 10-week moving average attracted real participation, not just a low-volume technical bounce.

• That said, we would still be careful trading the open. After a strong gap higher, the first move can easily fade, especially if the market opens too extended intraday. The better read is that the support defense was successful and the intermediate trend remains intact, but the cleanest entries were on the pullback into the 50-day EMA and 10-week moving average, not after the gap higher.

• For now, we expect continuation, but we would rather buy controlled pullbacks than chase strength into the open.

S&P 400 Midcap

72.18%: over 20 EMA | 61.40%: over 50 EMA | 60.40%: over 200 EMA

• The mid-cap complex remains the area where we have the highest conviction.

• MDY came down to test the rising 10-week moving average around $667, held that level, and then expanded aggressively from support. That is exactly the type of higher-timeframe reaction we want to see in a leading index.

• We remain extremely bullish on mid-caps because they are showing the best balance of relative strength, technical structure and extension. Unlike QQQ and the mega-cap growth complex, MDY is not stretched to an uncomfortable degree. It is only around 2.8 ATR multiples above the 50-day moving average, which gives it far more room to continue expanding.

• Relative volume is also increasing at the same time as relative strength improves. That is the right combination. It tells us buyers are not just passively defending the index; they are beginning to push exposure into the group again.

• From our perspective, MDY still has the most attractive upside potential across the major capitalization-weighted indices. The structure is clean, the 10-week EMA is holding, and the group has not suffered the same type of damage we saw in the most crowded mega-cap growth areas.

• This remains one of the best places to press long exposure, particularly through the strongest mid-cap stocks and sectors.

Russell 2000

68.44%: over 20 EMA | 64.01%: over 50 EMA | 61.89%: over 200 EMA

• IWM is also improving and continues to support the broader risk-on message.

• Small caps are expanding higher on stronger relative volume, and the relative strength rating versus the SPX is now around 80, making IWM one of the strongest major index reads from a relative-strength standpoint.

• The Russell 2000 is slightly more extended than MDY, sitting around 3.3 ATR multiples above the 50-day moving average, so we would not chase the open aggressively. Just like QQQ, there is a reasonable chance we see some kind of intraday fade after the gap higher.

• But the broader structure is much healthier than it was a few weeks ago. Small caps are participating, the 10-week EMA is holding, and the index is no longer being ignored while only mega-cap technology leads the market.

• That matters because a true risk-on market normally broadens. It does not only rely on Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple and a handful of semiconductor names. When mid-caps and small caps start expanding together, it tells us liquidity is moving down the market-cap spectrum.

• The ideal approach is still to avoid chasing the first push and look for pullbacks into support, but IWM is now clearly confirming broader risk appetite.

FOCUSED STOCK
NVDA: Pullback Long Entry

• Our focused stock today is Nvidia. Nvidia gave traders a very strong pullback-long opportunity last week when it came down to test the rising 10-week and 20-week moving averages, found support, and then expanded higher.

• That was the correct area to get involved. At this point, we would not be buying Nvidia on breakout highs. The cleaner trade would be a controlled pullback after the gap higher, ideally filling back toward the 50-day EMA and 10-week moving average around $206.50. If price pulls into that area and buyers step in again, that would be the higher-quality long entry.

• The bigger picture is still constructive. Nvidia remains one of the most important leadership names in the market, and the fact that it held the 10-week/20-week support zone last week matters.

FOCUSED GROUP
XLI: Industrials Finally Break Out

• XLI has built a large base since February 17th, 2026, and the structure has become increasingly tight. Within that larger base, there is also a slight cup-and-handle formation, with the cup forming between March 2nd and April 8th, followed by a long handle that has developed over roughly 60 days.

• That is exactly the type of structure we want to see before a potential expansion move.

• The relative strength rating is also solid at 67 versus the SPX, and the group is beginning to look ready for a breakout. This matters because industrials are not part of the crowded mega-cap technology trade, but they can still participate aggressively in a broad risk-on tape.

• From our perspective, XLI is one of the more important groups to watch now. The base is large, the contraction has been long enough, and the broader market is starting to support cyclical exposure again.