MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s All You Need To Know

• The market continues to absorb geopolitical stress far better than most would expect. Even with oil holding above $100, renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty surrounding whether Iran negotiations produce anything concrete, equities are still sitting near highs. That continues to show that underlying risk appetite has not materially broken.

• What stands out most is that leadership remains concentrated in growth. This is not a broad, indiscriminate rally — capital is still flowing very selectively into the strongest parts of the market, particularly areas where earnings, narrative, and momentum are aligning.

• Large growth continues to hold extremely well, and that in itself is surprising given the macro backdrop. Normally, with this level of geopolitical uncertainty and energy volatility, you would expect much heavier pressure across speculative assets. Instead, buyers are still aggressively supporting many of the leading growth names.

• More importantly, entirely new breakout opportunities are now beginning to emerge. Quantum computing is one of the clearest examples. That group is heating up quickly, with several names resolving from multi-week bases and beginning to show sharp relative strength expansion. Once these thematic pockets start attracting momentum participation, they can often accelerate very quickly.

• Uranium is also beginning to reassert itself. The group is seeing fresh upside pressure, supported both by improving technical structures and by the broader global energy conversation becoming increasingly focused on long-term supply security. This is especially important while oil remains elevated, because capital is increasingly distinguishing between traditional energy exposure and strategic nuclear exposure.

• Earnings continue to support the broader tape. More than 80% of companies reporting so far have beaten expectations, which is helping institutions remain engaged even while macro headlines remain unstable.

• We will discuss the strongest of those opportunities in the focused section below, particularly where we are seeing the cleanest setups in quantum computing and uranium.

S&P 500

65.20%: over 20 EMA | 54.47%: over 50 EMA | 56.66%: over 200 EMA

• SPY continues to consolidate very constructively. Tuesday’s session completed the gap fill down into roughly 701, fully retracing the Friday gap-up zone exactly where we wanted to see demand appear. That in itself is healthy because it confirms buyers are still willing to defend prior breakout territory rather than allowing price to drift materially lower.

• Yesterday’s candle was extremely tight. The intraday range itself was only 0.43%, roughly three times smaller than the average expected daily range. If you include the 0.75% gap-up at the open, total movement was effectively normal, but the key takeaway is that intraday volatility compressed sharply.

• That usually points to a market entering a short-term base-building phase rather than immediate directional weakness.

• Relative volume remained low, which continues to reinforce the broader point that this rally is still advancing without meaningful participation expansion. That remains the main caution, but importantly, price is not breaking down.

• At this stage, a pullback toward 696.50 remains welcome rather than bearish. That would bring price directly into the rising 10-day moving average and allow the prior supply zone to fully convert into demand. For long exposure, that would likely create a much cleaner entry than chasing current levels.

S&P 400 Midcap

77.94%: over 20 EMA | 66.41%: over 50 EMA | 60.90%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps are already moving closer to that scenario. Yesterday’s pullback was more pronounced, with a 1.82% candle range, roughly 1.15x the average daily range expected. That gives the mid-cap complex the clearest near-term probability of testing its rising 10-day moving average around 655.

• That level matters because it sits directly on dense visible-range volume support. At that zone, we still see stronger buyer participation than seller participation, with roughly 700,000 shares traded green versus only 500,000 red. From our perspective, that keeps 655 as a very attractive pullback-long level rather than a breakdown point.

Russell 2000

81.06%: over 20 EMA | 72.00%: over 50 EMA | 62.38%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps remain highly resilient. Higher lows continue to form, price remains tight, and relative volume dropped sharply again to just 47% yesterday.

• A pullback toward 270 in the small caps would be entirely normal. That would retest the prior breakout zone and align with the rising short-term trend structure. After nearly 18% upside in four weeks, some digestion here would actually improve the structure.

FOCUSED STOCK
QBTS: The Growth Rally is Really

• QBTS remains one of the strongest technical setups in the market right now. The breakout that began on April 14 and accelerated on April 15 came with exceptional volume confirmation, including roughly 400% relative volume on the key expansion day.

• Since that breakout, price has tightened significantly while volume has declined, which is exactly what you want to see after an aggressive expansion move. That suggests supply is drying up rather than momentum fading.

• Relative strength is already at 90 versus the SPX, and importantly, QBTS is now holding above both its 200-day moving average and 20-week moving average for the first time since January.

• From our perspective, quantum computing is becoming one of the strongest emerging themes in the market, and QBTS currently has one of the cleanest structures inside that theme.

• This is currently our highest conviction stock setup in the market. If this base resolves higher, the probability of a stage two continuation move becomes very significant.

FOCUSED GROUP
URA: Huge Breakouts in Uranium

• Uranium is now reasserting itself very aggressively. The group broke higher again with yesterday’s move confirming continuation above the prior consolidation zone.

• Relative volume expanded sharply to 151% of the 20-day average, which is exactly what had been missing from many broader index moves. That makes this breakout materially stronger from a participation standpoint.

• Relative strength is already at 89 versus the SPX, placing uranium among the strongest groups currently trading.

• The breakout is especially important because it comes after consolidation above the point of control on both daily and weekly structure. That usually creates much stronger continuation conditions once price clears.

• There is also a broader macro reason for the move. Uranium continues to trade increasingly in line with growth themes, particularly because nuclear power is becoming central to the long-term AI and data centre energy discussion.

• Our preferred names in the group remain:

  • UEC — highest quality setup currently

  • UROY — strong secondary structure

  • OKLO — much more speculative, but significantly higher volatility potential

• If quantum computing remains strong, uranium can continue to benefit alongside it because both are increasingly sitting inside the same long-duration capital narrative.