MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s All You Need To Know

• Futures are attempting a tentative rebound this morning after yesterday’s volatility, with Dow / S&P / Nasdaq futures modestly higher. The important context is the fact we’re still trading in a regime where direction changes hourly and markets are reacting to headlines, not really clean technical structure.

• Yesterday’s selloff was broad. All 11 S&P sectors closed red, with Materials (-2.7%) and Industrials (~-2%) the biggest damage. That’s notable because it wasn’t “just tech”, but it was a risk reduction wave across the entire tape.

• The market’s main macro variable remains energy. Oil is has become the mechanism through which this conflict can hit inflation, rates, and earnings. Crude is still elevated, but it did cool from the extremes, which is why futures are stabilizing at all.

• Policy is now directly entering the oil narrative too as Trump said the U.S. will provide risk insurance for maritime trade through the Persian Gulf to get tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent also flagged a “series of announcements” aimed at supporting Gulf oil trade. Translation: the U.S. is trying to cap the oil shock before it bleeds into CPI and the Fed path.

• The problem is the market does not yet see a real off-ramp. Both sides are still escalating, and that keeps this in “headline-watching” mode. When traders can’t model outcomes, they default to de-risking first, asking questions later.

• Inflation sensitivity is rising again. Goldman’s framework is basically that if energy stays elevated, inflation can run hotter near-term (their baseline path points to CPI drifting higher into May). This is because it directly interferes with the market’s “rate cuts will save us” narrative.

• Despite the chaos, U.S. equities are still trying to do what they usually do during geopolitics: absorb the shock, then normalize. The last two sessions were the perfect example with hard drops early, then meaningful recoveries into the close.

• Globally, the risk response looks more honest with international markets taking more direct pressure (Asia and parts of Europe have seen sharper drawdowns), and UAE equities reopening with heavy selling is a reminder that the stress is not evenly distributed.

• Today’s immediate catalyst risk is domestic data. ADP payrolls hits before the open, and in this regime even “secondary” macro prints can matter because positioning is fragile and volatility is already elevated.

• The actionable takeaway: until oil stabilizes and the conflict shows a credible path to de-escalation, we’re in a market where news overrides structure. That does not mean you can’t trade, it means you either shorten timeframes dramatically, or you prioritize capital preservation and wait for clarity.

Nasdaq

42.57%: over 20 EMA | 45.54%: over 50 EMA | 48.51%: over 200 EMA

• The QQQ printed extremely elevated relative volume, but the most important takeaway is that price once again defended the demand zone around $596, which has now held for roughly one full month of trading. The index has essentially been chopping sideways around this level, repeatedly testing demand and bouncing, but without generating any sustained upside momentum.

• While the defense of this level was technically constructive, the quality of the recovery was very poor. The intraday rebound quickly stalled and rejected the point of control near $608, which also aligned with the declining 10-week moving average. That rejection is significant because it confirms that supply continues to sit directly overhead.

• The more concerning element is that this entire sequence occurred on very high participation. When demand holds but fails to produce a meaningful recovery on heavy volume, it often signals that the market is absorbing liquidity without creating real upside progress.

• Because of that dynamic, the probability of further downside probing remains elevated. In environments like this, technical analysis becomes far less linear. Expect violent swings in both directions, with sharp intraday reversals and very little trend clarity.

• The key level remains unchanged. The $596 demand zone must hold. If that level fails on a closing basis, the QQQ likely begins the next leg lower toward the rising 200-day moving average near $584, which would also bring price much closer to the rising 50-week moving average.

S&P 400 Midcap

39.50%: over 20 EMA | 48.00%: over 50 EMA | 62.00%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps actually delivered a significantly stronger session than the Nasdaq, printing an extraordinary 281% relative volume versus the 20-day average. That type of participation almost always marks a major inflection point in price, and in this case it occurred directly at trend support.

• MDY initially undercut both the rising 20-week moving average and the rising 50-day moving average, before immediately reversing and closing higher. That undercut-and-reclaim dynamic is typically interpreted as strong demand behavior, especially when it occurs on very high participation.

• In addition, price tested a dense demand zone near $636, which represents a prior supply level that flipped into demand earlier in the trend. The ability to hold that level during a high-volatility session is an encouraging signal for the intermediate structure.

• That said, the broader environment remains extremely unstable. Even with the stronger reaction in mid-caps, the market is still operating in a headline-driven volatility regime.

• Because yesterday’s candle printed such a large range, the most probable near-term outcome is an inside session, where price simply digests the move. Until emotions cool and volatility contracts, intraday price action should not be trusted as a directional signal.

Russell 2000

39.46%: over 20 EMA | 46.87%: over 50 EMA | 59.90%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps delivered the weakest structural session of the three indices. The IWM actually broke its rising support structure from early February on expanding relative volume, which is a meaningful technical deterioration.

• Although the index finished the day printing a green hammer candle, which often signals demand, the broader context is far less constructive. Price is now materially below the 10-week moving average as well as the major daily moving averages, confirming that the short-term trend has already shifted lower.

• Small caps are naturally more sensitive during risk-off environments, and that vulnerability was clearly visible yesterday. The industrial sector (XLI) also took significant pressure, which adds another headwind given how closely small caps track cyclical segments of the economy.

• Structurally, IWM also rejected its weekly point of control during both Monday and Tuesday’s sessions, and it failed to reclaim the 50-day and 10-week moving averages during the attempted recovery.

• If small caps do not stage a very immediate rebound, the index risks transitioning toward a Stage 4 distribution / markdown phase, which would imply further structural weakness ahead.

FOCUSED STOCK
IREN: Crypto Still Showing Major Strength

ADR%: 10.88% | Off 52-week high: -49.5% | Above 52-week low: +658.0%

• Our focus stock today may come as a surprise, but we are watching IREN (Iris Energy) closely, not because we necessarily want to chase exposure immediately, but because the cryptocurrency segment continues to show relative strength compared to the broader equity market.

• While equities struggled through Monday and Tuesday’s volatility, crypto assets have largely held their structure and in some cases pushed higher, effectively ignoring the weakness that has hit other risk segments.

• IREN is particularly interesting because it carries extremely high relative strength versus the broader market and remains one of the leading Bitcoin mining names.

• On the weekly chart, the stock is currently undergoing a large contraction and base-building phase, pulling back directly into a major demand zone that has supported price since September 2025.

• With Bitcoin itself showing resilience and mining equities maintaining leadership characteristics, this demand zone in IREN represents a technically viable area to begin watching for pullback long exposure, provided the level continues to hold on a closing basis.