OVERVIEW
🟨 Moderate Risk-On

• All Eyes on Powell: Jackson Hole today is the event. Futures have repriced the probability of a September rate cut from 99% (two weeks ago) → 85% (earlier this week) → ~69% now. That repricing explains the recent weakness in growth and the rotation into defensives, metals, and small caps.

• Growth / Tech: The clear laggards. QQQ broke below its 20-EMA on heavy volume, confirming sellers are in control. Weekly chart is tracing a broadening wedge — a late-stage topping pattern.

• Midcaps: Choppy, indecisive, stuck in sideways consolidation. Hovering near POC ($582), no clean trend.

• Small Caps: The relative leaders. Russell 2000 flipped July resistance at $226 into support. This is the healthiest structural setup of the three.

• Rotation: Precious metals (miners) and defensives (staples, healthcare) continue to absorb flows as capital seeks stability. Industrials (XLI) coiling tightly — resolution likely soon.

• Stock in Focus: NTRA — multi-month base + group strength in healthcare.

• Group in Focus: XLI — coiling at POC; watching for either H&S breakdown or bullish expansion post-Jackson.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Todays Close Is What Matters

This morning’s tape is quiet because everyone is waiting for Powell. His Jackson Hole remarks today are the centerpiece, and markets are essentially in a holding pattern until he speaks.

Two weeks ago, futures were pricing a 99% probability of a September rate cut. Earlier this week that probability slipped to 85%, and as of this morning sits closer to 69%. That repricing alone explains why growth sectors have sold off and why capital has rotated into defensives, small caps, and metals.

The rotation context matters:

• Growth/Tech: Breaking down as higher rates stay on the table.

• Precious Metals: Gold and silver miners are emerging as the clearest leaders, holding structural breakouts even as growth weakens.

• Small Caps & Value: Benefiting from rate cut speculation, though still tethered to Powell’s tone.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 38.61% | % over 50 EMA: 43.56% | % over 200 EMA: 60.39%

Tech and megacap growth remain the clear laggards in this tape, and the weakness is most visible in the QQQ.

On the daily chart, QQQ broke down hard on high relative volume 2 days ago, pressing directly below the 20-EMA and we got rejected on this level yesterday on the intraday test demonstrating continued weakness.

Stepping back, QQQ is beginning to trace out an ascending broadening wedge (forming since mid-June 2025). This pattern is something you often see in a late-stage bull behavior: swings get wider, volatility increases, and momentum quietly erodes.

Why this wedge matters (Bulkowski data, 690 cases):

• Downside breakouts succeed ~69% of the time, with an average decline of -12%.

• Upside breakouts are less reliable, hitting targets only ~61% of the time, with an average rise of +41%.

• Throwbacks/pullbacks occur 60–70% of the time, meaning breakouts often retest old levels before resolving.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 56.75% | % over 50 EMA: 58.25% | % over 200 EMA: 53.75%

Midcaps broke below their 10/20-EMA cluster yesterday after an intraday rejection attempt to reclaim the POC (~$582). As of this morning, price is still hovering around that level.

Structurally, the setup is messy:

• We’re in a choppy sideways consolidation where technical signals lack clarity.

• Short-term breadth is holding up better than the Nasdaq — likely a reflection of expected September rate cuts, which would benefit mid-cap businesses more directly.

• Still, the tape offers no clean trend for either longs or shorts here.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 61.13% | % over 50 EMA: 57.15% | % over 200 EMA: 51.29%

The Russell 2000 is the only major index that actually showed an uptick in breadth yesterday, with more stocks reclaiming their 20-EMA. That relative strength stands out given the weakness in both Nasdaq and Midcaps.

Technically, IWM offered very clean pullback entries on both Wednesday and Thursday as it defended its 20-EMA. Importantly, this level also aligns with the prior July resistance zone (~$226), which has now flipped to support — a clear behavioral change in market structure.

We remain most constructive on small caps relative to the other cap groups. The last two sessions confirmed that demand is willing to step in where it matters.

📌 Trading Implication:
The setup is bullish relative to peers, but intraday volatility remains elevated. This is still an environment better suited for 1–3 day tactical trades rather than deep conviction swing positions. Watch today’s closing behavior for confirmation before leaning harder on the long side.

FOCUSED STOCK
NTRA: A New Stage 2 Coming?

ADR%: 3.91% | Off 52-week high: -11.5% | Above 52-week low: +46.5%

Healthcare has been one of the most consistent sources of relative strength this quarter, led first by pharmaceuticals (XLV, XPH), but we’re now seeing breadth expand into biotech and general medical names. That’s where NTRA stands out.

🔎 Technical Context:

• Trading sideways since Nov 2024, building a broad multi-month base.

• Two clear higher-low pivots (Apr 2025, Jul 2025), tightening the range and signaling volatility contraction.

• This week, price found support directly at the Point of Control (POC) near ~$158.

📌 Why It Matters:

• Healthcare is increasingly attracting flows as growth and high-beta unwind.

• NTRA’s long base structure + group strength make it one of the most attractive watchlist candidates in the space.

FOCUSED GROUP
XLI: Industrials Testing the Line

The industrials sector is coiling in a very tight consolidation right along the rising 10/20-EMAs, with price hugging the Point of Control (POC) shelf near ~$150. This 3-week volatility contraction, paired with steadily declining relative volume, is setting up for resolution.

Bearish Setup: Late July’s high-volume selloff carved the pole of what now resembles a bear flag. Layer on the potential head-and-shoulders top forming, and the setup projects a -1.5% measured move lower into the rising 50-EMA (~$148.5).

Bullish Counter: Tight price + declining volume can also precede expansion in either direction. If XLI can reclaim momentum and build above $151.60 with volume confirmation, it would negate the H&S risk and instead reassert industrials as a structural leader.

This can turn into a multi week swing higher especially if we do see this come about post the Jackson meeting today and we get follow through post this event.