OVERVIEW
Bulls Still Own the Tape

🟢 Risk-On: Across large, mid, and small caps, we’re seeing textbook consolidation behavior — low-volume pullbacks into rising EMAs and breakouts over major supply. The trend remains up, and there’s no sign of panic under the hood.

🔍 Rotation & Confirmation: Small caps (IWM) have broken out of a 6-month downtrend and are testing post-breakout support. Midcaps (MDY) are flagging just under resistance. Tech (QQQ, XLK) continues to lead with a shallow cup-and-handle pushing into all-time highs.

📈 What to Do Now: Ignore the macro noise. The setups are clean, participation is still broad, and momentum is asserting itself across key sectors. Patience is key — don’t chase breakouts, but be ready to act as follow-through confirms strength.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Why Relative Volume Is Key

Private payrolls came in well below expectations at +37,000 vs. 110,000 forecast — the weakest ADP print since early 2023 — triggering renewed concerns about labor market softness. But the reaction was muted, with equities largely shrugging it off after initial weakness.

🧠 What Actually Matters:
Markets remain supported by strong Q1 earnings, robust tech leadership, and the absence of any genuine macro shock. The Trump tariff noise continues in the background, but it’s not moving price in any meaningful way.

📌 Bottom Line:
We’re still in a low-volatility, rotation-driven tape. Until price tells us otherwise, treat the macro chatter as entertainment, not trading signal. Focus on what matters: trend, volume, and leadership.

Nasdaq

Large-cap tech stocks — the core of the Nasdaq — pushed further into the upper range of their shallow cup-and-handle formation and are now just inches away from all-time highs.

🔍 Volume Divergence Worth Noting:
Over the last three sessions, we’ve seen a modest decline in relative volume on this drift higher. That’s not necessarily bearish — but it is a signal to monitor. Ideally, we’d prefer to see a surge in volume accompanying a breakout to confirm strong participation.

✅ The Key Point:
This remains the strongest index in the market. Price action is constructive, structure is bullish, and leading names are still showing strength as they keep finding support right where they need too (rising 10/20 EMAs).

S&P 400 Midcap

Midcaps pushed directly into their long-standing descending resistance from December 2024 — right at the $560 zone, which also marks a dense overhead supply cluster per the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP).

🧩 What stands out?
Despite testing such a key level, yesterday’s session came on extremely low relative volume. That’s a quietly bullish signal — suggesting no aggressive selling interest from supply overhead and buyers absorbing what little resistance remains.

🔍 Why it matters:

• Low relative volume at resistance often indicates sellers are exhausted or absent.

• If this was real supply pressure, volume would have spiked and price would have rejected harder.

• Instead, we’re seeing tight consolidation at the top of the range — classic pre-breakout behavior.

Russell 2000

The small caps are pressing right into their key supply zone at $210 — sitting comfortably above their Point of Control (POC) and holding the right shoulder of a textbook inverse head & shoulders formation.

🔎 What we’re seeing:

• The structure is bullish: no breakdowns, no volume spikes on weakness, no red flags.

• Yesterday’s pullback? Low relative volume — classic constructive digestion after a multi-session run.

• According to the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), there’s minimal overhead supply until ~$220, meaning any breakout could accelerate quickly.

📈 Key Level: $210
That’s the neckline. A clean move above this zone on volume would confirm the pattern and open the door to a new leg higher.

📊 Market Structure: A Historic Breadth Shift May Be Unfolding

Both small caps (IWM) and midcaps (MDY) are carving out inverse head and shoulders formations — widely regarded as one of the most statistically robust bottoming structures in technical analysis.

Here’s why this matters:

• 80–85% of inverse H&S patterns resolve higher.

• 98% of breakouts exit bullishly once the neckline is breached.

• 74% reach their measured move targets post-breakout.

• 52% retest the neckline — not failure, just structure confirming.

💡 This isn’t just about patterns — it’s about participation. These formations are developing across indices long left behind in the AI-led rally. The fact that small and midcaps — which represent risk appetite and domestic economic confidence — are attempting structural reversals is not just technical trivia. It’s the market sending a message: leadership may be broadening.

⏱️ What to Watch:

• Volume: True reversals are driven by expanding volume and institutional conviction.

• Neckline Breaks: Both IWM and MDY are sitting just below critical resistance that’s defined the bear market since Q4 2024.

• Behavior on Retests: Don’t panic on a pullback — a clean retest is a feature, not a bug.

🔭 Big Picture: A confirmed breakout in IWM or MDY could trigger a rotational domino effect across sectors. That’s what healthy bull markets are built on — not narrow leadership, but expansion.

This is the kind of setup that marks the transition from hope to conviction. It’s not about predicting — it’s about recognizing when the structure aligns with behavior. That’s where the edge lives.

FOCUSED STOCK
AFRM: Affirm Holdings, Inc.

💵 Sector Tailwind: Financials (XLF, RSPF) are breaking higher, and AFRM is one of the top relative strength names in the group.

🔍 Key Level: The $56 resistance level has now been tested three separate times — each time sellers showed up. But this time looks different: AFRM is pressing into this zone with strong momentum and no major overhead supply on the VRVP.

📈 Relative Highs: AFRM is printing new relative highs just below the breakout, which is exactly the behavior we want to see. This shows buyers are willing to step in earlier — a classic sign of accumulation.

🚀 What We’re Watching: If AFRM clears $56 on strong relative volume, this becomes a textbook early Stage 2 breakout in one of the best-performing sectors right now.

FOCUSED GROUP
XSD: Semiconductor

After spending months stuck beneath key resistance, the semiconductor group has officially broken back above its declining 200-day EMA. That alone is a major character shift — this is no longer a downtrend.

🔍 Overhead Supply Being Absorbed
The $242 level has been a key supply zone for months. Price is now testing that region, and while we may see some short-term resistance, early signs suggest buyers are stepping up.

⚙️ NVDA Leading the Charge

This move is being powered in large part by NVDA, which has reclaimed leadership and once again become the largest stock on the planet by market cap. That’s meaningful — the biggest names lead the biggest moves. NVDA did also break over its point of control (POC) recently and out of its cup and handle formation.

🧠 What to Watch
Watch for consolidation or a shallow pullback near the $242 zone. If SMH can digest this move and hold above the 200-day, it opens the door for a broader tech leg higher.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “If I get stopped out on a breakout, should I just remove that stock from my watchlist?”
A: Not automatically — because stops are information, not rejection.

Getting stopped out doesn’t mean the trade was “wrong.” It means the timing wasn’t optimal — or the market environment didn’t support follow-through at that moment. But whether a stock stays on your list depends on this one core question:

Has the underlying structure been invalidated, or is it still intact?

🔍 Here’s how we think about it:

→ ❌ If the stock breaks down beneath the base, loses key EMAs, and shows distribution volume — it’s likely a failed pattern. Move on.

→ 🔄 But if the stock pulls back into support, holds above the prior base or moving averages, and volume remains controlled — you’re looking at a potential reset, not a failure. These “second mouse” setups often offer better reward-to-risk.

💡 Pro Tip: When you get stopped out, zoom out.

Ask: “Was this a bad trade — or just a test of commitment?” Many of our biggest winners come from re-entries after a failed breakout… because the structure remained intact, and the setup improved.

This is what separates reactive traders from systematic ones. The goal isn’t to avoid losses — it’s to interpret feedback and stay objective.

At Swingly PRO., we map these setups daily — not just the breakout, but the structural resets that often lead to higher-probability second entries. Want to see how we track those? That’s the edge we deliver every morning.