OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

• Macro tone: Markets are cautious this morning as US–China trade tensions escalate. Gold and silver lead, crypto and oil retreat — risk appetite is still fragile.

• Nasdaq: Led the rebound yesterday with +40% jump in breadth (28% → 38.6%), but premarket weakness shows one session doesn’t make a trend. Expect a test of Friday’s lows near $595 as supply remains heavy.

• Midcaps (MDY): Full breakdown. The 50-day EMA flipped to resistance — first decisive loss of that level all year. Watching $581 for demand response, but for now this remains an avoid.

• Small Caps (IWM): Most constructive group. Reclaimed 10- and 20-day EMAs and rallied intraday off POC $241. What we want now is acceptance + consolidation here to confirm structural stability.

• ORLA (Focused Stock): Textbook volatility contraction setup. Trading tight around POC $11, with low supply above $11.50. One of the cleanest bases in the gold/precious metals rotation.

• QTUM (Focused Group): Quantum computing remains the strongest growth theme of 2025. ETF reclaimed its 10-EMA with rising 2-month volume trend and leaders (RGTI, QBTS) +25%. Sector still showing real demand — keep this group on radar.

MARKET ANALYSIS
It’s Still Too Early To Call A Bottom

• Markets are still treading carefully this morning as US-China trade tensions flare, stirring uncertainty across equities, crypto, and commodities.

• China’s latest sanctions on US-linked shipping firms have renewed concerns about a potential escalation, while earnings season is in full swing as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo delivered strong profits, and BlackRock saw record inflows into private and alternative assets.

• Safe-haven assets are the leaders: gold and silver climbed again, with silver hitting record highs amid London liquidity concerns.

• Oil retreated amid the trade uncertainty, while cryptocurrencies fell sharply, shedding over $150 billion in market value as risk appetite waned.

We are still in a defensive, wait and see mode. There is no trophies for rushing exposure.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 38.61% | % over 50 EMA: 46.53% | % over 200 EMA: 57.42%

• The Nasdaq led yesterday’s rebound, posting the strongest bounce among the major groups.

• But premarket action shows mild weakness today- a reminder that one session doesn’t make a trend.

• Breadth Improvement:

  • The percentage of Nasdaq components above their 20-day EMA jumped from 28% → 38.6%, a +40% increase in a single day.

  • That’s a solid breadth pop, but not confirmation as breadth thrusts need persistence over multiple sessions before they hold statistical significance and we were very oversold on Friday.

• Technical View (QQQ):

  • After Friday’s flush, QQQ staged a sharp rebound off the 10-day EMA, but there’s still dense supply overhead and particularly between $595–$605 on the volume profile.

  • This area will likely act as resistance, and a retest of Friday’s lows wouldn’t be surprising if momentum stalls.

  • For now, price remains within a short-term volatility pocket, and the next few sessions will determine whether this was a true pivot or just a reflex bounce.

We would be very careful going aggressive today prediction further up or downside, it is too early to long and too early too short- we need trend.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 28.67% | % over 50 EMA: 33.66% | % over 200 EMA: 53.11%

• The midcap segment is in a full-on breakdown, losing critical structure that had held since the market’s Q1 rally.

• Technical Breakdown:

  • The 50-day EMA has now flipped into resistance, confirming a change in character. Even during the late-July pullback, buyers stepped in along that moving average and this time, they didn’t.

  • Monday’s bounce was faded immediately, showing that supply is now in control.

  • We’re watching for a potential flush toward $581, which aligns with a high-density demand zone on the visible range volume profile.

  • If buyers defend that zone with volume, it could offer a short-term reflex bounce, but until then, this remains an avoid for us.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 31.09% | % over 50 EMA: 40.71% | % over 200 EMA: 53.43%

• Monday’s session saw IWM reclaim both the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, a sharp contrast to the Nasdaq and the midcaps, which both remain under pressure.

• The ETF gapped higher and rallied intraday off the Point of Control (POC) near $241, confirming active demand exactly at the key liquidity zone.

• This reaction from POC marks a high-quality structural response, with buyers defending where prior volume concentrated.

• What We Need to See:

  • From a market structure perspective, what we want now is for price to stabilize and build value around this $241–$244 range.

  • Sustained hand-to-hand exchange between buyers and sellers here would signal that participants are comfortable with current valuations and this will be healthiest possible next step after a major bounce.

  • Additionally by seeing consolidation, we will allow for the stocks underwater to begin to base out and reveal which ones are actual relative strength leader, and which ones have been rallying on sympathy flows.

FOCUSED STOCK
ORLA: A Major Precious Metal Base

ADR%: 5.90% | Off 52-week high: -11.0% | Above 52-week low: +201.6%

• Sector Context: Gold & Precious Metals are currently the strongest-performing group of 2025, showing major relative strength as growth equities weaken.

• Macro Rotation: Capital is rotating into hard assets, and ORLA sits at the center of that leadership theme, benefiting from defensive inflows and inflation hedging narratives.

  Daily Chart

  • Trading in a tight volatility contraction around the Point of Control (POC) at $11, reflecting institutional absorption after months of rotation.

  • Low overhead supply above $11.50, as shown by the volume profile which is suggesting limited resistance once demand expands.

  • Price now sitting above the 10- and 21-day EMAs, showing renewed accumulation after several successful retests of short-term moving averages.

  • Volume compression + price stability = the classic VCP setup before range expansion.

  • A decisive breakout through $11.50 with volume would likely trigger momentum continuation and draw trend followers back into the name.

• On the weekly chart we see a multi-quarter base structure forming between $10–$12, following a major advance through 2024.

• Behavior fits a Stage 2 reaccumulation pattern rather than distribution with higher lows, steady support along the POC, and consistent buying interest on dips.

This is one of the cleanest setups inside our current Gold Rotation Playbook- see the full breakdown in Swingly PRO.

FOCUSED GROUP
QTUM: The Strongest Growth Group

• Quantum computing has been one of the absolute monster trades of 2025 and is easily the top-performing innovation themes this year.

• The QTUM ETF captures this entire move, led by explosive leaders like Rigetti (RGTI), IonQ (IONQ), and D-Wave (QBTS).

• Price Behavior:

  • QTUM has been in a strong, persistent uptrend for two months (stage 2 rally), with rising volume confirming institutional accumulation.

  • After an overextended run, the ETF saw a sharp shakeout on Friday, but what mattered most was the response as buyers immediately stepped back in Monday, reclaiming the 10-day EMA and this is very different to almost all the other highly speculative growth groups.

  • That swift recovery and follow-through action show healthy demand is there even post the Trump China Saga which sparked the broad sell off on Friday.

  Volume Confirmation:

  • Volume has also been steadily rising throughout the last two months which is a sign that participation keeps increasing as prices move higher.

• Leadership Confirmation:

  • Group leaders like RGTI and QBTS each surged +25% in the same session which is confirming broad strength across the theme.

  • This reinforces that QTUM’s move isn’t isolated and it’s backed by coordinated leadership action across its components.

We have attached the 10 largest holdings in the group and he highly recommend everyone keeps a very close eye for either pullback longs (assuming the market bounces), or for relative strength on a continued broad deterioration.