OVERVIEW
Market Absorbs Fear, Risk Turns Back On

🟩 Risk-On:
After digesting recent fears around rate hikes and geopolitical risks, the market is shifting into "risk-on" mode. We’re seeing the first signs of bullish behavior as fear has been priced in, allowing growth stocks and small caps to make their move.

🕰️ Key Movers:
The broader market is responding well to the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, with big tech and small-cap stocks taking the lead.

💡 The Trend:
Expect a continuation of the current rally unless significant macro factors emerge. Be ready for aggressive momentum trades as volatility compresses and risk on sentiment begins to take center stage.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Green Skies Ahead For US Equities

The Fed held rates steady yesterday — as expected — and Powell delivered a neutral tone: no surprises, no panic, no pivot. Markets took it in stride. After a muted session, risk is responding constructively this morning, with key growth names and beta sectors ticking higher premarket.

Now add fuel to that: President Trump just announced a U.S.–U.K. trade deal, with a 10 a.m. ET press conference scheduled. This adds another tailwind to an already firming macro backdrop.

The takeaway? The market has likely priced in all the near-term downside. With volatility cooling, breadth stabilizing, and macro risk getting absorbed, we’re seeing the green light for continued expansion- this is not the panicked market we saw in the prior months.

Watch for confirmation through:

• Strong closes above key pivots

• Sector rotation into all growth segments e.g. cyclicals and tech

• Intraday Range breakouts on key daily or weekly levels

This is what early-stage risk-on legs look like: low drama, strong reactions, clean setups. Now it’s all about the execution.

Nasdaq

• All eyes are on the $490 level — the QQQ is attempting a key breakout in premarket. If that level holds, we’re looking at a potential surge into the low-volume pocket between $493–$512. That’s a clean +3.57% window with minimal structural resistance.

Why this breakout matters:

• QQQ is the proxy for big tech and growth. If it rips, everything else takes notice.

• The mega-cap giants — the MAGS — are heavily shorted and beaten down. A breakout here could trigger short covering and institutional chasing.

• QQQ often leads broader risk sentiment. If it runs, the rally broadens — small caps, midcaps, and cyclicals all benefit.

Price is signaling potential intent. If the breakout holds above $490, this may be the ignition point for a multi-week expansion. It’s very important to watch the relative volume today to protect you from a false breakout.

Remember: Price confirms direction. Volume confirms conviction.

S&P 400 Midcap

• Midcaps (MDY) are quietly breaking out after holding their point of control on Tuesday. That level saw a small spike in relative volume — a subtle sign of support absorption — and we’re now seeing premarket strength pushing above the highs of the past four-day contraction.

• The next key test? The overhead daily 200-EMA — roughly +2.6% from here. But here’s the edge: the visible volume profile above that level thins out quickly. If MDY can clear it, there’s little structural resistance, which significantly raises the probability of a sustained leg higher.

What to watch:

• Breakout continuation above yesterday’s high = momentum confirmation

• 200-EMA test could act as temporary resistance — or the launchpad

• A clean close above that level flips midcaps into a leadership role

Midcaps aren’t always flashy — but when they trend, they trend clean.

Russell 2000

• The Russell 2000 (IWM) is pressing right against its descending range from late February — with $201 marking both the point of control and key trendline resistance. This is a major battleground.

• Volume has been steadily declining for weeks, classic behavior before a breakout. If IWM clears this level with force, we’re likely to see an explosive move in small-cap momentum — the kind that can trigger 20–50% rallies in high-beta names within a matter of days.

• Small caps are also the most sensitive to shifts in the macro picture and investor risk appetite. When they lead, it often signals institutional conviction behind bullish positioning for equities as a whole.

🧠 Mindset Check: There’s a Time for Patience, and a Time to Strike

Yesterday was the test — and the market passed.

The Fed didn’t spook risk assets. No panic, no breakdown — just orderly digestion and rotation into strength. That tells you all you need to know: institutions are not selling. In fact, premarket action is showing constructive follow-through across leadership names.

This is not the time to hesitate.

When markets absorb macro risk and immediately rotate into strength, that’s your edge. You’re paid to act when price confirms resilience. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing now.

Don’t overthink it:

• Breakouts are holding.

• Volume is supporting.

• Leadership is expanding.

In this phase, patience becomes inertia. The opportunity isn’t in waiting — it’s in executing clean setups with clear risk. These are the moments where confidence is built and accounts move.

Let others second-guess every news headline. You focus on the message from price.

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FOCUSED STOCK
NVDA: NVIDIA Corporation

• NVDA is breaking out above its Point of Control (POC) at $118 in premarket — a key level that also aligns with its declining 200-day EMA, which has capped price for weeks.

• This move comes after a multi-month sideways base with a clear pattern of higher lows forming over the last several weeks — a classic buildup of pressure.

• A strong reaction through $118 could mark a pivotal shift pushing NVDA into a brand new uptrend. If this level holds intraday, it sets up a very low-risk entry with defined structure beneath.

FOCUSED GROUP
QTUM: Quantum Computing

• QTUM has quietly emerged as one of the strongest-performing segments in the market, ripping higher with a sharp V-shaped reversal through April.

• Now, price is consolidating just beneath overhead supply — the same zone that caused the March chop. But this time, the tone feels different.

• We’re seeing a tight volatility contraction (mini-VCP) form over the past week, and this morning’s premarket action shows a breakout attempt above that range.

💥 Key takeaway: QTUM is one of the most volatile growth ETFs — when it moves, it moves fast. If this VCP breakout holds, it could lead to a high-momentum leg. Keep it on radar for continuation above premarket highs.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you know which breakout will work, and which will fail?”

The truth is, we don’t know. Even with a 40% win rate, the market will throw losses your way — sometimes consecutively. For instance, if you're risking 0.5% per trade, you could lose 5% after 10 trades. But here's the game-changer: the 11th trade can be the one that makes it all back — and more.

This is where trend-following becomes essential. With each loss, you're not just losing money — you're getting closer to that next high-probability move. The market doesn’t move in a straight line, and that 11th trade could be the 100%+ winner you’ve been waiting for. This is the power of riding the trend (assuming you are pressing your size in an uptrending market, and not swimming against the current).

We focus on breakouts above intraday range highs, confirmed with relative volume. When the breakout finally comes, and it's accompanied by strong volume, it's often the start of a larger, more powerful move. That's when you press the advantage and ride it with conviction, because this trade — backed by solid price action and volume — will deliver the outsized returns that make up for the previous losses.

Remember: It’s not about being right every time, but about managing risk and staying prepared for that moment when the market rewards you with a big winner.

It’s like playing the lottery, knowing that eventually you’re guaranteed a winning ticket — it’s just a matter of getting through the losses until that winning ticket hits. Your job is to survive until then.

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