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The Market Still Looks Weak

Bill O'Reilly Interviews Wall Street Expert to Help YOU Achieve the American Dream

"We're going to bring back the American Dream... bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer, and stronger than ever before." - President Donald Trump

During Trump's first term, 8 million Americans became millionaires despite constant resistance from Democrats and even some Republicans in his cabinet.

Now, with Republicans controlling both houses and the Fed cutting rates, everything is aligned for even greater growth.

Bill O'Reilly interviews investment expert Alexander Green who reveals details on 6 stocks with the potential to soar under Trump's pro-business policies.

Exposure Status: Risk Off

OVERVIEW
Fading Strength, Lingering Weakness

The market gave us another session of indecision yesterday, with no clear direction following Wednesday’s Fed announcement. The central bank’s decision to hold rates steady was fully priced in, but the initial relief rally lacked conviction. Stocks like PLTR and BE opened strong, only to fade throughout the day—another reminder that traders remain hesitant to take on overnight risk.

This kind of price action signals uncertainty. We’re now four weeks into a losing streak, with market headwinds stemming from trade policy concerns, recession fears, and a broad pullback in megacap tech. These aren't just random fluctuations—they reflect deeper issues in market structure.

One key takeaway: In tough environments like this, preservation matters more than participation. The best traders don’t try to force trades when the market isn’t offering easy opportunities. Instead, they focus on protecting capital, waiting for setups with real conviction.

GLD Daily Chart

The big funds and institutional players continue to favor defensive assets like gold (GLD), which has been grinding higher alongside gold miners (GDX). The ongoing uncertainty in equities—marked by hesitation to hold overnight risk and weak follow-through on rallies—has kept capital flowing into commodities and other safe-haven plays.

GDX Daily Chart

This is a clear sign of risk-off behavior. When major players are piling into gold instead of high-beta stocks, it tells us that confidence in equities remains low. Until we see a shift in positioning—meaning real buying in growth stocks and risk-on sectors—it’s tough to expect a sustained rally in the broader market.

Nasdaq

QQQ VRVP Daily Chart

The QQQ’s recent bounce is losing steam, with four straight sessions of contraction just below the declining 10-EMA. That level has acted as resistance, rejecting price each time it’s been tested. The volume profile reinforces this—participation is clearly low, and buyers remain hesitant to step in with real conviction.

This lack of urgency from buyers suggests they anticipate more downside or at least further chop ahead. When institutions are aggressive, we see sharp moves with expanding volume—right now, we’re getting the opposite. Until that changes, the path of least resistance remains lower.

QQQ Inverted Daily Chart

Here’s a useful exercise for times like this—take a look at the exact same QQQ chart, but flipped upside down. What stands out to you?

When inverted, the setup looks eerily similar to a classic volatility contraction pattern (VCP) or even a bull flag. This perspective can help cut through bias and highlight the underlying structure of price action. If this were a setup you were looking to buy in a strong market, wouldn't it look constructive?

Now flip it back—what does that tell you about the real trend? It is very clear that this much more likely to be a bear flag forming before another leg lower, the same way that the inverted charts tells you its most likely to be a bull flag before a big breakout higher.

S&P Midcap 400

Midcaps are displaying the same weakness, with MDY fading sharply against its declining 20-EMA. Yesterday’s session wiped out nearly all of Tuesday’s gains, showing clear seller aggression despite overall low volume. The lack of participation signals hesitation from buyers, while the dense volume cluster on the VRVP highlights the importance of this resistance level—one that the market has so far failed to reclaim.

Russell 2000

IWM VRVP Daily Chart

Small caps are mirroring midcaps, moving in tandem with the same weak price action. Rather than repeating the same analysis, the key takeaway remains: there's no real buyer conviction, and overhead resistance continues to hold.

DAILY FOCUS
It’s Just One Of Those Periods

We know it gets repetitive—waiting, watching, and hearing the same cautionary analysis day after day. It’s frustrating, but this is just one of those periods. The reality is, trading isn’t about making money every single day; it’s about not losing money in a hard-dollar environment so you can strike aggressively when conditions shift.

This game is survival first, opportunity second. Trying to force action in a tough tape is how traders bleed out before the real moves even begin. That’s why we sit tight, stay sharp, and let the setups come to us.

Nick Schmidt, co-founder of TraderLion, recently shared a post that sums this up perfectly. His perspective has been an inspiration to many of us here at Swingly, and it’s a great reminder: capital preservation is the key to longevity. Stay patient. When the market turns, we’ll be ready.

WATCHLIST
Nothing To Declare- Go Enjoy Your Weekend!

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This newsletter does not provide financial advice. It is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade assets or make financial decisions. Please exercise caution and conduct your own research.

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