MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s All You Need To Know

• The market continues to rally aggressively, and at this stage the most important point is that bulls still have clear control of price even though participation remains unusually light underneath the surface.

• We are seeing another session where futures are pushing higher on renewed optimism that the U.S.–Iran conflict may move toward formal de-escalation, after Donald Trump said the war “should be ending pretty soon” and confirmed a fresh ceasefire framework between Israel and Lebanon.

• That geopolitical relief remains the immediate catalyst, but what stands out now is how little fear remains in price considering how unresolved the situation still technically is.

• There is a small degree of complacency developing here because markets are increasingly behaving as though de-escalation is already fully secured, while in reality the ceasefire remains fragile and highly headline-sensitive.

• At the same time, oil is easing lower again, with West Texas Intermediate pulling back sharply, which naturally supports equities because it removes short-term pressure from inflation expectations and energy-sensitive sectors.

• The difficulty is that this entire move higher is still happening on low volume, which keeps the rally structurally less convincing than the price alone suggests.

• Low-volume rallies are not automatically bearish, but they do often reflect hesitation and in this case likely because many larger participants still do not fully trust the geopolitical backdrop.

• That said, price continues to override caution for now because leadership remains exceptionally strong, especially inside growth.

• The major growth complex is still holding remarkably well, and that has become the defining feature of this rally: large-cap technology continues absorbing supply rather than failing at highs.

• Underneath the surface, the broader issue is still participation. The move higher has been powerful, but it remains led by select leadership rather than a fully uniform expansion across every risk segment.

• Even so, with breakouts holding, breadth climbing, and pullbacks remaining shallow, the market is still giving bulls very little technical reason to step aside yet.

• The correct stance here is not blind optimism, but recognising that low volume has not yet translated into failed price behaviour, and until that changes, momentum remains intact.

S&P 500

74.15%: over 20 EMA | 52.48%: over 50 EMA | 53.28%: over 200 EMA

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust continues to push aggressively higher, and once again the striking feature is how little volume is required to keep price advancing.

• Yesterday’s session printed only 57% of the 20-day average relative volume, yet price remained firmly above all-time highs and is now opening with another 0.84% gap up.

• What makes this move more important is that it is no longer isolated to equities alone — we are seeing a broad risk expansion taking place simultaneously across cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, and uranium.

• That kind of cross-asset participation usually signals that capital is moving decisively into risk rather than simply rotating inside equities.

• Breadth is also becoming increasingly powerful. We now have 74% of S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day moving average, while participation over both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages continues climbing, which confirms that this rally is broadening underneath the surface.

• This matters because once markets sit firmly above all-time highs with breadth expanding like this, retail participation usually begins accelerating as traders start reacting to breakout conditions.

• We still need to respect the fact that price can easily fade intraday after a gap open.

• On the visible range profile, roughly 3 million shares traded green yesterday at highs versus only 1.85 million traded red, which means if price retraces back into that zone and fails to bounce immediately, those late buyers can quickly become trapped and create short-term selling pressure.

• Structurally though, this remains a very firm risk-on signal.

• We are not yet in dangerous technical extension territory either: SPY is only 3.23 ATR multiples above the 50-day moving average, and historically true reversal risk tends to emerge closer to 5–6 ATR multiples.

• Breadth is high, but still below the 80–83% zone where reversals tend to become statistically more common.

• Our base case remains further upside unless price begins failing at gap support.

S&P 400 Midcap

80.50%: over 20 EMA | 58.25%: over 50 EMA | 58.75%: over 200 EMA

• SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust did reject where expected near $656, which is exactly the same supply band where heavy distribution took place between early February and early March.

• Even so, the ETF is opening again with roughly a 1% gap up, which suggests sellers are still not gaining control.

• Mid caps remain the weakest of the three major capitalisation groups right now, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 clearly showing stronger momentum leadership.

• A major reason for that is short-term internal extension: roughly 81% of mid-cap stocks are already above their 20-day EMA, which naturally slows momentum as short-term upside becomes crowded.

• That said, the earlier double bottom off the rising 200-day moving average / 50-week EMA remains one of the strongest structural reversal signals we have seen this year in mid caps.

• So while price is pausing, the broader structure still remains constructive.

Russell 2000

85.07%: over 20 EMA | 66.51%: over 50 EMA | 59.12%: over 200 EMA

• iShares Russell 2000 ETF remains the strongest expression of risk appetite in the market right now.

• Internally, 85% of Russell stocks are above their 20-day EMA and 67% are above the 50-day EMA, which makes this by far the most extended segment from a breadth standpoint.

• This is also why caution matters if exposure has not already been built.

• Not because we believe a pullback is imminent — we do not currently think that is the highest probability outcome — but because the easiest entries were lower.

• Technically, IWM is still only 2.81 ATR multiples above the 50-day moving average, so there is still room before mean reversion becomes statistically dangerous.

• More importantly, the Russell should always be viewed as a proxy for true growth appetite.

• It is extremely unusual to see small caps outperform this aggressively unless larger institutional capital is participating underneath the surface.

• Retail does not create this kind of broad relative strength by itself.

• The market is clearly pricing in a higher probability that Middle East stress continues de-escalating, and small caps are responding exactly as they should in that environment.

FOCUSED STOCK
MU: The Strongest AI Stock For Over 1 Year

ADR%: 6.68% | Off 52-week high: -3.0% | Above 52-week low: +598.2%

• Micron remains one of the highest-quality names in the AI complex and was one of our strongest trades of 2025.

• The weekly structure is especially important here because MU completed a highly valid Morning Star reversal, one of the highest-probability weekly reversal formations.

• The first leg came during the week of 23 March, followed by the deep flush during the week of 30 March, where price sold hard toward 312, found demand, and then reversed sharply.

• The following weekly candle nearly engulfed the prior sell candle, which completed the reversal sequence.

• We then received confirmation once price pushed above the weekly point of control near 414.

• Since then, price has continued expanding while volume has tightened over the last two candles, which is exactly what you want to see before continuation.

• The current contraction suggests supply is drying up again before another move.

• Structurally, MU is now attempting to push through fresh highs again.

• If you zoom fully out, Micron remains arguably the strongest stock anywhere in the AI complex.

• It is up roughly 600% over the last 52 weeks, and carries 99 relative strength versus the broad market, which places it at the absolute top tier of current leadership.