OVERVIEW
Trend Locked In, But Pace May Stall

🟢 Risk-On: QQQ, MDY, and IWM are all trending higher with confirmed weekly breakouts. Leadership rotation is healthy, but we’re now short-term extended across all three — caution on chasing fresh highs.

📊 Breadth Surging: Net new highs flipped back above +2% for the first time since February, and the Volume Summation Index just posted one of its sharpest ramps in months. Micro, nano, and midcaps are driving the strength.

🔄 Smart Rotation: Capital continues rotating into AI-linked segments like semiconductors, quantum computing, and cybersecurity.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Markets Digest New Trade Timeline

Equity futures are pulling back slightly this morning after the U.S. clarified that the next wave of tariff implementations is now set for August 1, not this week as many expected. This revision may cool short-term pressure, but the broader trade landscape remains a potential driver of headline-driven volatility as we move deeper into Q3.

The big picture?

📌 The tariff delay gives the market breathing room. Most participants had priced in a July adjustment window. That shift to August means institutional flows—especially around rebalancing and hedging—have time to adapt, not react.

📌 The threat of BRICS-related tariffs is noise—for now. The mention of potential penalties targeting BRICS-aligned countries added a layer of geopolitical risk, but without clear policy follow-through, the market will likely treat it as background tension rather than front-page fear.

📌 Tesla’s political overhang is stock-specific. While TSLA’s premarket drop has caught attention, the broader tech landscape remains largely unfazed. This looks more like a rotation out of company-specific risk than a systemic risk-off trigger.

From a tactical standpoint:

Despite the Monday dip in futures, last week closed on fresh highs, and Friday’s job data gave more support to the soft-landing + rate-cut thesis. There's no material change in macro tone yet—liquidity remains abundant, and economic data still allows the Fed room to maneuver.

Bottom line:
We’re in a bull market until proven otherwise. Short-term news cycles may trigger temporary dips, but for now, capital remains confidently deployed.

Just keep an eye on mid-August—when tariffs move from headline to reality, the tape will tell us whether real positioning starts to shift.

Nasdaq

• QQQ printed another all-time high on Thursday—on a half-session, no less. That kind of strength, especially during thin holiday liquidity, is telling.

• Earlier in the week, we saw a brief 3-day pullback as capital rotated out of mega caps and into small/mid caps, creating weakness in leaders like PLTR and generally the MAGS group.

Why it matters:

• The dip was bought aggressively. That reversal into fresh highs shows that buyers remain firmly in control—even after short-term rotations.

• Liquidity is broadening, not disappearing. The ability for QQQ to reclaim highs despite leadership rotation tells you this isn’t a shaky rally.

📌 Dips like this are where traders build patience and conviction. Learn to wait for structure, not chase momentum. In a market this strong, pullbacks are opportunities.

S&P 400 Midcap

• MDY confirmed its breakout last week by clearing the key POC at $569 and swiftly filling the low-volume zone up to $580.

• This move completes the inverse head & shoulders base—a textbook bear market bottoming structure, now transitioning into a deeper Stage 2 rally.

What we’re watching now:

• Price has rallied 3 days in a row and is currently pressing into dense overhead supply, so a short-term pause or pullback would be entirely normal.

• That said, momentum remains strong and this is a prime dip-buying zone if we see any orderly retracement back to the breakout area or rising EMAs.

📌 The midcap space has only recently joined the broader trend — this is still early-stage strength in a segment often overlooked. Stay alert for new leadership here.

Russell 2000

• IWM followed through beautifully on last week’s breakout — filling the low-volume gap between $210 and $224 almost tick-for-tick.

• As flagged last week, this zone had thin supply on the volume-by-price profile, meaning once price cleared resistance, there was little friction until $224. That’s the power of volume/price context — it shows you where demand can accelerate.

Here’s what to note now:

• Price is now pressing into dense supply near $224, which also aligns with a major volume shelf going back to late 2023.

• 📉 Relative volume has started fading, and IWM historically rarely rallies 3+ days in a row without a digestion phase.

📌 A pause here would be healthy — we’re watching for consolidation or controlled pullbacks as a sign of sustained strength, not weakness.

FOCUSED STOCK
ALKT: Quiet Setup, Very Big Potential

• ALKT is one of those under-the-radar tech names quietly setting up for what could be a textbook Stage 2 breakout.

• After reclaiming its POC at $30.50 last week, ALKT has begun tightening along its 200-day EMA — compression = potential energy.

• The stock is now coiling just below a clear resistance zone at $31, with a rising base structure and clear volume shelf underneath.

Why it matters:

• This isn't a flashy name, but that’s the point — it’s part of the internal rotation into mid-tier tech while the mega caps digest.

• Combine that with strong revenue growth and improving structure, and you’ve got a high-quality breakout candidate with room to run.

📌 We’re watching for a clean move through $31 with elevated volume — if it triggers, it could offer a tight-risk, high-reward setup in a quiet pocket of strength.

FOCUSED GROUP
CIBR: Cybersecurity Moving Again

• CIBR snapped back strong Thursday, reclaiming its entire pullback despite the half-day — that’s real relative volume strength.

• The group bounced cleanly off the rising 20EMA + POC around $73, setting up for fresh highs.

• This is a classic bullish retest → expansion pattern, and it puts the cybersecurity group back in the rotation spotlight.

• Also keep in mind, there isupport from the broader AI + enterprise software trend playing out in the market.

📌 Focus on names like CRWD and PLTR — both showing tight, constructive price action with strong trends intact.

Q&A
Managing Gap Downs: What’s the Exit?

Q: “What happens if a stock you entered long with a stop loss on the lows of the day gaps down the next morning?”

This is one of those moments where mechanical systems and discretion intersect.

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer—but here’s how we handle it at Swingly, combining system rules with tape reading:

⚠️ Scenario 1: It Gapped Down Overnight

This is a gap-risk scenario, and we don’t blindly exit on the open.

Instead, we use the 5-Minute Opening Range Low (ORL) rule:

• Let the first 5-minute candle form

• Mark the low of that candle

• If the stock breaks below that ORL with momentum → exit

• If it holds or reclaims → let the trade play out

This protects you from panic-selling a name that may reverse quickly — especially in a strong market.

📉 Scenario 2: It Broke Down Intraday

If the stock breaks below its trend during the regular session, we handle it differently.

Here’s our checklist for an exit signal:

• ✅ Closed below the 10EMA or 20EMA

• ✅ Closed on high relative volume

• ✅ Closed well below the EMA (we use a 50% distance rule)

If all three are true, that’s a clear break of trend — and we’ll usually exit into that close or the next morning.

📌 When Do We Give More Room?

We give more breathing room to:

• Market leaders

• Stocks we have a solid profit cushion in

• Strong markets with broad participation

In those cases, we still want to see how the next day opens before deciding. But if it fails the ORL the next morning — we’re out.

Want full access to the setups, exits, and execution rules we actually use?

We break it all down every single day inside Swingly Pro — with real-time setups, live trade reviews, and the exact playbook behind every move.

That’s all inside Swingly Pro → see what’s included