OVERVIEW
Expect Very Choppy Moves Today

🟡 Moderate Risk-On: Despite mounting geopolitical risks, price action this week has remained remarkably orderly across U.S. equities. Index structure remains intact — small and mid caps still holding key moving averages; QQQ digesting near highs. Energy and precious metals remain bid — classic rotation behavior — but no “risk-off” panic.

📈 Triple Witching Today: ~$6.8 trillion in options expire today — one of the largest events on record. Expect erratic intraday flows and forced positioning moves. Watch for volatility into the close — moves may not be clean.

🌏 Macro Backdrop: The Israel-Iran conflict continues to simmer but has not yet escalated into a full market event. Oil elevated, but no major supply disruptions yet priced in.

📌 What to Do Now: This is a day for patience, not pressing. Let volatility shake out post-OpEx before getting aggressive. Leading stocks and sectors remain intact — no reason to shift bias — but discipline is key with potential headline risks and noisy price action.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Massive Triple Witching = Volatility Risk Today

 We are heading into a very important trading session — and not just because of the ongoing Middle East tension.

Today marks triple witching — when index futures, index options, and stock options all expire simultaneously. This happens four times per year — but this particular OpEx is set to be one of the largest in history, with nearly $6.8 trillion in expiring contracts. On top of that, it’s the first time in decades this magnitude of expiration has landed on a post-holiday Friday — a key dynamic that often amplifies intraday volatility.

Why does this matter?
When so much open interest expires, it forces large dealers, market makers, and funds to rapidly unwind or rebalance hedges — which can cause sudden, outsized price swings (both directions) and very noisy price action — especially in the final 90 minutes of trade. You’ll likely see unusual intraday moves today that have little to do with “fundamentals” and everything to do with positioning shifts.

Meanwhile, the Israel-Iran conflict remains on edge — but so far, markets are pricing in a “contained” scenario: oil remains elevated but stable; equities aren’t pricing in a wider energy shock or war premium just yet. Trump’s rhetoric around Tehran remains aggressive, with potential U.S. strikes still on the table — but there’s no immediate action so far. Still, this is headline risk — so expect any breaking developments here to spike volatility intraday.

📌 The core driver of today’s tape will be OpEx flows — not macro data or earnings.
📌 The war premium isn’t fully priced in — but markets aren’t panicking either.
📌 Expect erratic price behavior, especially late day. This is not an easy day to size up risk.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq, tracking large and mega-cap tech, is flashing some caution here: we’ve now seen three consecutive days of rising relative volume as price continues to stall and reject against dense overhead supply near $530 — a key resistance zone (grey box on your chart).

This is an important inflection point for the entire market. Remember: QQQ is the barometer for broader risk appetite — it dominates capitalization-weighted indices like SPY, and houses the bulk of retail-favorite names.

If QQQ struggles or breaks lower here, expect that weakness to flow across the broader tape. For now, the pressure is clearly building — and the next move will likely dictate near-term market tone.

S&P 400 Midcap

The midcaps remain in a contracting range, sitting right on their rising 200-day EMA and Point of Control (POC) — but there isn’t much bullish momentum to speak of here. In fact, the POC is now beginning to act more like resistance, which is a subtle but important shift in tape character.

Below current levels, there’s a low-volume pocket all the way down to the rising 50-day EMA — meaning if momentum further deteriorates (and that’s increasingly the case across large to small caps), MDY will likely struggle even more.

Combine this with elevated geopolitical tension pressuring risk assets overall, and it’s clear: this is not a segment to lean into right now. No need to overcomplicate — the trend is soft, and patience is required.

Russell 2000

Wednesday’s session brought very high relative volume in IWM — but rather than confirming strength, the tape told a different story: the index faded throughout the day, indicating that much of this volume was profit-taking and supply stepping in, not fresh buying.

Structurally:

• IWM is still holding above its rising 20-day EMA and 200-day EMA — which remain key levels for near-term momentum

• The larger inverse head and shoulders pattern — which triggered this Stage 2 breakout — is still valid, but now at risk of testing its breakout zone

Bottom line: This is not a failed breakout yet — but the action suggests caution is warranted. If demand fails to defend the rising EMAs, odds of a deeper pullback increase. We'll be watching for confirmation either way before committing fresh risk in small caps.

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FOCUSED STOCK
TSLA: Tesla, Inc.

TSLA is one of the top growth names on our radar this week — it’s forming a very tight volatility contraction pattern (VCP) over the last 2 weeks, coiling along the rising 50-day EMA while pressing against the declining 10- and 20-day EMAs.

After the sharp early-June selloff — triggered largely by the Trump vs. Elon political drama — TSLA staged a full reversal higher, reclaiming its Point of Control (POC). This reversal invalidated the prior downtrend and demonstrated that real demand stepped in at key technical levels.

Notably:

• The recent pole of this bull flag came on high momentum

• The last 2 weeks have shown declining volume — a textbook sign of supply drying up, often preceding larger directional moves

• The prior political-driven selloff looks increasingly like an overreaction in hindsight

Bottom line: TSLA is now sitting right under layered moving averages, with price compressing. If the current contraction resolves higher, the potential for a strong breakout is in place — especially with the broader growth complex trying to stabilize post-recent volatility.

FOCUSED SECTOR
XLRE: Real Estate

Real Estate has been quietly building a 10-month base after initially distributing lower last September. The same descending bear market resistance — which capped every rally since — now lines up at ~$42.20 and is being tested (and potentially broken) in this morning’s premarket.

We’re also seeing a notable pick-up in relative volume through June as XLRE pushes higher — a key signal this isn’t random drift, but real demand returning.

Technically, XLRE is shaping an inverse head & shoulders on the daily chart:

• Left shoulder: March–April

• Head: The April capitulation low

• Right shoulder: Now potentially forming, with a strong premarket push back toward resistance.

Importantly, XLRE tagged its Point of Control (POC) on Wednesday, found support, and rebounded — another confirmation buyers are stepping in at the right spots.

Why this matters: These early “character shifts” in a sector — after a long bear phase — are exactly what can drive multi-month moves if they follow through. It’s time to start running deeper scans here for emerging leaders, as this is the kind of rotation that can last much longer than most expect.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you manage open positions when the macro news cycle goes crazy?”

A: The key is to follow your system, not the headlines. We never sell a position just because of macro noise. We only sell because price and volume behavior have changed — in other words, when the chart tells us to.

For us, that means:
✅ We always trim a portion of the position into initial strength — usually during the first 3–5 days after entry, when a stock typically delivers a 2–3R move.
✅ After that, if the stock closes below the rising 10-EMA or 20-EMA on our timeframe — that’s our sell signal. If it doesn’t, we stay in.

If a stock gets extremely extended — say, more than 10x ATR from the 50-EMA — some traders will trim a bit to smooth their equity curve. That’s fine, but as pure trend traders, we usually let the trend run and stick to our trailing EMA rules.

Bottom line: No discretionary guesses- you trade a system not your guesses. No reacting to news headlines. Let the chart tell you what to do.