OVERVIEW
Momentum Doesn’t Lie

🟢 Risk-On: Equities continue to grind higher with strong participation across small, mid, and large caps. Key breakout levels are being reclaimed — and held — on rising volume.

📊 Leadership Broadening: IWM broke out of its 6-month downtrend. MDY is pushing toward its own resistance. QQQ holds the high ground with a shallow handle. Momentum is rotating into more risk-on sectors like industrials, semis, and utilities — this is a bullish sign.

🚨 Volume is the Tell: It’s not about the headlines or macro noise. It’s about price and volume — and both are confirming strength. Ignore the newsfeed and stay focused on the tape.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Choppy Headlines, Smooth Tape: That’s Bullish

Markets powered higher Tuesday, with the S&P 500 extending gains on the back of strength in AI leaders like NVDA — even as macro headlines flooded the tape.

📰 The Headlines:

• A JOLTS report showed a surprise rise in job openings and hiring rates in April — signaling labor market strength even as tariffs ramp up.

• OECD downgraded its global growth outlook, citing U.S. trade policy as a headwind.

• The Street is watching a potential Trump–Xi Jinping call this week, with hopes it’ll ease U.S.–China tensions.

📉 The Reaction:
The equity market essentially shrugged. All of the above would traditionally spark fear — slower growth, trade war tension, and macro headwinds. But instead, risk assets rallied, led by exactly the sectors most vulnerable to this narrative: high-growth tech, AI, and semiconductors.

📌 Why It Matters:
From a momentum perspective, this is exactly what you want to see. Price action is always the final arbiter — and right now, the tape is telling us that investors are looking through the noise and buying strength.

📅 What’s Next:
The May Jobs Report lands Friday — and with labor data still solid, that could act as the next short-term catalyst. But unless we see genuine risk aversion hit price and volume, all this macro chatter remains just that: chatter.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq pushed above its Point of Control (POC) on Monday and continued drifting higher into Tuesday — a technically clean move, but one that lacked conviction from a volume standpoint.

📉 Volume Lag: While the breakout held, the absence of strong relative volume on yesterday’s push to the top of the cup-and-handle range is a yellow flag. We’d prefer to see buyers step in more aggressively here to validate the move.

⚠️ Why This Matters: Without participation, we risk a failed breakout or another pullback. That said, zooming out, the overall trend still shows rising relative volume throughout this base-building process — a good sign that participation has been increasing over time.

🔍 What’s Next: Watch closely for a volume spike this week. It would confirm that the handle is resolving and fuel the next leg higher. We’ll dive deeper into this in the Focused Sector section shortly.

S&P 400 Midcap

Midcaps are quietly setting up for a major test. After weeks of sideways consolidation, we’re now seeing a sharp surge in relative volume as MDY approaches the declining resistance trendline — the key breakout level that’s capped progress since early May.

💡 Why It Matters: High relative volume into resistance is a clear sign buyers are getting aggressive. While there’s still a dense band of overhead supply to work through — it won’t be easy — the current structure is constructive and shows real intent.

📌 What We’re Watching: A breakout above $566 with sustained volume would be significant and open up the next leg higher. Until then, we remain cautiously bullish: the pressure is building, and so far, demand continues to step up.

Russell 2000

The small caps have officially broken above their dense supply zone and, more importantly, cleared the long-standing descending resistance that’s rejected IWM for over six months.

This is a significant structural breakout — and it didn’t happen quietly. The move came on surging relative volume, which has risen consistently as the rally progressed. That kind of linear volume acceleration is exactly what fuels real expansion.

📈 Why It Matters: There’s now a clear low-volume gap above on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), meaning if IWM sees continued follow-through, there’s very little overhead supply to slow it down — a path is open toward the $220 zone.

🧠 Structure Check: This breakout is happening within the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern we’ve been tracking for weeks. That adds conviction to the move. A potential retest of the breakout zone — turning prior resistance into support — would further confirm this shift.

⏳ Watch for: Continuation is key. A push above $211 with volume would be a strong sign as we need to clear the declining 200 day EMA. But even a controlled retest of the breakout zone would be healthy — as long as demand defends that level. Momentum is with the bulls for now.

🧠 Mindset Check: The Cycle Of The Hesitant Trader

This is a brutal loop we see over and over — especially among traders who don’t fully trust their system:

1. They wait. The market starts to shift — leadership shows up, setups tighten — but it's early. It feels too soon, so they hesitate.

2. They chase. Once price action gets explosive and conviction becomes obvious, they finally enter — often late, into exhaustion risk.

3. They get chopped. Stops hit, confidence drops, and execution becomes reactive.

4. They freeze. As clean setups reappear, they undertrade, second-guessing every move.

5. They flip. Just as the environment deteriorates again, they go all-in — too late.

What’s missing here? A feedback loop.

When you’re system-driven, you don’t wait for the market to “feel right.” You act based on data: setups, relative strength, volume patterns — and most critically, your own win rate. Ours is dynamic. When it starts pushing above baseline, that’s our green light. It tells us: conditions are strong, edge is active — time to scale.

We’re not guessing. We’re not chasing. We’re reading the internal signals of our own system to know when to lean in and when to throttle back. That’s the difference between reactive traders and professional traders.

FOCUSED STOCK
GRRR: Gorilla Technology Group

🧱 Base Building:
GRRR is coiling tightly right into its Point of Control (POC) after spending the last two months building a clean, well-defined base. Price action has compressed meaningfully, forming higher lows against a flat top — classic signs of a volatility contraction.

📉 Low Supply Above:
One of the key elements here is the visible range volume profile (VRVP), which shows a very thin pocket of volume overhead. If GRRR can break through the top of this base, there’s little resistance to slow a sharp move higher.

⚠️ Don’t Anticipate — React:
Momentum trading is not about predicting breakouts. We act when the character shifts — such as a surge through multi-month resistance on volume, or a clean reclaim of prior resistance as new support. GRRR is one to keep on radar for exactly that kind of behavior.

FOCUSED SECTOR
XLK: Technology

The tech sector as a whole continues to lead, but it’s important to distinguish between different ways we track it:

• QQQ = cap-weighted Nasdaq 100 (mega/large-cap tech)

• QQQE = equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (more balanced across names)

• XLK = cap-weighted S&P tech sector

• RSPT = equal-weighted S&P tech sector

Together, these give a full picture of how strength is distributed across the group — and right now, all signals remain bullish.

📈 Breakout in Play:
XLK just broke out above its Point of Control (POC) with very strong relative volume. That matters. We’ve been tracking a clear cup-and-handle pattern in this group — and yesterday’s move confirms that pattern is resolving higher.

🔊 Volume Confirms Strength:
What’s especially bullish is the steady increase in relative volume throughout this rally. Volume is rising as price rises — classic confirmation of strong demand.

🔑 Key Takeaway:
Momentum in tech is real — and broad-based (notice how QQQ, QQQE, XLK & RSPT all look very similar). If you're looking for leadership in this market, this is the group to focus on. Just make sure you're looking at individual names showing relative strength and clean consolidation — they’ll move first.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “What indicators do you use?”

A: Great question — but we’ll keep it simple: we only really care about two things — price and volume. Every single indicator you’ve ever seen is derived from these two variables (plus time). So instead of relying on lagging overlays, we focus directly on the source.

📈 Price = direction.
🔊 Volume = conviction.

Volume tells you how much fuel is behind a move. Price tells you the direction of that move. The combination is where the real edge lies — not in trying to predict, but in reacting once that price + volume confirmation shows up.

That’s why we primarily use:

• The 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs → to define short- and intermediate-term trend, and to guide position management (e.g. trailing stops or support breaks).

• Volume patterns → to confirm strength, exhaustion, or accumulation.

• Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) → to identify key zones of supply/demand. When price enters a low-volume pocket or reclaims a Point of Control (POC), it gives us a tactical edge — knowing whether we’re entering resistance or breakout airspace.

Bottom line: you don’t need 12 indicators. Price, volume, and a few EMAs — that’s our entire playbook. And we show you how to apply it every day inside Swingly PRO.