OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

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MARKET ANALYSIS
AI Strength vs Trade Friction

• Futures higher for a second day as earnings and AI momentum offset renewed U.S.–China trade tension.

• TSMC reported a 39% profit surge and raised 2025 growth to the mid-30% range, reaffirming strength in the AI hardware cycle.

• Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and Salesforce all trading higher premarket on strong guidance and analyst upgrades.

• Financials remain solid: JPM, Citi, and Wells Fargo continue to beat on earnings and credit quality, anchoring the market.

• Trade tensions persist: Trump’s tariff threats and China’s counter-sanctions add headline risk but haven’t derailed price action yet.

• Government shutdown hits week three, freezing key economic data and adding uncertainty to labor and inflation visibility.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 43.56% | % over 50 EMA: 51.48% | % over 200 EMA: 56.43%

• The breakout above $600 which we flagged in yesterday’s report, has now confirmed with three consecutive intraday holds around the $598–$600 zone.

• This level aligns perfectly with a dense volume shelf on the visible range profile, showing heavy prior positioning that is now acting as demand.

• The next key level is the Point of Control (POC) near $608, where sellers have previously dominated and that’s the next real test for continuation.

• This move is being driven primarily by large-cap tech gap-ups (Nvidia, Broadcom, Salesforce, Micron), adding fuel to the rebound.

• Structurally, this is a very constructive development: buyers defended a major inflection point and turned prior resistance into support which is the first clean bullish signal in over a week.

• We are seeing strength in MSFT, GOOG, NVDA and TSLA all holding their key levels suggesting we are very likely to have seen a near term bottom- assuming we see follow through today and these tech giants not fade their move.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 38.40% | % over 50 EMA: 40.89% | % over 200 EMA: 56.35%

• Yesterday’s volume came in light, at just over 55% of Tuesday’s relative volume, suggesting the rebound lacked full participation, but the technical context matters more here as the rejection at highs was weak too.

• On the daily chart, MDY continues to base around the $595 POC, a level that has acted as structural demand since mid-August.

• This zone has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure, marking it as one of the most important short-term balance areas in the entire market.

• Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, the picture turns far more constructive as price is bouncing cleanly off the rising 20-week EMA, a level that has been defended three times since April 2025 in this intermediate uptrend.

• If the current weekly candle closes strong (greater volume that last week + overtaking prior candle highs), we could see a bullish engulfing pattern form on the week, signaling a valid trend support and a very likely follow through to new relative highs.

• On the visible range volume profile (VRVP), note how volume drops off sharply above $604, this creates an air pocket where price could accelerate higher if buyers press through that level.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 44.09% | % over 50 EMA: 47.70% | % over 200 EMA: 58.29%

• The rotation into small caps that we’ve been flagging over the past few reports now appears fully validated as the IWM continues to show the cleanest structure across both daily and weekly timeframes (and the strongest breadth; see above).

• Yesterday’s doji candle initially signaled exhaustion, but buyers stepped in right on cue at the $247–$248 zone which is the same level that acted as supply resistance in early October and has now flipped into demand.

• This character change - where prior resistance becomes support is a very important confirmation of underlying strength and tells us the short term trend has an upward bias.

• On the weekly chart, IWM still holds above its key short-term EMAs and is pressing toward fresh highs, looking structurally healthier than both the Nasdaq and Midcaps.

FOCUSED STOCK
EGO: We’re Still Pushing Precious Metals

ADR%: 3.43% | Off 52-week high: -2.7% | Above 52-week low: +119.6%

• Following our strong calls on ORLA and AGI, Eldorado Gold (EGO) is now emerging as the next clean setup in the gold miners’ rotation.

• Yesterday’s breakout attempt stalled briefly, but this morning’s action confirms a clear move through overhanging supply on the visible range volume profile (VRVP)

• Price has reclaimed the $29 zone, establishing itself firmly above short-term EMAs with constructive volume follow-through.

• The consolidation over the past week served as an efficient volatility contraction, compressing energy right below resistance and now releasing with strength.

• Given how well recent gold miner entries have performed, EGO fits the same efficiency profile: tight risk, high reward, and aligned with the ongoing Stage 2 advance in the broader gold complex.

• Note: be cautious blindly buying a gap up on the open, we would wait for either a 5-min opening range high (ORH) breakout or a pullback intraday to fill the gap.

FOCUSED GROUP
XBI: A Major Stage 2 Power Trend

• The Biotech sector (XBI) remains one of the market’s clearest Stage 2 power trends, breaking out yesterday on strong relative volume and continuing its near-flawless rhythm of higher highs and higher lows since August.

• The 10-day EMA has acted as precise dynamic demand through every touchpoint of this uptrend, confirming consistent institutional sponsorship and healthy rotational flow into high-beta growth.

• Biotech often represents the most speculative corner of the market as these names can ignore broader macro conditions for long stretches when risk appetite is elevated.

• However, traders must remain very careful: many biotech stocks move on binary catalysts (trial data, FDA updates, etc.), which can lead to sharp gap-down risk.

• This group is perfect for short-duration momentum bursts, not long-term position trades, as most names are story-driven rather than earnings-driven.

• Historically, when XBI sustains above its breakout zone (now $104–$105), it signals a broad risk-on environment, with speculative money leading before broader participation follows.