OVERVIEW
March Jobs Report: Strong Hiring Signals, but Tariff Pressures Could Weigh on Growth📈 

The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March — significantly beating expectations of 140,000 — and reinforcing the labor market’s resilience despite growing economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% from 4.1%, and wages rose by 0.3% month-over-month, in line with forecasts.

While job figures for January and February were revised downward, the overall three-month trend remains healthy. March job gains were led by healthcare, transportation, hospitality, and retail — with the latter rebounding as workers returned from strikes. Government employment also rose slightly, though federal job numbers continued to shrink due to ongoing cost-cutting measures.

This solid jobs data supports the view that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates steady for now. However, new tariff announcements from President Trump — including baseline 10% duties set to begin April 5 and potential 50% “reciprocal” tariffs shortly after — could weigh on consumer spending and hiring if fully implemented.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on how the labor market reacts to these trade policy shifts. As businesses adapt to rising costs and global uncertainty, the strength of job growth will be a key indicator of the economy’s ability to weather the storm.

MARKET
We’re Not Out Of The Woods, Yet

The market is currently in a state of turmoil, with volatility reaching historic highs and equities experiencing intraday moves over 400% larger than what we would typically see. This level of price action suggests one clear reality: market participants are uncertain and scrambling to position themselves effectively. We’re witnessing a period of intense instability, with some of the largest market cap names—Apple, for example—experiencing a shocking -21% breakdown in just the past few sessions alone.

What’s particularly concerning—and yet fascinating—is how sensitive the market has become to news cycles. Just yesterday, an article claiming that President Donald Trump had decided to pause tariffs for 90 days led to an immediate $2.4 billion inflow into equities. However, only 15 minutes later, this same article was retracted and labeled as "fake," causing that $2.4 billion to evaporate just as quickly. This highlights just how easily market sentiment can be swayed by short-term news, making it more difficult than ever to generate consistent alpha.

This is a very important point to remember, as a lot of traders right now are jumping at the opportunity every time there's any push higher or shorting every time we break lower. This is not a period for trend trading whatsoever, as we lack consistency both in the news cycle and the actual trend in the markets. Until we see volatility subside, holding cash is by far the best position

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq may have reached a capitulation event yesterday, with the highest relative volume recorded YTD as we saw an intraday move greater than 4x the average daily range (ADR%) in less than 2 hours of trading. We do have an unfilled gap up 1.64% from yesterday’s highs, which is likely to get filled as gaps often do. However, we note that the point of control (POC) is where we saw the QQQ reject, and quite clearly, a heavy influx of selling pressure stepped in at the close to drive any positive sentiment back lower.

As of the premarket, we are seeing some strength. However, until we see yesterday’s highs get cleared on high relative volume and, much more importantly, actual valid setups forming in the leadership groups, any bounce higher must be treated with caution until proven otherwise.

S&P Midcap 400

The midcaps themselves are holding onto their weekly point of control (POC), as they managed to see an intraday recovery. However, we are now seeing the MDY sandwiched between the now-lost 200-week EMA at $484 and this POC level at $471. The premarket is seeing the MDY managing to gap up over the 200 EMA, which is likely to be tested on the open. This is going to be a very important day for the midcaps, as we need to see the 200-week EMA hold on an intraday retracement. The visible range volume profile (VRVP) shows we exponentially lose demand the lower we go, and this POC level is by far the most significant level for the MDY.

Russell 2000

"The small caps bounced exactly at their POC level around $171, and we are now seeing a slow drift higher, with the ultimate goal being to reclaim the overhead 200 EMA. However, small caps tend to struggle more than their large-cap counterparts during times of heightened volatility and uncertainty. The reason for this is that small-cap stocks are often the most speculative segment of the market, driven more by investor sentiment, risk appetite, and macroeconomic conditions than by solid fundamentals.

When the broader market faces significant drawdowns or volatility, small caps typically see disproportionate sell-offs due to their higher beta and lower liquidity. In times like these, technical analysis can quickly lose its relevance, and a single headline or announcement can cause massive shifts in sentiment. So, the most important thing is to stay safe, manage risk, and be prepared for the potential longer-term opportunities once the dust settles.

DAILY FOCUS
Why Try Outsmart The Volatility?

As retail traders, we’re not in the business of constantly proving returns or pushing to generate profits every single day. We don't need to outsmart the market's volatility because we have the flexibility to choose when to act. This is where retail traders hold a significant advantage. Unlike hedge funds and institutional players who often have to maintain constant market exposure due to capital requirements, retail traders can afford to wait for the optimal conditions before taking action.

The key advantage is being able to trade only when the probability of a positive outcome is at its highest. This means waiting for setups that align perfectly with your system’s edge rather than forcing trades out of a need to stay active or meet short-term performance targets. We aren’t forced to make money every day, and that gives us the freedom to be selective, patient, and strategic.

Mean reversion is a very real phenomenon in financial markets. During periods of sharp declines, whether due to flash crashes or prolonged bear markets, the market often experiences extreme oversold conditions. While the immediate reaction is panic and uncertainty, these are precisely the moments when the conditions are set for a strong mean reversion.

Flash crashes or deep, drawn-out bear markets create massive dislocations in asset prices. When the market moves too far to one side—either overbought or oversold—it eventually corrects itself. The underlying forces of supply and demand work to push prices back toward their average, leading to aggressive and often prolonged rallies when the market reverses course. These mean reversions can be significant because the initial panic and selling create a coiled spring effect—once that pressure releases, we see powerful, sustained bull markets that last months and years.