OVERVIEW
Grinding Higher, Internals Stay Bullish

🟢 Risk-On: QQQ makes new highs. Midcaps and small caps digest recent breakouts constructively.

🕰️ Short Week, Big Data: Markets close early Thursday (1 p.m. ET) and are shut Friday. June jobs report hits Thursday- a key data point for Q3 rate cut odds.

📊 Strength Broadening: Breakouts and follow-through across tech, financials, and discretionary. Participation is expanding beneath the surface.

🧠 Focus on Setups: Don’t chase late just because it’s a bull market. Let new bases build as capital rotates and fresh leadership emerges.

MARKET ANALYSIS
The Bull Keeps Charging

The market is doing what strong tape does best- pushing to new highs while ignoring every narrative meant to derail it. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just closed last week at all-time highs, with the S&P up 3.5 percent and the Nasdaq rallying over 4 percent. If that is not confirmation of trend strength, what is?

This is not random. The narrative beneath the surface has shifted:

• Rate cut optimism is rising again. Powell has signaled the door is open for action sooner rather than later, and the bond market is responding accordingly.

• Tariff fears have cooled off for now, with Trump showing signs of extending the current pause ahead of the July 9 deadline. That removes a major near-term risk from the board.

This week is short due to the July Fourth holiday, but still critical. Thursday brings the June jobs report, and we will also get updates on job openings, wage data, manufacturing and services activity, all of which shape the inflation and rate policy path.

But zoom out and the bigger picture is clear. Price is strong. The trend is intact. Every dip is being bought, and the leading stocks in the market continue to grind higher with zero signs of real distribution.

That is what a bull market looks like. Headlines will come and go- your job is to listen to price, not noise.

Nasdaq

There is not much new to say about QQQ’s price as it is printing new all-time highs nearly every session. This is the clear leadership group in the market, and the momentum is undeniable.

But here is where it gets interesting. While price keeps trending higher in a near-vertical line, we are not seeing a meaningful surge in relative volume. That matters. In strong breakouts, we ideally want to see volume expanding with price as it confirms institutional demand and healthy participation.

Without that volume confirmation, extended price runs become more vulnerable to pullbacks. It does not mean a breakdown is imminent- far from it- but it does increase the odds that any breakout you chase in a QQQ name could fail if the index takes even one normal step back.

The takeaway: this is still a strong tape, but your edge here is in entries with context, tight patterns near support, not momentum extensions far from the base. Let the big moves come to you.

S&P 400 Midcap

MDY printed a red hammer candle yesterday on high relative volume, and while that might look like a warning sign at first glance, the structure tells a different story.

The intraday dip down toward the reclaimed Point of Control (POC) was met with strong demand. Buyers stepped in aggressively to prevent further downside, and the hammer candle reflects that. When you combine this with the dense volume cluster on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), it suggests we are seeing healthy price discovery and strong support in this zone.

In fact, this is exactly the kind of action we want to see from a market segment trying to break higher:

• A pullback into key structure

• Demand stepping in,

• Volume confirming interest.

We remain structurally bullish on MDY, and are actively looking for exposure here, even more than in the QQQ, where we already have heavy portfolio allocation. Midcaps are showing early-stage leadership and offering better risk-reward right now.

Russell 2000

IWM had a much more subdued session yesterday, but that’s not a red flag. Price pushed into its Point of Control (POC) zone, and while it didn’t break through decisively, it printed an inside day with lower relative volume. That’s classic digestion, not rejection.

This remains a constructive setup. IWM is still sitting on top of a textbook inverse head and shoulders base- the same bear market bottom pattern that started forming back in April. Yes, small caps have been choppier than QQQ and MDY lately, but they’re still in the early stages of a potential Stage 2 rally.

This is important because small caps live at the bottom of the risk curve, they tend to move with more velocity when things align. That volatility is your edge, as long as you know how to manage it.

Bottom line: don’t ignore IWM. This segment may be lagging slightly, but it’s still very much in play, and the reward potential here is significant.

FOCUSED STOCK
OPRA: Another Inverse Head & Shoulders

OPRA is shaping up as one of the most promising early-stage tech setups on our radar. The chart is clean with an inverse head and shoulders base is forming with price now tightening just beneath a key breakout level.

Most importantly, the stock has reclaimed and held its Point of Control (POC), which has acted as a consistent demand zone in recent sessions. This is classic Stage 2 launch behavior with strong demand meeting declining supply.

Volume confirms the story. Relative volume has surged throughout June, and yesterday’s push took price directly into the final dense volume shelf on the VRVP. Once that clears, there’s very little overhead resistance.

Add to this the fundamental picture: OPRA is posting exceptional revenue growth, giving this breakout real fuel.

With tech still leading, OPRA looks ready to join the next wave of momentum leaders.

FOCUSED SECTOR
XLF: Financials Breaking Out with Power

Financials have quietly become one of the most impressive sectors on the board. Since the April capitulation washout, we’ve seen a sharp reversal, and names like DAVE and HOOD, which we were early on, have delivered huge returns.

Now the broader group is confirming. XLF broke out of a multi-month base on Friday, and that strength continued into Monday. The breakout came on rising relative volume, which is exactly what you want to see when price clears a long-standing range. When demand accelerates and supply dries up, this type of move tends to stick.

📈 Pattern Recognition Matters

This is classic institutional accumulation with a major range gives way after weeks of tight price action, and volume starts ramping just before the breakout. Learn to spot this setup. It repeats.

Financials tend to be later-cycle outperformers, and with the market entering a broadening rally phase, this group could start to take leadership alongside tech and consumer cyclicals.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “I struggle with taking profits too early and not letting trades play out. What should I do?”

This is one of the most common and costly problems traders face. And the fix requires tackling both your system and your psychology.

Step 1: Who Are You as a Trader?

If you identify as a swing trader, particularly one who follows momentum and trends like we do, your job is not to pick tops. It is to catch the bulk of a directional move. That means holding winners long enough to let them become meaningful contributors to your overall equity curve.

But if you are cutting trades the moment you see green, you are operating like a scalper, not a trend trader. That mismatch creates internal conflict. You are committed to a trend-based strategy, but you are emotionally reacting like a scalper.

Fix that first. Commit to a system. Know your time frame. Know your goals.

Step 2: Stop Watching the P&L, Watch the Process

Most traders cut trades early because they are fixated on their P&L, not the chart. This is why we anchor to a process and we only describe trades in terms of risk multiples (R), not $ amount.

In our strategy, we use the rising 10 day and 20 day EMAs on the daily chart as our trailing guideposts. If price holds those EMAs and we are in a confirmed trend, we let the trade work. That is the plan. We have done this thousands of times, live and in backtests, and we have learned to trust the math.

This is what allows us to stay calm. We are not reacting to noise. We are responding to structure.

Step 3: Understand the Math

Here is the cold reality: if your system has a 35 to 45 percent win rate, which is typical for trend traders, and you cut winners too early, you will destroy your edge. Your losers will be larger than your winners. That is how promising traders flatline their accounts.

You need your winners to run because that is what funds your losers. Without a few outsized gains, the system breaks.

Step 4: Add Structure to Exits

We recommend having a two-tiered exit system:

• Tier 1: Scale partial profits into strength at predetermined points, like 2R or in the first 3-5 day momentum burst.

• Tier 2: Hold the rest using your trailing guide, such as the 10 or 20 day EMA.

This way, you satisfy the impulse to lock something in but still give your core position room to grow.

Final Note:

If you are taking profits too early, it usually means you do not trust your process. And if you do not trust your process, you have not done enough work on it. Go back. Backtest it. Trade it with paper or small size. Study what happens when you follow your rules to the letter.

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