OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Nasdaq (QQQ)

• QQQ broke decisively under the 10- and 20-day EMAs on 130% relative volume, losing short-term control to sellers.

• $602 (10-week + 50-day EMA) remains the next major magnet; expect whipsaws and fading strength until that zone stabilizes.

S&P 400 Midcap (MDY)

• Double rejection at the $592 POC and stacked declining EMAs confirms continued distribution.

• A developing Adam & Eve double top could trigger a deeper -16% decline if $560 breaks — not confirmed yet, but worth monitoring closely.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

• Breaking below both the 50-day and 10-week EMAs with expanding volume — trend deterioration confirmed.

• Price likely targeting $234 (20-week EMA) with minimal support between $240–$234, favoring continuation lower.

Focused Stock: QBTS

• Rolling over post-earnings despite strong results; supply absorption visible on volume.

• Potential continuation setup into $24.50 (20-week EMA), representing a -13% downside target aligned with ADR volatility.

Focused Group: RSPH (Healthcare)

• Equal-weight healthcare continues to lead, bouncing cleanly off the rising 10-week and daily 50-EMA.

• Accumulation visible across leaders (LLY, MDGL), confirming sustained institutional sponsorship amid broad market weakness.

MARKET ANALYSIS
From Bad To Ugly

• Tech unwind continues: Mega-cap AI names are leading this week’s correction as Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir, and Broadcom are all down 5–12%. It’s less about earnings and more about stress after an overextended Q3 melt-up with the entire market looking ready for a deeper correction.

• Macro data vacuum: The record U.S. government shutdown has now frozen key data releases, including nonfarm payrolls. With no new inputs, traders are operating on technicals and positioning, which often heightens volatility.

• Labor market signal: October job cuts hit their highest level in over two decades, confirming that labor tightness is unwinding. That, paradoxically, increases odds of a December rate cut, keeping downside limited for risk assets near-term.

• Policy risk still active: Markets are eyeing progress on funding votes and any clarity around Trump’s tariff plans, but these are narrative events and as always the price action remains the only truth.

• Crypto confirmation: Bitcoin slipped below $100K again, off 20% from its October highs. That’s consistent with risk unwinding across speculative beta, rather than crypto-specific stress (though crypto as a whole is weakening).

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 32.35% | % over 50 EMA: 46.07% | % over 200 EMA: 51.96%

• Technical breakdown: QQQ decisively broke below both its 10- and 20-day EMAs on 130% of 20-day relative volume at the highest participation since Aug 20, 2025, marking a clear shift in short-term trend character.

• Demand zone test: Yesterday’s session tagged the $612 demand box (previous breakout shelf + dense VRVP zone) where we anticipated some slowing and although buyers did step in intraday allowing the QQQ to close there, premarket has already taken that level out.

• Next support cluster: The rising 10-week EMA (~$602) aligns with the 50-day EMA, forming the next probable magnet for price. That’s roughly a -1.5% move below Thursday’s close and represents the next structural test for the uptrend.

• Weekly context: The current weekly candle is wide-bodied and closing near lows, signaling a loss of momentum and rejection of last week’s breakout. We must stress this so far is a controlled retest phase, not yet an intermediary trend breakdown as we are over the 10 and 20 week EMAs.

• Playbook: Expect whipsaw action (especially with a rising VIX as the index moves toward $602; maintain defensive posture until absorption or reversal signals appear around the 10-week EMA. Any early long attempts here are counter-trend and low-probability (unless they are intraday/ momentum burst style plays; trend following longs on attempts to time a bottom here will be very difficult).

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 35.16% | % over 50 EMA: 33.16% | % over 200 EMA: 48.87%

• Repeated rejection: MDY rejected the daily Point of Control (POC) at $592 for the second time in a row, aligning with the declining 10-, 20-, and now 50-day EMAs which are all stacked bearishly and flattening.

• Weekly confluence: The 10-week EMA, also sitting right at $592, was rejected simultaneously thus forming a multi-timeframe ceiling of resistance.

• Volume confirmation: Yesterday’s decline came on 195% of 20-day average volume, the highest in three weeks and so is confirming active distribution is still taking place.

• Pattern risk: The weekly chart is shaping into a potential Adam & Eve double top (Nov ’24–Jan ’25 and Sept–Oct ’25 peaks). According to Bulkowski’s research on this pattern on >1000 simulations:

  • Break-even failure rate: 21%

  • Average decline: ~16%

  • Pullback rate: 64%

  • Confirmation requires a close below the mid-valley floor (~$560), which would validate the breakdown.

  • This pattern is not validated as it currently stands but we want to be transparent in the potential structure we see forming.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 36.06% | % over 50 EMA: 34.93% | % over 200 EMA: 51.99%

• Technical breakdown: IWM is breaking below both its 50-day EMA ($240) and 10-week EMA, a dual timeframe violation that confirms short-term trend deterioration.

• Volume confirmation: Relative volume has risen for four consecutive sessions, confirming broad-based risk-off rotation within the small-cap space.

• Rejection pivot: Price was rejected sharply at $246 earlier this week, and has since accelerated lower with rising downside momentum.

• Key level: The rising 20-week EMA (~$234) now represents the next structural support which roughly -2.7% below Thursday’s close and the most logical target for this current leg down.

• Volume profile: The visible range volume profile (VRVP) thins out notably between $240 and $234, implying limited demand support in that zone and so is favoring continuation.

• Interpretation: Unless IWM recovers back above $240 intraday, the probability favors continued downside toward $234. We would favor short exposure within small-cap segments, as this group now leads the downside rotation in relative weakness terms across all U.S. equity tiers.

FOCUSED STOCK
QBTS: Quantum Looks Weak Short Term

ADR%: 13.16% | Off 52-week high: -39.3% | Above 52-week low: +2811.8%

• Post-earnings setup: Despite delivering strong earnings, QBTS failed to attract sustained demand, showing clear supply absorption at higher levels, signaling potential exhaustion of its recent uptrend.

• Technical structure: The stock is rolling over post-earnings and looks positioned for a continuation move lower into its rising 20-week EMA (~$24.50) which is the logical area for re-test given this level has anchored every intermediate-term rally since Nov 2024.

• Downside target: From current levels, that represents a -13.5% decline, which aligns almost perfectly with the stock’s ADR% of 13.17%, implying this move could occur in one or two sessions under continued pressure.

• Ideal short entry: The intraday rejection at $32 on Nov 4 was the optimal short entry, though entry was invalid given earnings proximity. The current setup remains valid for momentum traders targeting a clean move into the $24–$25 zone.

• Sector confirmation: The Quantum Computing / AI infrastructure group continues to weaken and ORCL, which we flagged last week for a gap-fill short to $240, has now fully completed that move, validating sector-level weakness and reinforcing our confidence in the QBTS short thesis.

FOCUSED GROUP
RSPH: Healthcare Leading Once Again

• Healthcare is King: Today we spotlight RSPH (Equal-Weight Healthcare ETF) after featuring XLV yesterday and this is highlighting how this strength is not just concentrated in mega caps but broad-based across the sector.

• Leadership names: Stocks such as LLY and MDGL continue to show powerful accumulation, both pressing into new highs while the rest of the market unwinds.

• Technical structure: RSPH has staged a strong bounce off its rising 10-week EMA, perfectly aligning with the daily 50-EMA with a great sign of structural support being respected within an ongoing uptrend, and we are seeing dips still being bought up on intraday lows.

⚠️ Stay Safe Out There

It’s a very difficult tape right now so please don’t ever feel the need to force trades.

Protect your hard-earned capital and wait for setups that truly align with your system.

Patience and preservation always come before profits. Think before you click!