MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s What You Need To Know

• U.S. futures are modestly lower this morning following a stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP print, which showed the economy growing at a 4.3% annualized pace, well ahead of expectations. The data reinforces the idea that the U.S. economy remains resilient, particularly on the consumer side, even late in the cycle.

• The immediate market reaction has been restrained. Rather than triggering any risk-off response, the GDP surprise has simply led to some trimming of near-term rate-cut expectations, with markets now leaning more heavily toward a Fed pause in January. Importantly, this has been a repricing at the margins, not a disorderly shift in expectations.

• Equities are coming off several strong sessions, with the S&P 500 sitting just below record highs after last week’s combination of softer inflation data and a cooling labor picture. Against that backdrop, a mild pullback in futures looks more like digestion than deterioration.

• One theme that continues to quietly assert itself is the divergence beneath the surface of the economy. The GDP data once again highlighted a K-shaped dynamic, where higher-income consumers remain resilient while pressure builds at the lower end. For markets, this reinforces the importance of stock selection over index-level calls.

• Precious metals continue to reflect longer-term macro undercurrents rather than short-term risk sentiment. Gold and silver are extending what is shaping up to be their strongest year in decades, a move that speaks more to currency, fiscal, and confidence dynamics than immediate equity stress.

• With the market moving into a holiday-shortened week, liquidity will thin quickly. Early closes and limited participation increase the likelihood of choppier price action and false moves, particularly around well-known technical levels.

• That being said, pullbacks in the growth names continues to be rewarded and we believe today is a good opportunity to gauge whether yesterday’s strength can be followed through with a dip into lows happening as we speak.

Nasdaq

53.46%: over 20 EMA | 44.55%: over 50 EMA | 51.48%: over 200 EMA

• QQQ pushed higher yesterday but ran directly into overhead supply at ~622, the same zone we marked as resistance last week.

• That rejection matters, but it doesn’t invalidate the broader rebound — this market has consistently rewarded pullbacks, not breakout chasing.

• This morning’s dip looks like a retest of yesterday’s highs near 616, not a structural failure.

• A pullback into prior highs is acceptable as long as we hold and close above 616.

• Failure to reclaim and hold that level would likely extend the correction and open a move back toward 612, the mapped demand zone and EMA cluster.

• There is a low-volume pocket between ~617 and 613, which explains why moves through this zone can be fast and emotionally noisy.

• Bigger picture: structure remains constructive.

  • Higher lows remain intact.

  • Weekly trend is still supported.

  • This continues to look like digestion, not distribution.

• Key takeaway: ignore the open, focus on the close — that’s where the signal will be.

S&P 400 Midcap

74.50%: over 20 EMA | 54.00%: over 50 EMA | 57.00%: over 200 EMA

• MDY also had a strong push yesterday (113% relative volume), but once again failed at range highs.

• This continues to reinforce the same playbook we’ve seen for weeks:

  • Breakout highs get sold.

  • Pullbacks into moving averages get bought.

• The 608 area is now clearly demand:

  • Prior resistance.

  • Daily point of control.

  • Successfully held after a multi-day consolidation.

• There is heavy trapped long exposure above ~618, visible on the volume profile:

  • Large green volume overhead.

  • Sellers are using rallies to exit.

• Today’s pullback is not a red flag unless we lose 608 on a closing basis.

• As long as MDY holds above demand, the character remains bullish.

• Again: entry quality matters more than direction in this environment.

Russell 2000

69.05%: over 20 EMA | 54.11%: over 50 EMA | 58.54%: over 200 EMA

• IWM continues to lag relative to QQQ and MDY.

• Price once again failed to clear ~253, keeping that zone firmly classified as supply.

• Yesterday’s move faded more than 50%, suggesting buyers are still hesitant at highs.

• A gap fill toward ~250 would be normal within this structure.

• Weekly context remains constructive:

  • Demand stepped in aggressively last week.

  • High-volume reversal near the rising 10-week MA.

• Importantly, strength inside small caps is stock-specific, not index-wide.

• The index itself is noisy — leadership needs to be identified beneath the surface.

• Expect continued rotation rather than broad small-cap momentum.

FOCUSED STOCK
RGTI: Quantum Is Coiling

ADR%: 8.15% | Off 52-week high: -55.4% | Above 52-week low: +334.5%

• The quantum computing complex continues to stand out as the highest-beta leadership pocket in the market right now.

• Yesterday’s move was broad-based, not isolated:

  • Most names in the group posted strong gains.

  • Relative volume expanded meaningfully across the board.

• RGTI remains one of the clear leaders:

  • Relative strength vs. S&P 500 sits at 98, placing it among the strongest stocks in the market.

  • Price is holding a double-bottom structure off the rising 200-day MA (~21.80).

• This strength is showing up exactly where you’d expect in a risk-on tape:

  • Highly speculative.

  • High volatility.

  • Long-duration growth themes.

• Structurally, RGTI is still in an intermediate contraction phase.

  • Yesterday’s rejection near the 10-week MA (~27.87) reinforces a familiar lesson:

    • Breakout highs are low-quality entries.

    • Pullbacks into major moving averages are where asymmetry shows up.

• The highest-quality entry already occurred:

  • Pullbacks into the long-term MA cluster around 22, directly off the 200-day.

• This isn’t just an RGTI story.

  • Other names worth tracking closely:

    • QBTS (group leader)

    • QUBT

    • IONQ

• More broadly, we’re seeing leadership concentrate in front-end risk themes:

  • Quantum computing.

  • Adjacent speculative growth areas, including modular nuclear / next-gen energy.