MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s What Matters Today

• Yesterday’s session materially improved the market tone and this was not just a defensive bounce, and it was not just short covering in beaten-down names.

• The move came through the exact areas that needed to respond: large-cap growth, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and high-beta technology. QQQ and SPY both held their key support zones, semiconductors bounced from the rising 10-week EMA, and several growth leaders expanded on strong relative volume.

• That is the important change. Last week, the market was questioning whether the AI trade had become too crowded, too capital intensive, and too vulnerable to higher rates. Yesterday, buyers stepped back into the group with real participation. TSLA saw high relative-volume expansion, AMD broke out, and the NVDA long idea we discussed yesterday triggered from a major support zone. That is not the same as a passive bounce. That is capital rotating back into leadership.

• The semiconductor reaction was especially important. The group had become the emotional center of the market after the Micron volatility and the broader AI capex concerns. If semiconductors had failed at the 10-week EMA, the Nasdaq would have had a much harder time repairing. Instead, the group defended exactly where it needed to defend. That gives the market a much cleaner path higher in the short term.

• The broader first-half picture also supports this. Tech was the clear winner in the first six months of the year, even with the late-June volatility. The Nasdaq 100 gained roughly 19.9% in the first half, compared with 9.55% for the S&P 500, 12.79% for the Nasdaq Composite, and 8.85% for the Dow. That confirms the market is still rewarding growth leadership, even if the path has become more volatile.

• The more interesting point is that the leadership has not been limited to U.S. Big Tech. Emerging-market technology gained more than 90% in the first half, European technology added around 44.8%, and U.S. technology gained roughly 19.4%. South Korea’s Kospi surged more than 100%, Japan’s Nikkei gained around 39%, and the broader MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 24%. This is not just a narrow U.S. mega-cap story. It is a global technology and liquidity story.

• That matters because global leadership breadth gives the U.S. growth bounce more credibility. When semiconductors, emerging-market tech, Asian hardware names, European tech, and U.S. AI leaders are all participating in the same broader trend, it becomes harder to dismiss the move as a one-day relief rally.

• There is also a rotation element inside the AI trade itself. Investors still want AI exposure, but they are becoming more selective. The market is no longer treating every AI-adjacent name equally. The best response is coming in leaders with real demand, cleaner technical structure, and identifiable support levels. That is why names like NVDA and AMD matter so much here. They are not just individual stock stories. They are leadership tells for the entire growth complex.

• Macro is also less hostile than it was last week. The U.S.-Iran situation is still a headline risk, but the market is no longer pricing an immediate energy shock. Oil remains important, but it is not currently the dominant driver of the tape. That allows equities to refocus on earnings, liquidity, AI demand, and technical support.

• The main risk remains the Fed. Higher yields and rate-hike risk still matter, especially for long-duration growth stocks. But yesterday’s price action showed that the market is willing to look through that risk when the leading groups defend key levels and participation improves. That is a meaningful change from last week’s more fragile tape.

• Precious metals are sending a different message. Gold and silver are still selling off, pressured by higher-rate expectations and a stronger risk-on impulse. But both are now very extended to the downside, with roughly -5 ATR multiple downside extension. That does not mean the trend has automatically reversed, but it does mean the near-term short trade is becoming crowded. A mean reversion bounce in gold and silver is becoming increasingly likely.

• That potential metals bounce should not be confused with equity weakness by default. It could simply be a technical snapback after an aggressive liquidation phase. The cleaner macro read is that growth is taking the bid while precious metals are approaching exhaustion levels after a sharp downside move.

• The tape now looks healthier than it did a few sessions ago. QQQ held support. SPY held support. Semiconductors defended the 10-week EMA. TSLA expanded on strong relative volume. AMD broke out. NVDA triggered from the support setup. Global tech leadership remains dominant across the first-half data. That is a very different message from the one we had during last week’s AI unwind.

Nasdaq

50.49%: over 20 EMA | 51.48%: over 50 EMA | 59.40%: over 200 EMA

• QQQ did exactly what we wanted to see yesterday. The expansion came from the $705 area, which was not a random support level.

• That zone aligned with the rising 50-day EMA, the 10-week moving average, and the daily visible range volume profile’s point of control. In other words, price bounced from the most important support cluster on the chart.

• That is constructive but the caveat is volume. Yesterday’s upside expansion came on declining relative volume, and that matters because price is now pushing into a very dense VRVP level around $737.

• A low-volume expansion into a high-volume resistance zone is not the place to start chasing marginal high exposure.

• From here, we would not be surprised to see a pullback toward roughly $723, which would partially reverse yesterday’s session. But that would not invalidate the strength of the move. It would simply be normal digestion after a sharp bounce from a major support cluster.

• This is exactly why we highlighted yesterday that the correct trade was pullback-long exposure, not buying a marginal high. The edge was at the 10-week EMA and 50-day EMA test near $705. That was where the risk/reward was clean. Buying into $737 supply is a very different trade.

• The broader structure is now more constructive than it was last week. The Adam & Eve top risk has weakened because QQQ defended the neckline/support zone and expanded higher from it.

• Instead of validating a breakdown, the chart is now behaving more like an intermediate contraction inside the weekly uptrend.

• The Magnificent 7 complex confirms that read. MAGS held and expanded from its 50-week EMA, which is exactly why we were willing to be more aggressive with long exposure inside the big-tech complex.

• That support hold matters because the MAGS are still the group that determines whether the Nasdaq bounce can extend.

• Nvidia also did what we wanted. Yesterday’s pullback-long idea has now triggered and worked. NVDA is pushing into its own visible range volume profile point of control around the $200 area, which also lines up with the declining 10-day EMA. That is likely to act as near-term resistance.

• So the NVDA trade is no longer fresh. The correct entry was as close as possible to the 200-day EMA, with stops below that level. At $200, this is no longer a clean pullback-long entry. It is now pushing into resistance.

S&P 400 Midcap

65.16%: over 20 EMA | 64.91%: over 50 EMA | 65.41%: over 200 EMA

• MDY expanded yesterday on very strong participation, with relative volume running around 180% of the 20-day average. That is not passive strength. Buyers are still supporting this market aggressively, and MDY continues to hold above its 10-day EMA.

• This is why we are shifting more attention back toward mid and small caps. They are not as clean as large-cap tech from an entry standpoint, but they are confirming that risk appetite is still present under the surface.

• The main concern is breadth extension. Around 65.16% of mid-cap stocks are now trading above their 20-day EMA, which is strong, but also starting to get stretched. That does not mean the trade is over. It just means entry discipline matters more.

• The visible range volume profile still shows disproportionate buyer aggression. Buyers are continuing to hit the ask and drive price higher, which supports the idea that MDY can continue to rally.

• The issue is not direction. The issue is trade structure as MDY remains choppy. The market is moving higher, but the path is not particularly linear.

• That makes entries harder to time and exits harder to model. For swing trading, that matters. We want trend, but we also want clean structure.

• The best way to approach MDY is still through pullbacks. The group is strong enough to respect, but not clean enough to chase aggressively into strength.

Russell 2000

70.67%: over 20 EMA | 67.44%: over 50 EMA | 65.42%: over 200 EMA

• IWM is giving the same broad message as MDY: risk appetite is alive, but the entry quality is not as clean as we would like.

• Small caps expanded higher yesterday, although relative volume was lower at around 84% of the 20-day average. There was also no meaningful expansion in average true range, so the move was not as forceful as what we saw in MDY or parts of the growth complex.

• That said, the underlying demand is still very strong. On the visible range volume profile, yesterday’s lows showed roughly 9.51M shares traded green versus about 5M shares traded red.

• That is close to a 2-to-1 buyer imbalance at the support area. Buyers are still stepping in and driving price higher from pullbacks.

• That is important because IWM remains one of the better risk-appetite signals in the market. If small caps are still being bought on weakness, the market is not in broad de-risking mode.

• The concern is the weekly structure. Price has been ascending while relative volume has been declining, and that is still something we need to see break. Rising price on falling participation can work for a while, but eventually we want volume to confirm the move.

• So the read is constructive, but not blindly bullish. IWM is strong, but fresh exposure is harder unless it comes from a pullback. The better entry quality is still in big tech, semiconductors, software and quantum, where we can identify cleaner support tests and leadership names.

FOCUSED STOCK
MTSI: Still Going Big On Semiconductors

ADR%: 6.06% | Off 52-week high: -9.2% | Above 52-week low: +221.9%

• MTSI is one of the strongest names inside the semiconductor complex, and semiconductors remain the strongest group in the market. XSD has been a clear leadership ETF, and since its April continuation breakout, the semiconductor complex has rallied roughly 85%.

• MTSI has mirrored that move, but with higher average daily range, which makes it more volatile and potentially more rewarding when the setup is right.

• The stock pulled back into its 10-week EMA on Monday and was bought aggressively. Yesterday, it formed an inside day, which gives the setup a cleaner structure. A pullback toward the 50-day EMA is possible, but from our perspective it is not the base case.

• We would be looking for exposure almost immediately. The reason is simple: MTSI has the profile we want. It is a leader inside the leading group, it has a 99 relative strength rating versus the SPX, it traded on 165% relative volume yesterday, and it is up roughly 221% over the last 52 weeks.

• The trade is not about buying weakness for the sake of it. It is about buying a high-relative-strength leader after a controlled pullback into trend support, while the broader semiconductor group is still defending its own major moving averages.