NEWS
Larry Fink Stunned by Tariffs as BlackRock Inflows Slow Sharply

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, reported a significant dip in new investor inflows this quarter, highlighting rising anxiety in global markets. The firm pulled in $84 billion from January to March - well below the $281 billion recorded in the previous quarter and short of Wall Street expectations. CEO Larry Fink attributes the slowdown to mounting client unease over economic uncertainty and policy volatility.

Much of the concern stems from U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, which Fink described as “beyond anything I could have imagined in my 49 years in finance.” While he doesn’t foresee systemic risks, the unease has already weighed on major asset managers, with BlackRock’s stock down 20% from earlier this year.

Despite the headwinds, BlackRock's assets under management climbed to $11.6 trillion. The firm’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) arm, iShares, attracted $107 billion, while retail and alternative investments also posted gains. However, institutional clients pulled $46 billion from index-linked products, contributing to the overall inflow decline.

Profit dipped 4% year-over-year to $1.5 billion due to costs tied to last year’s $30 billion acquisition spree. Still, adjusted earnings beat expectations, with revenue jumping 12% to $5.3 billion - boosted by the integration of Global Infrastructure Partners.

Fink acknowledged the current turbulence but noted that BlackRock has historically emerged stronger from similar periods of structural change - such as the 2008 crisis, the pandemic, and the inflation surge of 2022.

MARKET
Big Tech Likely To Start Pushing

Today’s market action is once again being influenced by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade, especially as President Donald Trump has signaled potential exemptions from tariffs on certain consumer electronics. This has led to some speculation about which products might avoid the brunt of the tariff impact.

Late last week, it was revealed that smartphones would be excluded from the 125% “reciprocal” tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. However, Trump clarified on Sunday that these items would still be part of a broader review of the electronics supply chain. This has added confusion to an already unclear situation, with many products still under scrutiny, including semiconductors, which are expected to face tariffs in the coming months.

While the news continues to create volatility, we’re also noticing that many of the market leaders are showing strength especailly in the Technology sector itself. This could present opportunities for savvy traders who can spot these setups amid the chaos. Our goal today is to filter out the noise and focus on what the charts are telling us. Despite the trade uncertainties, we may be seeing signs of a potential reversal, and it’s important to stay alert for any technical breakouts that might emerge.

Nasdaq

The QQQ, which tracks the largest technology-related stocks in the U.S. market, is currently sitting at a critical level that will help determine the next move — whether we’ll see short-term relief or if the market will face further rejection and more choppy action. The red box on the daily chart highlights a long-standing supply/demand zone, one that’s been in play for over a year. This key zone lines up perfectly with the overhead supply level shown by the Point of Control (POC) on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), located around $475 — making it the level to watch closely today.

Over the past week, the QQQ experienced significant relative volume and an aggressive recovery on Wednesday. This surge was followed by two inside days and a contraction, forming an hourly flag pattern on descending volume. This contraction is a typical precursor to a larger move, signaling a period of volatility compression before a breakout or breakdown occurs.

Adding to the mix, news of potential tariff exemptions for tech-related companies has given a boost to several Nasdaq leaders, including Apple, which is up more than 6% in premarket trading. For a company of Apple’s size — a multi-trillion-dollar giant — this is no small move and underscores the potential for continued strength in the tech sector.

Take a look at the chart of the Magnificent Seven (MAGS) — Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). The setup here looks almost identical to that of the QQQ, and this tells us one crucial thing: it is most likely these MAGS stocks that will determine the market's next move.

These companies make up a significant portion of the Nasdaq and are major drivers of the broader market’s direction. When these stocks show strength, it typically leads to an overall bullish sentiment, particularly in tech and growth sectors. Conversely, if they struggle, it will weigh heavily on market indices like the QQQ and the broader market.

S&P Midcap 400

The fact that midcaps are forming the exact same pattern as the Nasdaq, which in turn mirrors the S&P 500, is a significant development that underscores a broader market convergence. This alignment across different market segments indicates that there is a unified market sentiment, with key indices displaying similar technical setups, which often precedes a major directional move. It suggests that the market is awaiting a catalyst for resolution, as contraction in volatility and price action across these indices is a hallmark of indecision. This could signal that when the market finally chooses a direction — whether it’s a breakout or a breakdown — it will likely have a broad impact, influencing not only the large-cap stocks but this spread into all of the other segments.

The MDY is setting up with a similar scenario, showing signs that it could make a move higher above its declining 10-EMA at $504. If we get some momentum this week, this move could push the MDY into its Point of Control (POC), a key volume level that has historically acted as both support and resistance. What's particularly notable here is that there is a low-volume pocket just above the 10-EMA, suggesting that there is little resistance in that range.

Russell 2000

The small caps are also showing a similar technical pattern, with a potential breakout brewing. We are seeing a big move forming below a key technical level — specifically the 10-EMA on the daily chart. This setup is characterized by declining volume as the price holds below this level, which is often indicative of consolidation or indecision before a larger move. The fact that the price is holding steady in this contraction zone suggests that the market is gathering energy, and when the breakout does occur, it is likely to be significant.

Note: While the technical setups across the major indices, midcaps, and small caps are pointing to the potential for an upside move, it’s important to remember that rejection is still a possibility. Despite the bullish patterns forming, the market remains in a fragile state, and any number of factors could cause the price action to reverse. The 10-EMA and Point of Control (POC) levels we've mentioned act as critical resistance points. If these levels are not decisively broken through with strong volume, we could see a rejection back to the downside.

Rejection can occur if market sentiment shifts unexpectedly, whether due to new headlines, macroeconomic data, or any changes in market perception. Additionally, if volume fails to confirm the breakout, we might see a return of selling pressure, leading to a consolidation or pullback. This is why it’s crucial to stay vigilant and have solid risk management in place. A rejection from these key levels could result in a short-term choppy market or even a deeper pullback. For us, a rejection simply means we'll remain in cash and avoid seeking exposure.

DAILY FOCUS
Market Structure Reflects Forward Thinking

The market is often referred to as a discounting mechanism, meaning it constantly prices in future expectations — even when those expectations are not yet realized. This is the crux of market structure: the idea that current prices reflect not only the present but the future as well. In other words, market participants are always pricing in what’s coming, whether that’s good or bad, anticipated or unexpected.

This creates a dynamic where the market is rarely acting in real-time — it is always looking ahead, and often, it discounts negative or positive events before they even fully unfold. This behavior is particularly critical when we’re dealing with market shifts tied to larger economic or geopolitical developments, such as trade tariffs, interest rate changes, or other macroeconomic risks.

In the context of today’s market, fear is pervasive. Headlines are bombarding traders with negative sentiment, whether it’s the constant worry around trade tariffs or broader economic slowdowns. It’s understandable that many are concerned about the future, which naturally drives volatility and can lead to extreme price action in both directions.

A long list of market leaders is starting to set up, and these aren’t just random moves — there's noticeable relative strength in stocks that are holding up better than the broader market. Many of these stocks have held their ground during recent sell-offs, showing resilience and conviction.

WATCHLIST
The Relative Strength Leaders

IONQ: IonQ, Inc.

• IONQ, an AI-related stock, is currently showing strong technical strength despite broader market weakness. Over the past several months, it has built a solid technical base with consistent higher lows, indicating underlying strength. Now, it is contracting just below its declining 50-day EMA, poised for a potential breakout as evidenced by a strong premarket showing.

• This is a textbook example of the type of relative strength we look for when scanning for leaders in a market where the broader indices are under pressure. IONQ’s ability to hold up during a time when many stocks are struggling speaks to its potential for a strong move if the market environment turns more favorable.

• This is not an isolated case — we are seeing similar contraction patterns in other AI and tech-related stocks, suggesting that these sectors are setting up for potential upside moves even if the broader market remains volatile.

PLTR: Palantir Technologies Inc.

• PLTR, the cybersecurity leader, has just made a significant deal with NATO, which is undoubtedly impressive on a macro level. However, from a technical perspective, PLTR is showing very bullish signs.

• The stock has been contracting above its key moving averages, particularly after a swift and aggressive bounce off its rising daily 200-EMA. This bounce has laid the groundwork for a potential breakout, and we’re now seeing a +6% move in premarket, pushing PLTR above a key multi-week resistance level.