OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Nasdaq (QQQ)

• QQQ defended the $614 high-volume node with conviction and pushed straight back into $620–$624 supply.

• The 10-EMA has crossed above the 20-EMA, confirming trend re-acceleration; rising 10/20-day EMAs at $610 now act as the key support zone.

S&P 400 Midcap (MDY)

• Midcaps finally paused at the well-known $604–$608 supply shelf after last week’s extension.

• The pullback held the $600 demand cluster perfectly; the weekly morning-star reversal remains fully intact.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

• After a +$20 vertical run, IWM released pressure but defended the critical $244 point of control immediately.

• For the first time since October, all short-term EMAs are rising in alignment, signalling a new advancing cycle forming.

Focused Stock: PLTR

• PLTR continues to tighten directly under supply after a powerful rebound from its weekly POC on a level defended three weeks straight.

• Structure is improving, but it still needs more contraction before a high-probability breakout triggers.

Focused Group: XLK

• XLK defended the 20-week EMA with authority and is now coiling just below its multi-week downtrend line.

• Sector is behaving exactly like a completed correction- tightening under resistance with leaders beginning to fire; a breakout above $289–$290 would confirm trend resumption.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Strip Away The Noise: Conditions Improving

• Futures stabilise after Monday’s shakeout: U.S. equity futures are modestly green this morning (Dow +0.2%, S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%) as traders attempt to reset after a weak start to December that broke last week’s five-day win streak. The bid is being led by tech and crypto-adjacent names.

• Bitcoin rebounds +2% after yesterday’s worst day since March: Yesterday’s -6% washout in BTC triggered broad risk-off flows that hit AI, crypto equities, and beta-heavy pockets of the market. The overnight stabilisation is helping sentiment, but volatility in digital assets remains a key short-term swing factor for risk appetite.

• Tech rotation attempts to reassert itself: Oracle, Broadcom, and Nvidia are all trading higher pre-market after reversing Monday’s losses. Despite recent AI-related drawdowns, we want warn this is not the moment to abandon the theme as persistent FOMO flows, accelerating hyperscaler spend, and extreme concentration risk continue to define the leadership profile into year-end.

• Fed expectations locked in: Markets now price an 87.6% probability of a rate cut at the Dec 10 FOMC meeting which sharply higher than mid-November. This remains the core macro tailwind into December: easier policy, improving breadth, strong seasonality, and still-bearish sentiment underpinning flows.

• Macro overhangs remain:
  Inflation stickiness, elevated valuations in megacap tech, and ongoing concerns around the “sustainability” of AI infrastructure spend continue to cap upside impulse. You will see today at the big tech complex is a lot stronger than that mainstream financial news is stating.

• Other global catalysts: Apple’s AI chief departure highlights the company’s lag vs peers; Costco’s tariff lawsuit adds a fresh layer of political/economic uncertainty; and Shopify’s Cyber Monday outage weighed heavily on e-commerce shares.

Nasdaq

54.45%: over 20 EMA | 43.56%: over 50 EMA | 52.47%: over 200 EMA

• A stronger session than it appeared on the surface: QQQ opened directly on top of a major demand shelf on the VRVP at the high-volume node around $614 and immediately held that area with conviction. That bid acted as a springboard that allowed QQQ to push straight back into the $620–$624 supply zone we’ve been tracking since the late-October peak.

• Key trend confirmation arrived yesterday: The 10-day EMA has now crossed back above the 20-day EMA, signalling a re-acceleration phase after weeks of corrective action. This aligns with what we’re seeing across the tech complex: a growing number of names are tightening, reclaiming EMAs, or already pushing (APP being a clear example we flagged last week).

• Short-term expectations: From here, some additional inside-action would be completely normal after the five-day surge. What matters is that the rising 10/20-day EMA cluster around $610 now provides the first meaningful layer of dynamic support. Based on volume profile, trend structure, and momentum leadership, a break below that zone is not the base case.

• Higher-timeframe takeaway: Everything in the structure e.g. the EMA reclaim, the behaviour at demand, breadth stabilisation inside the Nasdaq 100, and rotation within leadership, points to the idea that the worst of this corrective phase is likely behind us. The market is transitioning from “repair” back toward “expansion,” and QQQ’s behaviour supports that narrative.

S&P 400 Midcap

75.25%: over 20 EMA | 53.50%: over 50 EMA | 58.25%: over 200 EMA

• Midcaps finally took a breather yesterday, rejecting cleanly off the same supply zone that has capped the index since early September at roughly $604–$608, which remains a dense overhead shelf on the volume profile.

• The rejection itself is not problematic; midcaps were the most short-term extended cohort in the entire market last week and were due to release some pressure.

• What does matter is that MDY pulled back directly into the heaviest demand node on the VRVP at ~$600 and held it on first touch. That level aligns with psychological round-number support, and the reaction confirms there is still real sponsorship underneath.

• When you compare breadth across indices, midcaps and small caps were far more stretched than Nasdaq components in the prior five sessions, so this pause is structurally healthy rather than concerning.

• MDY continues to defend the weekly morning-star reversal we highlighted last week. That pattern remains firmly intact, and unless MDY loses the $600 shelf with authority, the base case is still consolidation under supply followed by another attempt higher.

Russell 2000

65.43%: over 20 EMA | 52.65%: over 50 EMA | 57.59%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps were the most stretched index in the entire market last week, rallying from $230 → $250 in a single week which is a move far beyond IWM’s average weekly range. A short-term pause was inevitable, and we’re simply seeing that excess unwind.

• Just like midcaps, IWM saw the sharpest selling pressure yesterday, but the context matters: price is still firmly above the key $244 point of control on both the daily and weekly volume profiles. That’s the most important level for sustained trend structure, and it held on first test.

• Even in pre-market today, IWM is already showing buyers stepping back in. A retest of $244 wouldn’t surprise us given last week’s extension, but the reaction so far is exactly what you want to see after such a parabolic leg.

• The structural improvement is clear as for the first time since the October selloff, all the short-term EMAs are fully aligned and rising- the 10-EMA > 20-EMA > 50-EMA.

• That shift in slope and ordering is typically what marks the end of a corrective phase and the beginning of a new advancing cycle.

• Small caps finally have momentum, breadth, and trend structure all pointing in the right direction. As long as $244 continues to act as demand, pullbacks are opportunities.

FOCUSED STOCK
PLTR: Watching Closely For Contraction

ADR%: 5.49% | Off 52-week high: -19.3% | Above 52-week low: +164.2%

• Palantir was one of the standout names last week, delivering a strong rebound directly off its weekly point of control (POC) on the heaviest area of volume since July.

• That level has now been defended for three consecutive weeks, which is exactly what you want to see from a former leader attempting to reset its trend.

• Price has begun to drift higher and tighten underneath a well-defined supply shelf and just below the 10–20 week EMA cluster. This is classic early-stage constructive behaviour: prior momentum name, deep pullback into major volume support, followed by multi-week absorption.

• The importance of this weekly POC cannot be overstated as this level has acted as a launchpad multiple times since mid-summer, producing strong upside reversals each time buyers defended it.

• The stock still needs more tightness and contraction before a high-probability breakout emerges, but structurally the ingredients are present:
  former leader → major support respected → EMAs starting to flatten → supply zone overhead tightening.

• Because PLTR is a prior cycle leader, it will continue to sit high on our radar. These are precisely the names that tend to move first when the next leg of a trend resumes.

FOCUSED GROUP
XLK: Growth Is About To Breakout

• XLK posted a decisive defence of the rising 20-week EMA last week. The intraday flush looked like classic capitulation into a key long-term trend level, but buyers stepped in aggressively and the sector closed firmly off the lows.

• This is important as XLK has not meaningfully violated this moving average since the October correction began.

• That defence has now put the sector back inside a multi-week contraction, sitting directly below the downside resistance line that has capped every rally since mid-October.

• The reaction off the 20-week EMA shows demand is present, but XLK still needs to resolve this compression.

• On the daily chart, price is tightening just underneath the declining 10–20 EMAs and right on top of a heavy VRVP demand shelf near $284–$286, which held cleanly yesterday. This zone has acted as the high-volume pivot for the entire November–December range.

• Structurally, tech is now behaving exactly as you would expect after a 6–8 week corrective phase: big flush → trend EMA defended → multi-day tightening below resistance → leaders inside the group beginning to tighten and push.

• If XLK can break above the $289–$290 downtrend line, it would confirm the sector has completed its corrective phase.

• Until then, the base is constructive, and the worst appears to be behind it, but we should expect a bit more compression before resolution.