OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Macro

• NVDA’s blowout beat instantly flipped global risk sentiment, reigniting the entire AI/semis complex and reversing last week’s valuation-driven unwind.

• September jobs finally printed 119k vs ~50k expected, but the bigger issue is the ongoing data blackout: November NFP won’t arrive until Dec 16, leaving the Fed blind into FOMC.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

• NVDA gap lifts QQQ above $610, its first test above declining 10/20-day EMAs in 10 sessions — but the trend only changes if we close strong, not open strong.

• Above $610 sits a volume vacuum into $620–625, but the November pattern of strong opens → weak closes still dominates.

S&P 400 Midcap (MDY)

• MDY bounces into $582, the exact declining 20-day EMA + heavy supply zone — volume remains weak on the recovery.

• Weekly structure still shows lower highs and last week’s breakdown under $590 hasn’t been negated.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

• Still the weakest major index: three weeks of breakdown on rising volume and firmly below all key weekly EMAs.

• Yesterday’s rejection at $236–237 confirms supply; any NVDA-driven gap-up is likely sold unless the close shows a real character shift.

Focused Stock: GRAL

• GRAL is one of the strongest names in the Health Tech leadership group, with a tight 5-week contraction forming above all rising MAs.

• Relative strength (RS 99) and no overhead resistance above $92 make this one of the few clean Stage 2 setups in the market.

MARKET ANALYSIS
NVDA Reignited the AI Trade

• Nvidia’s blowout quarter shifted global sentiment almost instantly as we saw revenue + guidance came in meaningfully above the high end, with Jensen Huang flat-out rejecting AI bubble concerns and saying Blackwell demand is “off the charts.”

• This removed the near-term valuation fear that triggered the ~$3T global tech unwind last week.

• Futures immediately repriced higher: Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P +1.3%, Nikkei +2.6%, Taiwan +3.2%.

• Every critical node in the AI supply chain followed through: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, AVGO all bid aggressively.

• The delayed September jobs report finally prints today after the government shutdown. The market’s expectation heading in: ~50k jobs. Actual: 119k, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4%.

• Despite the stronger print, the market cares more about the timing of the next data release and it appears the November jobs report will not be published until Dec 16, after the FOMC which is leaving the Fed essentially flying blind into the final meeting of the year.

• Fed minutes showed deep internal disagreement as some members are worried about slowing labor, others more concerned inflation might re-accelerate.

• As a result, rate-cut odds for December collapsed from ~50% → 33% in 24 hours. The market is reading this as the Fed has every excuse to stay on hold.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 25.49% | % over 50 EMA: 35.29% | % over 200 EMA: 49.01%

• Another exhaustion test at the 50-day EMA failed yesterday. The QQQ pushed into the declining 50-day around $606 for a second consecutive session and was sold immediately which is fully consistent with the November pattern where every attempt to reclaim a declining major MA has been faded on volume.

• Today’s open shifts the short-term picture, but not the regime (yet) as NVDA strength is giving QQQ a gap above $610, which matters because:

  • It’s the first attempt in 10 sessions to trade convincingly above the declining 10-day and 20-day EMAs.

  • The visible range volume profile (VRVP) shows a notable volume vacuum above $610–$612, meaning if buyers can establish control above this shelf, continuation toward $620–$625 can happen quickly.

• The dominant tape pattern remains: strong opens, weak closes. The QQQ has printed the same structure with early strength into declining MAs → systematic selling from the same players → failed closes. Nothing about today’s move invalidates that without evidence at the close.

• Given the context reactive gap, NVDA-driven flow, repeated distribution pattern, the highest-probability approach is restraint off the open and decision-making based on the close, not the first 30 minutes.

• “Better to be out and want in than in and want out” applies perfectly here.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 28.25% | % over 50 EMA: 30.75% | % over 200 EMA: 46.75%

• MDY is responding to the NVDA-driven gap in the same way the broader mid-cap complex has been trading lately by being very much reactive and not initiative.

• We’re now pushing back through all of this week’s price action and reclaiming the prior demand block up into $582, which is exactly where the declining 20-day EMA and overhead supply begin to cluster.

• This is happening with noticeably weak buy-side volume across the last two green sessions which is important as when a multi-week decline produces a reflexive bounce with fading volume, it tells you the move is more mechanical than conviction-led.

• The VRVP on the daily shows heavy overhead supply from $582 → $592, and today’s open drops us directly into that zone. If you compare that to the QQQ analysis above, there is essentially no “clean air” above in the MDY, it’s an inventory zone that has rejected price multiple times in the past month.

• Last week’s low tagged the 200-day EMA almost to the dollar and at the same location as the 50-week EMA, and that’s where demand finally stepped in.

• This week’s bounce is simply a retest of the declining 20-week EMA, which now sits right at $582 and is the first real technical battle line for mid-caps.

• Despite the bounce, weekly volume remains muted on the recovery attempt. Contrast that with the aggressive sell volume through early November it’s clear the imbalance is still on the sell side.

• The broader weekly structure remains range-bound with a series of lower highs, and the breakdown under $590 last week still has not been negated.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 28.40% | % over 50 EMA: 31.53% | % over 200 EMA: 47.66%

• The weekly chart is still one of the ugliest across all major indices and we now have three confirmed weeks of breakdown on rising relative volume, and this current week is tracking the same way so far.

• Rising volume during a breakdown is never constructive as it confirms distribution as we see the price remains firmly below the 10- and 20-week EMAs, and we’re sitting underneath a thick band of supply that has been building since late September.

• On the daily chart, the pattern is equally weak as each breakdown has been happening on increasing volume (again showing more participation or fuel on the way down).

• Yesterday produced another failed attempt to reclaim the $236–$237 supply zone, rejecting immediately and closing near the low and that zone continues to be a brick wall and is now strengthening as a supply shelf.

• Just like MDY, IWM is getting dragged higher this morning purely on sympathy to NVDA’s blowout print. There is no technical edge long or short here.

• Longs: fighting a downtrend with heavy supply overhead.

• Shorts: fighting a gap-up open with no confirmation yet.

• The higher-probability outcome is that this morning’s gap gets sold into unless we see a complete character shift into the close, and nothing in the last three weeks suggests that shift is emerging.

FOCUSED STOCK
GRAL: Go Where The Momentum Goes

ADR%: 9.25% | Off 52-week high: -14.6% | Above 52-week low: +547.8%

• Health Technology remains the true leadership group, with XBI, XPH, and XLV all holding their trends far better than the major indices and GRAL is one of the cleanest names in that entire complex.

• GRAL (GRAIL Inc.) is a commercial-stage medical diagnostics company focused on multi-cancer early detection, using genomics + software + ML to identify deadly cancers at early stages.

• GRAL spent almost a full year building a base around the $40 zone, finally breaking out in September with conviction.

• Since then, price has formed a tight 5-week contraction, pulling into its 120-week EMA with volume drying up- a secondary contraction within a new Stage 2 advance.

• This week’s candle is the first meaningful attempt to turn back up from that moving average.

• Price is holding all rising MAs (10/20/50), respecting demand repeatedly near $85–87.

• Visible Range Volume Profile shows no real resistance overhead (from a break over $92).

• GRAL also has relative strength in a tape where many stocks cannot hold their weekly MAs (99 vs the SPX).