OVERVIEW
Today’s Session Is Really Important

🟥 Risk-Off (Growth) | 🟨 Neutral-to-Bullish (Defensives)

Friday’s action was a genuine wake-up call. Small caps printed a weak candle on monster relative volume, midcaps lost key short-term moving averages, and large cap tech broke down from a bearish rising wedge — all signs that risk appetite is fading quickly.

🔄 Rotation Watch: The most important development now is whether capital begins to flow toward defensive names — think gold, oil, and utilities — or if Friday was just a one-off shakeout. The gold miner group (GDX) is already moving, and XLE (Energy) continues to attract bids. On the other hand, tech, small caps, and growth names are showing early signs of distribution.

📌 What to Do Now: Today’s close will tell us a lot. If we can’t reclaim key short-term levels (e.g., 10- and 20-day EMAs, key POCs), then this likely isn’t just noise — it’s the beginning of a meaningful character shift. Stay light. Stay patient. Let the market prove itself before reloading risk in growth.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Conflict Continues, But Markets Stabilize (For Now)

Tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated after a weekend of retaliatory strikes targeting energy infrastructure. The threat of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz — a vital global oil artery — has kept energy markets on edge, although oil prices have cooled off slightly from Friday’s spike.

Friday’s session saw broad selling across equities, with Bitcoin and equities as a whole breaking down. But as of pre-market Monday, risk appetite has stabilized somewhat, particularly in large cap tech, as traders reassess the likelihood of a full-scale escalation.

Gold continues to act as a safe haven bid, while energy remains in play — and both are sectors we’re tracking closely for rotation opportunities.

📌 Key Point: The headlines are loud, but we’re focused on the tape. So far, markets are treating this as a contained conflict. But if we see a re-acceleration in oil or a breakdown in major equity support zones, we’ll reassess.

Nasdaq

The QQQ — which tracks the Nasdaq 100 and represents the largest and most heavily weighted tech names — printed a high relative volume breakdown Friday out of the ascending wedge we’ve been flagging all week. This is a textbook bearish structure, and Friday’s move confirms the short-term risk.

What’s most important isn’t just that price moved lower — it’s how it behaved:

• QQQ attempted an intraday bounce but was rejected right at prior support, which has now turned into resistance. That shift in behavior — a support level failing and immediately acting as resistance — is a classic red flag in momentum structure.

• The rejection came with real volume. That confirms participation — not just noise.

📉 Key Levels:

• $520 is still the POC (point of control), and it aligns with the rising 20-day EMA.

• That zone is the absolute battleground this week — if it holds, then Friday may prove to be an overreaction.

• But if we break cleanly below the 20-day EMA, that opens the door for a much broader pullback in the group.

📌 What to Do:

• The burden of proof now sits with the bulls — QQQ needs to reclaim Friday’s failed support level fast.

• Until then, initiating fresh long exposure in large cap tech is high risk.

• Let the chart requalify itself — if we’re in a rotation phase (as we’ve seen signs of with money flowing into defensive and hard asset names), then we must stay tactical.

📎 Bottom Line: The uptrend hasn’t died — yet. But Friday’s candle was a change in character. Tech must now prove it’s still the leadership group before we trust it again. Let the 20-EMA and POC decide the next move.

S&P 400 Midcap

Friday was a weak session for the midcaps (MDY), as they lost both the rising 10-day and 20-day EMAs on a low relative volume pullback — not ideal, but not yet a breakdown.

The bigger issue: Friday’s intraday rejection came right at the 7-month descending trendline — the same one we’ve been monitoring for a potential Stage 2 breakout. That test failed. Price was turned away sharply, which suggests sellers are still active and the overhead supply in this area remains dense.

⚠️ What This Means:

• Momentum has clearly paused — and the first breakout attempt over the downtrend has now failed.

• MDY is clinging to its 200-day EMA, which offered support on Friday. That level must hold or the narrative shifts rapidly.

🧠 The Technical Context:

• The larger inverse head and shoulders reversal remains intact, and the big picture setup is still valid as long as we stay above the $540 region — which is also where the 50-day EMA and POC converge.

• But make no mistake: If MDY starts closing below that $540 zone, we’re no longer dealing with a failed breakout — we’re likely looking at a breakdown.

📌 What to Watch:

• Look for strong buyers to step in quickly this week to reclaim the 10/20-day EMAs — that would restore some confidence.

• Otherwise, expect this group to need more time to base and reset before another breakout attempt can form.

This is now a “prove-it” moment for midcaps. Stay tactical. The opportunity isn’t gone — but the easy momentum setup is.

Russell 2000

Friday was a pivotal session for small caps (IWM), and not in a good way. We saw a sharp pullback directly into the rising 200-day EMA and Point of Control (POC) — both of which sit near the $206 breakout level that had previously marked the neckline of the 7-month inverse head and shoulders. That pattern had triggered a textbook Stage 2 breakout… but the jury’s now out on whether it can hold.

What really raises concern here is the character of Friday’s candle: a weak close on monster relative volume. When you get that type of downside volume at key support, it often signals institutional distribution — or at the very least, indecision from the buyers who were previously in control.

🧠 Why This Matters:

• The area between $206–$208 is absolutely critical. This is where the 20-day and 200-day EMAs converge with the POC and prior breakout level.

• If buyers don’t step in here with urgency, it raises the risk that this whole breakout was a failed move — and failed breakouts often lead to fast moves in the opposite direction.

📌 What to Watch:

• A bounce from this zone today on rising relative volume would suggest the demand is still there and this is just a healthy retest.

• A weak session or a close below $207 would trigger a change in character — and shift us back into a more cautious stance.

This is where we separate strong trends from failed ones. Stay vigilant — the next 1–2 sessions are critical for IWM.

FOCUSED STOCK
CRWD: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

While Palantir (PLTR) has firmly established itself as one of the undisputed leaders of this cycle — not just grinding higher, but expanding its lead with fresh all-time highs premarket — we’re now seeing continued relative strength across the entire cybersecurity group (CIBR).

One name that stands out in this rotation: CrowdStrike (CRWD).

CRWD has been in a clean uptrend since bottoming with a textbook double-bottom reversal back in March–April. What makes this setup especially compelling now:

• It’s coiling tightly just under its all-time highs — a major psychological and structural breakout level.

• The stock is pulling back constructively to the rising 10-day EMA, forming a well-defined volatility contraction pattern.

• Relative volume on up days remains strong, and the group ETF (CIBR) confirms institutional accumulation across the sector.

This is how leaders behave before they make new legs up: controlled pullbacks into rising EMAs, with no signs of distribution, while peers (like PLTR) are already breaking out.

What to Watch 🔎

• Watch for a breakout above Friday’s high or a clean Opening Range High (ORH) over the next session or two.

• Volume should expand meaningfully on the breakout — that’s your confirmation.

• This setup becomes invalidated only on a decisive break below the 10-EMA with high volume — which would indicate failed demand and a potential deeper pullback.

Big picture: Cybersecurity is one of the healthiest sub-sectors in tech right now, and CRWD remains one of the clearest leadership vehicles within it.

FOCUSED GROUP
GDX: Gold Miners

Friday’s macro shock — with oil and gold spiking while equities softened — has firmly rotated our attention toward gold-related names, especially the GDX ETF and its top components. This is one of the clearest “flight to safety” rotations we’ve seen in weeks, and it’s critical to approach it with a process — not prediction.

While GDX surged early Friday, the group ultimately failed to hold its intraday strength, with many top gold miners unable to break above their 5-minute Opening Range Highs (ORH). This is important: most of our entries come from early strength continuation, and fading those levels invalidated most setups.

Still, the bigger picture remains highly constructive:

• The macro backdrop is aligning: A spike in gold (GLD) is often followed by flows into miners (GDX), as institutions seek leveraged exposure to the commodity trend.

• From a top-down view, the gold complex (GLD → GDX → leaders) is technically aligned — we just haven’t yet seen individual names confirm with valid breakouts or strong pullback entries.

What to Watch 🔎
This is not the time to chase laggards. Our scans this morning are focused on:

• Relative strength leaders that are already above their 10/20EMAs,

• Tight volatility contraction patterns sitting near prior breakouts,

• High ADR, liquid names that tend to lead GDX (e.g., AEM, KGC, AGI).

The opportunity is brewing — but execution will require patience. Let the group confirm.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you know when a stock’s rally is over?”

A: You don’t — and that’s the point.

If you’re trying to call tops, you’ve already lost the plot. Trend-following systems aren’t designed to “know” when a rally is over. They’re designed to respond when a high-probability trend deterioration occurs. Anything else is just discretion masked as analysis.

At Swingly, we apply a probabilistic framework rooted in trend structure, statistical extremes, and volatility expansion. Here’s how we assess it:

1. Objective Trend Decay Criteria (Timeframe-Specific):
We monitor price behavior relative to trend anchors. For swing trades, that’s typically the daily 10EMA, 20EMA, and 50EMA. For position trades, we zoom out to the weekly 10EMA and 20EMA.

A strong trend remains intact as long as price:

• Stays above the rising 10/20EMA,

• Pulls back orderly into the rising MAs,

• Holds structure on volume-supported consolidations.

A decisive break and close below the 20EMA — especially on increasing volume and with a shift in character (e.g. failed follow-through, major sector weakness, lower highs, distribution candles) — is often our first actionable signal that the rally may be weakening.

2. Statistical Extension Thresholds (Risk-Reward Skew):
We never fade strength, but we do flag unsustainable conditions. Our benchmark for “statistical overextension” is when a stock trades >10x ATR multiple above the 50EMA. That’s usually precedes either a volatility reset (e.g. high tight flag, fast pullback) or a failed breakout on any new attempts to push.

Most retail traders make two critical errors:

• They exit early based on arbitrary judgment (“It’s gone up too much”),

• Or they hold forever without re-evaluating character shift.

We do neither: The goal isn’t to predict when a rally ends — it’s to ride the trend until the structure breaks down. Leading stocks don’t give up their trends easily. If a name is still riding its EMAs, building volume-supported flags, and holding breakout retests — the rally isn’t over. The stock will tell you when it is. Your job is to listen, not guess.