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  • 🚨 Stocks Breakdown... Again.

🚨 Stocks Breakdown... Again.

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Exposure Status: Risk Off

NEWS

Millions Rush To Delete DNA Data As 23andMe Collapses🧬

DNA testing company 23andMe has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy - and its most valuable asset, genetic data from 15 million users, is now at the center of a legal firestorm.

While 23andMe insists customer data is still protected, bankruptcy law blurs the lines. The company’s assets - including highly sensitive biometric data - could be treated as part of the bankruptcy estate and sold off in a court-supervised auction. That has sparked major concerns among customers and privacy advocates alike.

As the news spread, users flooded the site to delete their accounts, overwhelming 23andMe’s systems. Many encountered login failures, expired verification codes, and long wait times for customer support. The company acknowledged the technical issues caused by the traffic surge and said they’ve since been resolved. Still, some users remain skeptical about whether their data was truly deleted.

Attorneys general from several states - including California, New York, and Arizona - have issued consumer alerts urging individuals to take action. They’re reminding users they have legal rights to delete genetic data and request destruction of any physical DNA samples still held by the company.

While 23andMe says any future buyer must follow current privacy laws, its own policy notes that data may be accessed or transferred during a sale - and could be subject to change. Legal experts predict that federal regulators, including the FTC, may step in. But for now, users are left in limbo, racing to erase their digital DNA before it lands in the wrong hands.

MARKET
Yet Another Bull Trap: Back To Risk Off

The U.S. economy showed a 2.4% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2020, slightly revised up from the earlier estimate of 2.3%. This growth, mainly driven by consumer spending, has been seen as a positive, though consumer spending itself was revised down to 4%. Despite this solid GDP number, we’re seeing little movement in premarket trading, which signals that the market isn’t really reacting to the data.

The bigger factor on traders’ minds is still the ongoing trade tensions. President Trump’s recent announcement to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports and threaten further duties on Canada and the EU has raised concerns over the potential economic fallout. His comments about imposing “far larger” tariffs if those trading partners work together against the U.S. have only added fuel to those fears.

Even though the GDP number was slightly stronger than expected, it's clear that investors are more focused on the uncertainty surrounding the trade war and its potential impact on the broader economy. As the situation remains unresolved, the market is still uncertain about how things will play out, and it’s clear that these concerns are outweighing any positive data for now. Until the trade landscape becomes clearer, we can expect to see continued market indecision and volatility.

Nasdaq

QQQ VRVP Daily Chart

The Nasdaq had a sharp rejection in yesterday's session, completely reversing on a high relative volume red day. It erased all the progress made in the previous two sessions, with the QQQ showing significant weakness, driven largely by the large-cap tech sector. The QQQ is still not at a point where we're seeing any meaningful follow-through on intraday pushes higher. A hallmark of a weak, bearish market is these short, low-volume rallies that end up trapping traders, setting them up for failure in a bull trap.

As we discussed earlier, the problems with low participation and drying liquidity have played out exactly as anticipated. Looking at the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), we can see a low-volume pocket down to $480, which very well may be the next likely test for the QQQ. This level is significant because it indicates an area where price action could move quickly without much support, especially in light of the current market conditions.

MAGS Daily Chart

It is hardly surprising when you look at the "Magnificent Seven" (MAGS) — the major tech stocks that make up the majority of the QQQ’s holdings. These stocks, including names like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, are all breaking down once again, falling back below their key 200-EMA, and will always drag down the rest of the market with them if they fail to see follow through.

S&P Midcap 400

MDY VRVP Weekly Chart

The midcaps have now been rejected at their 50-week EMA as of yesterday's session, and looking at the MDY chart, we can see that the weekly gains have been completely erased, leaving behind a long overhead wick. This suggests that the momentum from earlier in the week has fizzled out, and it's highly likely we see a continuation lower, with $538 being a key level to watch. This is where we have the next dense volume pocket, and it could serve as a significant support zone if the selling pressure persists.

Midcaps, as a general rule, will always struggle relative to larger-cap stocks. What happens in the large and mega-cap space tends to bleed into the midcap and small-cap names, but with more volatility. The moves are typically more exaggerated, and we're certainly seeing that play out right now.

Russell 2000

IWM VRVP Weekly Chart

The small caps are, of course, the hardest hit in this environment, and we’re seeing that underperformance play out in real time. The IWM has made practically no progress since June 2024—almost a full year of sideways movement. What’s more concerning is the long periods of relative low volume we've seen during the last month, particularly as the price attempted to bounce. This is a clear divergence and signals a lack of participation.

Essentially, as the IWM pushed higher in the past few weeks, the volume decreased, which means there was less demand behind those moves.

DAILY FOCUS
We Are Still In Wait & See Mode

Unfortunately, the ongoing uncertainty around the tariff talks and the broader trade war situation continues to weigh on market sentiment. As we’ve been noting, big players have yet to rotate money back into equities in any meaningful way. We’re still seeing that in the lack of trend development in leading stocks. The inability for the strongest names to form a solid, sustainable trend is a clear indicator that institutional money is largely sitting on the sidelines right now, waiting for clarity on the global macroeconomic front.

This situation is further compounded by the fact that the tariff talks remain unresolved, and that’s going to continue causing a level of hesitation in the market. Until that situation gets sorted, the market is stuck in limbo, and it’s tough to make any bold moves based solely on price action.

So what does this mean for us as traders? Patience. We’re in a period of consolidation and volatility, but when the big players do come back, you’ll know. Trust us, you’ll see it. There will be a clear uptick in volume, and most importantly, we’ll see a linear, sustained uptrend develop. Why? Because these big players aren’t quick to buy—they take days or even weeks to accumulate their positions. When they start entering, they don’t just push for short-term gains—they position for longer-term moves, and that’s when we’ll see the real momentum.

For now, it's a matter of sitting tight and being selective. We don’t need to chase anything. When that rotation finally starts, we’ll have clear signs in the market—follow the volume and price action.

Key Reminder: Tomorrow’s PCE data is a potential catalyst, and it could bring some volatility to the table. But even with that, don’t get swept up in short-term noise. Wait for the market to show its hand clearly—only take action when the setup is undeniable.

WATCHLIST
If You Really Want Long Exposure…

ORLA: Orla Mining Ltd.

ORLA Daily Chart

  • Right now, taking long exposure in the broader market is generally going against the prevailing trend, as the larger market currents are working against you. With the broader market still indecisive and lacking clear buyer aggression, it’s crucial to understand that trying to force exposure in the midst of this is risky. However, there are still pockets of strength, and the only place where you’re likely to find that right now is within safe haven assets.

  • Gold, for example, continues to perform well as a defensive trade. This is no surprise given the ongoing market uncertainty and indecision, where investors are continuing to seek safety. But beyond just gold itself, gold mining stocks are showing solid setups, and one of the most compelling names in this space is ORLA.

  • ORLA is presenting one of the cleanest Volatility Contraction Patterns (VCP) we’ve seen recently. The stock has been steadily building higher lows while contracting along its rising 10-EMA. This is a strong sign that the stock is coiling and preparing for a potential move. While there has been some rejection at the overhead resistance, this is typical in such patterns, and assuming the overall trend continues—meaning more money continues to flow into safe haven assets—ORLA has a strong chance of continuing to outperform.

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This newsletter does not provide financial advice. It is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade assets or make financial decisions. Please exercise caution and conduct your own research.

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