OVERVIEW
Markets Want Higher: Don’t Fight It

🟢 Risk-On: Nasdaq at new all-time highs. Mid- and small-caps moving through key volume pockets. Sector leadership is expanding, not contracting.

📈 No Red Flags: Leading stocks (semis, AI, software) showing strong relative strength and follow-through. Rotation is healthy, no material breakdowns in core groups.

🌍 Macro Noise Absorbed: Israel-Iran escalation now fully priced in. Powell’s dovish shift reinforces the soft landing view. Bad news is being bought which is the hallmark of an early bull.

📌 What To Do Now: Leadership is driving this market higher and breadth is improving. Risk-on phases are where you press your edge: use pullbacks to add, stay out of the “fade the rally” mindset.

There is nothing to suggest shorting is warranted here.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Trade What’s In Front Of You

We keep getting hit with negative headlines — oil, geopolitics, macro “risks” — yet the tape keeps absorbing it all. No breakdowns in leadership. No signs of panic under the surface.

Israel-Iran? Resolved for now. Powell? More dovish than expected. The Nasdaq just broke to new highs. The market is telling you what matters — your job as a trader is to listen.

Remember: you’re not an economist. You’re not a geopolitical strategist. You’re a trader — which means your only edge is price and volume. The early phase of this new bull market is playing out exactly as it should.

Strong stocks aren’t breaking down. In fact, they’re pushing higher.

If you’re still trying to fade this strength, or waiting for some perfect fundamental reason to go long, you’re playing the wrong game.

Stay with the leaders. Follow the tape. Keep it simple.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq hit new all-time highs yesterday and is continuing that strength in pre-market — this is hugely significant. As we’ve stressed before, the Nasdaq effectively drives the market: it’s the most closely followed index, packed with retail favorite names, and home to the MAGS — arguably the most important stocks in the entire market.

While we didn’t see a big surge in relative volume, the internal action is what matters: individual leadership stocks continue to show outstanding relative strength and are driving the move. This type of leadership is exactly what you want to see in a bull market phase.

S&P 400 Midcap

MDY showed a notable spike in relative volume yesterday — that’s key, as we approach a very thin volume pocket up to $585. The setup is clear: we’re seeing the long-standing inverse head and shoulders, combined with a larger cup and handle structure, start to play out.

The critical level remains $563.50 — this is the last resistance layer holding back a potential sharp rally. We failed to break through yesterday, but with volume and internals improving, a breakout looks increasingly likely.

Russell 2000

IWM had a strong session yesterday, though notably without a spike in relative volume on the gap up — typically not a perfect signal. But remember, we focus on internals first. Our daily scans show individual stocks breaking out with strong follow-through, and that matters far more: stocks drive indices.

Technically, IWM is now entering a very low-volume pocket on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), stretching from $214 up to around $224. Historically, when price moves into zones like this, it tends to travel quickly — especially when leadership names are participating.

The next 1–2 weeks look constructive for IWM, with the potential for an accelerated push higher through this zone.

🧠 Mindset Check: You Are A Business Owner

Retail trading has a low barrier to entry, which is why so many treat it like a hobby instead of a serious profession. If you want to succeed, you need to approach this as a business. Because that is what it is.

Think about it:

You have opportunity costs. Every dollar you allocate to a trade is capital you are risking and tying up. It needs to be deployed with intent.

You have a core product. For us, it is a repeatable, high risk-reward breakout momentum setup. That is how we generate revenue.

You have a process. You cannot wake up one day and abandon your system because you feel like trying something new. If you own an Italian restaurant, you do not serve sushi on a whim because it is trendy. Similarly, if you are a breakout momentum trader, you do not randomly start trying to scalp futures or fade trends.

You must know your product, refine it, and stick to it. The market will always tempt you to drift into areas where you have no edge. That is the death of most traders.

If you operate like a business owner with clear systems, a defined offering, and risk controls, you give yourself a genuine shot at long-term success. Without this structure, you are gambling, plain and simple.

Questions to ask yourself today:

• Do I know exactly what type of trader I am?

• Do I have a clearly defined setup that produces my edge?

• Am I only taking trades that fit this setup?

• Do I know my risk per trade, per day, and per week?

• Am I tracking my results as a business would track P&L?

If the answer is not “yes” to all five, you are leaving money and opportunity on the table.

Do the work. Build the process. Stick to your product. The consistency will change everything.

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FOCUSED STOCK
ACMR: Huge Stage 1 Base Breaking Out

ACMR might be one of the most overlooked names we’ve tracked — and we’ve been following this for well over 18 months now.

This is exactly the kind of long-duration base that sets up major multi-month or even multi-year trends. ACMR has been building a massive primary base since mid-2020 (nearly 5 years), and 2024 saw a huge ramp in relative volume — a key sign that institutional interest is stepping in.

This week, we are now seeing a pre-market breakout attempt through its long-standing descending resistance line. While there is supply between roughly $26.50–$28.50, which could lead to some short-term chop, the structure here is textbook.

Stage 1 bases breaking into Stage 2 trends (Stan Weinstein’s model) tend to offer the best trend-following opportunities — exactly the type of move we want to participate in.

It’s also worth noting:

• ACMR is levered to the semiconductor space, which remains the strongest leadership group.

• The company’s revenue growth is exceptional — a cherry on top of an already great technical setup.

This remains our #1 stock on watch right now.

FOCUSED GROUP
GBTC: Bitcoin Ready to Push Higher

GBTC, the primary Bitcoin ETF we track, is currently forming a very strong weekly candle. After two weeks of controlled pullbacks into the rising 10-week EMA, we are now seeing a decisive bounce off that level — a key sign that demand is stepping in at trend support.

Bitcoin itself is showing similar behavior: a clean reaction at its own rising 10-week EMA. As we always emphasize, strong ETFs will mirror the strength in the underlying spot market — and GBTC is doing exactly that here.

📌 It’s also important to note: during the two weeks of pullback, GBTC’s relative volume was low.

There was no signs of heavy institutional selling or breakdown momentum. Volume confirms price action, and here the lack of aggressive selling is a clear positive.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: Do you always enter new trades everyday?”

Definitely not, and if you are, you are probably overtrading.

We trade like trend-following momentum operators. That means we want to get big when the trend shifts, and manage risk carefully when the tape goes into digestion.

The last time we added a lot of fresh risk was late April into early May. Why? Because we had dozens of A+ setups appear in the form of double bottoms, cup and handle patterns, and Stage 2 breakouts which all aligned at the same time across multiple groups.

You want to concentrate exposure when the market gives you broad confirmation.

Checklist for adding new risk:

• Are we seeing broad confirmation across multiple groups?

• Is this stock part of the leading sector or theme?

• Is the setup an A+ pattern from your playbook?

• How do my current open positions look? Would adding this trade improve or dilute my risk?

• Are market internals healthy, or are we in chop?

• Are any of my big winners setting up? Can I add exposure to them and protect myself from a potential -1R loss (your opportunity cost).

If you cannot answer yes to most of those, you should probably not be adding size that day.

Most retail traders ruin performance by thinking “activity equals progress.” It does not. You get paid for trend alignment and compounding gains, not by trading more.

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