OVERVIEW
What Will Powell Have To Say?

There is actually not too much to report his morning. The market’s focus today is on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Investors are watching closely for any hints on future interest rate cuts, especially after the Fed recently signaled that rates may stay higher for longer.

At the same time, we’ve seen new trade tariff threats from President Trump, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. While some fear these moves could push inflation higher and delay rate cuts, the market has actually been handling the uncertainty well. Stocks are no longer falling lower in response to Trump’s announcements, suggesting that investors may be getting used to his aggressive trade tactics and are focusing on broader market trends instead.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq has been holding up well over the past few sessions, and yesterday was by no means a bad day. The QQQ remained near the top of its three-day trading range, just below the key breakout zone at $530-$531, which has significant overhead supply. It also formed a low-volume inside day, signaling healthy consolidation rather than weakness.

Technically, we are still comfortably trading above the Point of Control (POC), which now sits below the rising 10 & 20-day EMAs. This reinforces the short-term uptrend, even though we remain range-bound within a multi-month sideways base.

To us, this is a sign of strength, not weakness. The market has faced multiple headwinds in recent weeks—DeepSeek targeting high-valuation tech stocks, Trump’s major trade policy shifts, and overall increased uncertainty—yet we’re still holding up and not breaking lower. This resilience suggests that the market is absorbing bad news well, which could be a constructive setup for a potential breakout.

S&P Midcap 400

The MDY (S&P MidCap 400 ETF) hasn’t been performing as well as the QQQ, but that’s not entirely surprising. The QQQ tracks tech stocks, which have been boosted by a strong earnings season, pushing it higher. In contrast, the MDY is more sensitive to interest rates and more vulnerable to shifts in sentiment, as mid-cap stocks generally don’t attract the same level of demand as the high-growth, resilient names in the QQQ.

That said, we don’t see major weakness in the medium term. While the short-term action has been choppy, and we are getting rejected at the POC with sideways-moving averages, there are still constructive signs. The ascending support level from mid-December lows is holding, and yesterday’s hammer candle indicates that buyers stepped up at a key demand zone, preventing a breakdown.

Russell 2000

The same story applies to small caps, but they’re actually holding up slightly better than their mid-cap counterparts. The sideways base and constructive support are more clearly visible on the Russell 2000, with the IWM showing a red hammer candle yesterday after attempting to break below the EMAs. This suggests that buyers stepped in to defend support. The big question today is whether we’ll see a push toward the overhead POC supply level, or if we’ll enter another cycle of testing the ascending support near $223.

DAILY FOCUS
Cut The Noise: Follow The Price & Volume

Right now, the media is flooding us with speculation and noise, especially around Trump’s latest tariff threats. Every headline, every pundit, and every hot take seems to be pushing a different narrative—some say tariffs will crash the market, others claim they’re just a negotiation tactic. With so much conflicting information, it’s almost impossible to figure out what to actually listen to without getting caught in the noise.

Here’s the hack:

There are only two absolute truths in the market—price and volume. Everything else is just opinion. Price action tells us how the market really feels, and volume confirms how serious that move is.

Today, we do have Jerome Powell speaking, so be cautious if you’re looking to put on risk beforehand—only God knows how the market will react. But by no means should you fall into the fear-mongering trap. The reality is, a lot of stocks are breaking out and performing well. Most S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have seen strong follow-through, especially if you’re focusing on market leaders. Just take a look at BBAI, PLTR, META, GRRR, AFRM—these names should have been popping up in your daily scans, and they’ve posted some major returns.

Despite all the uncertainty, we’re not seeing a major breakdown. In fact, key areas like QQQ, MDY, and IWM are holding up well. Instead of getting distracted by media speculation, focus on what’s actually happening on the charts—because at the end of the day, that’s what really matters.

WATCHLIST
Focus On These On A Strong Reaction

SLQT: SelectQuote Inc.

• SelectQuote (SLQT) just delivered a major earnings beat, showing strong improvements in its fundamentals. The company reported EPS of $0.30, far exceeding the expected $0.09—a 233% surprise. Revenue also came in strong at $481.07M, beating estimates by 14.27% and growing from $405.44M a year ago.

• Looking at its track record, SLQT has now surpassed EPS estimates twice and revenue estimates three times in the last four quarters. This kind of consistency is notable, especially for a stock that has been trading sideways for an extended period.

• Now, SLQT is gapping up over long-standing resistance, which could be a signal of a bigger shift in trend. When a stock with improving fundamentals breaks through a multi-year ceiling, it often attracts attention from traders and investors.

IONQ: IonQ, Inc.

• IONQ is another stock on our watchlist that is showing promising signs of tightening up along its weekly 10-EMA on low volume. This type of price action often signals that a breakout could be near. The key level we’re watching is $44.60—a move above this could trigger an entry.

• That said, we’re not looking to force anything. With Powell’s speech coming up, uncertainty is high, and the market could be volatile. We’ll wait for confirmation before making a move, ensuring the setup is strong enough to warrant exposure.