OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Macro

• Big Tech buoyed sentiment (AAPL, AMZN beat; AWS +20% YoY) while liquidity continues to crowd into mega-cap AI.

• Gold steady above $4K; Fed speakers ahead; December cut still uncertain — liquidity divergence widening.

Nasdaq

• QQQ dip held trend; Amazon earnings driving gap-up — mega-cap strength intact.

• QQQE printed gravestone doji + underperformance — breadth weak inside tech, leaders still pulling all the weight.

Mid-Caps (MDY)

• Rejected at declining EMAs on volume; selling pressure confirmed.

• Eye ~$584 next — midcaps remain weakest bucket.

Small-Caps (IWM)

• Gravestone doji + strong volume; liquidity leaving small caps.

• Sitting on key 4H/1H EMAs but momentum fragile — no naked risk here; only buy pullbacks in mega-caps.

Focused Stock: AMZN

• +14% gap after blowout print (AWS acceleration) — major base breakout.

• Great structure, but avoid chasing gap; best setup = pullback toward $232–$235 / 10-day EMA.

Focused Group: PBW

• Reclaimed weekly 200-EMA w/ real volume expansion — institutional accumulation signal.

• Clean energy turning corner: first credible trend reversal in a year.

MARKET ANALYSIS
The Liquidity Divergence Gets Worse

• Big Tech lifted sentiment after a rocky week — Apple and Amazon both beat earnings expectations. Apple guided for its “best holiday quarter ever,” while Amazon’s cloud division jumped 20% YoY, reigniting optimism for enterprise AI demand.

• Nvidia rebounded nearly 2% after announcing plans to supply 260,000 AI chips to South Korea, while CEO Jensen Huang voiced optimism over the new US-China trade truce easing chip export tensions.

• The broader market is regaining footing after Meta’s 11% plunge yesterday rattled traders over AI spending concerns. Now, focus is shifting back to growth and efficiency, not just capex headlines.

• On the macro side, gold held above $4,000/oz as investors digested the Trump–Xi trade truce — seen as a temporary pause rather than a permanent fix. Meanwhile, Fed officials are set to speak later today, with markets still debating whether December brings another rate cut.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 44.55% | % over 50 EMA: 53.46% | % over 200 EMA: 56.43%

• QQQ pulled back yesterday, but price action remains constructively bullish, holding above short-term EMAs and digesting gains after the recent run.

• The pullback is being quickly offset in premarket thanks to Amazon’s strong earnings, which have triggered a sharp gap-up open across the tech complex.

• No major technical damage was done to the QQQ which is still by far the strongest group, the structure remains intact, and momentum continues to favor large-cap (specifically mega-cap technology) leadership.

QQQE (Equal-Weighted Nasdaq 100)

• QQQE underperformed sharply printing a clear gravestone doji with a candle often associated with buyer exhaustion or short-term reversal risk.

• While the gravestone statistically only signals downside ~51% of the time (Bulkowski), its presence here reflects hesitation beneath the surface of the Nasdaq and with a major narrowing of liquidity taking place it shouldn’t be ignored.

• Until QQQE reclaims last week’s highs, breadth remains a concern even within the Nasdaq itself all as the headline index (QQQ) is likely to continue to advance.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 31.92% | % over 50 EMA: 32.16% | % over 200 EMA: 51.87%

• MDY attempted to reclaim its 10- and 20-day EMAs near $596 yesterday but was immediately rejected, closing at session lows.

• The rejection came on 102% of its 20-day average volume which is not extreme, but enough to validate clear selling pressure.

• The candle structure shows decisive weakness, with momentum rolling over after multiple failed bounces since early October.

• Midcaps remain one of the weakest areas of the market; leadership and participation have evaporated.

• The next likely downside test sits around $584, which aligns with the rising 200 EMA on the 4H chart and the same level that supported the prior bounce on October 10th.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 36.01% | % over 50 EMA: 37.44% | % over 200 EMA: 53.24%

• IWM printed its own weak invert hammer candle/gravestone doji with 117% rel volume taking place and once again just like the MDY showing immense liquidity being sucked out and piped straight into the megacap tech complex.

• The ETF is now sitting directly on the 4H 50 EMA and 1H 200 EMA, the same zone that has repeatedly acted as short-term bounce support since October 10th.

• Despite that, momentum remains fragile; yesterday’s rejection confirmed continued weak demand beneath the surface of the market.

• Small caps have decisively lost leadership, with lower highs forming while large caps continue to carry the indices.

• This is not an environment for new naked exposure, especially outside of large-cap tech. Even within large caps, only pullbacks to the 20-EMA have offered valid long entries and any chases at opening range highs to attempt breakouts have almost all failed.

FOCUSED STOCK
AMZN

ADR%: 3.41% | Off 52-week high: -34% | Above 52-week low: +77.1%

• Amazon is gapping up nearly 14% premarket, breaking out over its multi-month base near $232–$243, driven by stellar earnings and accelerating AI-driven AWS growth.

• AWS reported 20% YoY sales growth to $33B, its fastest expansion in nearly three years, significantly beating analyst expectations and reaffirming Amazon’s position as the global cloud leader.

• Total revenue grew 13% to $180.2B, while net income surged 40% YoY to $21.2B, both well above consensus forecasts.

• Technically, AMZN is pushing cleanly above the Point of Control (~$222) on strong momentum, confirming renewed institutional demand.

• While this is a major structural breakout, traders should be very cautious chasing the gap at the open as the probability of a retracement toward the gap base within the first 15–30 minutes is high.

• The higher-probability setup would be to wait for a pullback entry, ideally around the 10-day EMA or retest of $232–$235, as short-term euphoria could fade before trend continuation.

FOCUSED GROUP
PBW: Why Volume Matters

• PBW has officially reclaimed and held above its weekly 200 EMA, marking the first sustained trend reversal in the clean energy group in over a year.

• Last week’s low relative-volume pullback to $30.60 successfully retested that level before buyers stepped in aggressively, confirming it as new support.

• What’s far more important is the rising weekly volume that’s accompanied this recent expansion major signaling institutional participation and genuine accumulation behind the move.

• Rising volume in tandem with expanding price action is one of the strongest signs that a new intermediate trend is forming, not just a bounce.