MARKET ANALYSIS
What You Need To Know

• Stock futures rise: U.S. stock futures are up this morning, driven by expectations for key economic data and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East.

• Oil prices rise: Crude prices continue to climb amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with President Trump’s upcoming decision on military action potentially impacting the oil market.

• PCE inflation data in focus: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is set to release, with the headline number expected to rise by 2.8% year-over-year. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase by 3%, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve.

• Fed policy uncertainty: The outlook for future Fed rate cuts remains unclear, as inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target. Some policymakers want more evidence of cooling price pressures before supporting additional cuts.

• Earnings reports: Nvidia’s new push into CPU technology is drawing attention as the company expands its role in the data center sector. Opendoor, despite posting a quarterly loss, reported a significant 46% rise in home acquisitions, highlighting growth despite weak earnings guidance.

• Mixed economic data: U.S. jobless claims came in lower than expected, signaling labor market stability, while the trade deficit saw an unexpected jump, adding uncertainty to near-term macro outlooks.

• Geopolitical tensions weigh: Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions continue to add a layer of uncertainty to market sentiment, particularly in the energy sector. The impact of rising oil prices on consumer spending and broader market sentiment remains a key focus.

Nasdaq

48.51%: over 20 EMA | 48.51%: over 50 EMA | 51.48%: over 200 EMA

• The QQQ is now compressing directly beneath the 609 resistance zone, which aligns almost perfectly with the declining 20-week EMA near 608.

• That level has now rejected price for two consecutive weeks, which keeps the intermediate trend in a “repair and compress” phase rather than a confirmed re-acceleration phase.

• What makes this more interesting than prior tests is the quality of the contraction. Price is tightening just beneath resistance, and relative volume has steadily declined throughout the recent bounce.

• That combination of tightening range and declining participation is typically what you want to see if a market is preparing for expansion rather than distribution.

• At the same time, we should not ignore geometry. The descending broadening wedge that has defined the last 22 sessions still technically allows for one more downside sweep.

• The rising 200-day EMA near 583.66 remains the larger structural magnet if support fails, and that would represent roughly a 3% downside impulse from current levels.

• However, the 595–596 area has now held for 14 consecutive trading sessions. That level was defended on February 5 and again on February 17, and the visible range volume profile shows a near 2:1 imbalance in favor of buyers at that zone.

• Descending broadening wedges historically resolve to the upside a high percentage of the time, but they require compression near resistance before resolution. That compression is now forming.

• The constructive scenario is a continued hold above 595 followed by a push through 609. The failure scenario is a break of 595 that opens the door toward the 200-day EMA. Until one of those triggers occurs, this remains a coiled structure rather than a confirmed breakout.

• The equal-weighted NASDAQ continues to send a more stable signal than the cap-weighted index, which matters because it reflects the behavior of the “average” stock rather than mega-cap concentration.

• QQQE has now established 14 consecutive days of higher lows since the February 5 pivot, and it continues to hold above its 20-week EMA. That is materially stronger behavior than what we are seeing in QQQ itself.

• Yesterday’s session was particularly important. Price briefly attempted to break down beneath the 20-week EMA before reversing sharply higher on 240% relative volume.

• That kind of high-participation reversal at intermediate support is rarely trivial; it typically reflects real money defending the level.

• There is still clear overhead supply near 103.80, and that supply has not yet been absorbed.

• If QQQ experiences one more volatility pulse lower, QQQE could see sympathetic pressure toward the 100–101 zone, which aligns with prior support from early February.

S&P 400 Midcap

62.81%: over 20 EMA | 67.08%: over 50 EMA | 68.34%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps remain structurally impressive in the bigger picture. They are still operating within a Stage 2 advance that began with the November 17, 2025 Morning Star reversal, and the rising moving average spine continues to act as dynamic support.

• Short term, however, there are signs that the tape is getting crowded.

  MDY is forming a two-week high-tight flag above its 10-day EMA, and price remains roughly 2.5% extended above its 10-week EMA. That extension is not extreme, but it reduces immediate upside asymmetry.

• Volume behavior is the more nuanced concern. We have seen expanding relative volume inside what is supposed to be a consolidation phase.

• Yesterday printed one of the highest relative volume readings of the recent bounce, yet price failed to break decisively through overhead supply near 658–660. When volume expands but price does not progress, it tells you supply is still active.

• Breadth readings are also elevated relative to other segments. Once mid-cap breadth pushes into the low-70% range above the 20-EMA, the group often becomes short-term stretched and vulnerable to rotation rather than continuation.

• The most likely path here is continued two-way trade and further compression while the 10-week EMA catches up. In this type of environment, timing and positioning discipline matter more than directional conviction.

Russell 2000

48.39%: over 20 EMA | 55.24%: over 50 EMA | 63.55%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps continue to build one of the cleaner base structures in the market.

• IWM has now formed a 36-day base above its 10-week EMA, and every test of that moving average has produced a decisive bounce. That is classic Stage 2 continuation behavior.

• Yesterday’s session did show rejection near the 267 supply shelf, and the intraday volume profile revealed a clear selling imbalance at the highs, with red volume materially exceeding green. That confirms that overhead supply remains present.

• Importantly, the potential double-top structure is not confirmed. A double-top is only valid if price decisively breaks below the 50-day / 10-week EMA cluster near 257.50 and finds acceptance beneath it.

• Relative volume has begun contracting during this base formation, and breadth remains moderate rather than overheated. Only around half of small caps are above their 20-day EMA, which leaves room for expansion before the group becomes stretched.

• A controlled pullback toward 258 would not damage the structure. In fact, a well-defended retest of that zone would reinforce the base and strengthen the Stage 2 continuation thesis.

• From a growth rotation standpoint, small caps remain one of the more attractive segments because they are compressing without breaking.

FOCUSED STOCK
GOOG: A Perfect Pullback Long Candidate

ADR%: 2.89% | Off 52-week high: -13.3% | Above 52-week low: +113.4%

• Google is on the focus list because it is behaving like a former leader that is stabilizing at meaningful structural support.

• The stock has pulled back into its 20-week EMA and held that level on February 17. That moving average coincides with a demand zone that dates back to November 2025, creating confluence rather than isolated support.

• The most important element is participation. The retracement into this zone occurred on declining relative volume. There has been no aggressive expansion in selling pressure as price approached support.

• Technically, Google has also broken out of a descending tightening wedge, and it remains one of the stronger relative strength components within the Magnificent Seven.

• When a prior AI leader compresses at intermediate support while the broader NASDAQ is tightening beneath wedge resistance, that is where asymmetry begins to improve.

• This setup here is all about identifying where structural risk is definable and upside potential reopens if the index confirms (also where you can gain the maximum return on your risk from a R/R perspective).