OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Nasdaq (QQQ)

• $600 remains the critical demand shelf as buyers stepped in on 142% volume, but every bounce is still being rejected at declining EMAs with breadth deteriorating.

• Weekly doji + highest volume since April signals a major inflection point — trend intact, but momentum weakening sharply.

S&P 400 Midcap (MDY)

• Failed breakout above $590–592 confirmed as a bull trap, with lower highs, declining EMAs, and no accumulation showing.

• Sitting on $580 (20-week EMA + structural shelf); losing this level shifts MDY decisively into a Stage 4 markdown phase.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

• Bounce came on 147% volume but followed a much stronger selloff — rejection at declining EMAs confirms Stage 4 behaviour.

• VRVP shows an air pocket to ~$230 with no real support; sellers have a clean path lower if $233 breaks.

Focused Stock: IAUX

• Strong demand candle defending the 50-day and reclaiming short-term EMAs with real volume; buyers active at the $0.95–$1.00 demand node.

• Perfect 10-week EMA hold reinforces that precious metals are showing superior relative strength vs tech/growth.

Focused Group: XLE / RSPG

• Both cap-weight and equal-weight energy ETFs defended their POCs with conviction, reclaiming EMAs on rising volume — classic accumulation footprints.

• Multi-month bases remain intact with broad participation, positioning energy as a potential emerging leadership group as tech unwinds.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Volatility Rising as Leadership is Shifting

• U.S. equity futures open lower as markets brace for a high-volatility week driven by Nvidia earnings and the delayed September jobs report.

• AI-linked megacaps remain the center of gravity and NVDA trades soft pre-market as investors reassess stretched valuations and the sustainability of 2025–26 AI capex.

• This is all tied to the growing downside pressure experienced across the entire AI and Tech complex.

• Alphabet outperforms after Berkshire discloses a ~$5B position, providing a rare megacap tech tailwind in a week otherwise defined by de-risking.

• Rate-cut expectations continue to compress as traders price only a ~45% probability of a December cut vs ~62% last week ahead of Thursday’s NFP print.

• The September jobs report will dictate December FOMC probabilities and a strong print re-anchors “higher for longer,” a weak print revives dovish bets.

• NY Fed Empire Manufacturing jumps to its strongest level in a year, complicating the narrative of softening growth and keeping the Fed cautious.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 27.45% | % over 50 EMA: 42.15% | % over 200 EMA: 52.94%

• QQQ continues to anchor around $600, a major demand zone now validated with six separate touchpoints since early October.

• Friday’s bounce off $600 came on 142% of 20-day average volume, signalling there was a high degree of interest defending this level.

• Despite the strong reaction, price was rejected at the declining 10- and 20-day EMAs near ~$620, showing sellers are still in control on short-term momentum.

• The daily trend remains under pressure: EMAs are coiling lower, breadth is still deteriorating, and upside follow-through remains limited.

• Last week printed the highest relative volume week since the April 7, 2025 capitulation event which marked the launchpad for a multi-month trend higher.

• The weekly candle formed a doji directly at the $600 support shelf, showing clear two-way battle but importantly buyers defended the key intermediate-trend level.

• This defence preserves the broader intermediate uptrend for now, but the candle structure highlights growing indecision.

• The volume + doji combination signals a potential inflection point however this is not confirmation of a trend reversal yet, but neither for continuation either.

• This is a very dangerous period to position aggressively long or short, patience is by far the best strategy here for trend traders.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 39.75% | % over 50 EMA: 37.75% | % over 200 EMA: 53.25%

• Price failed to hold the brief breakout above the $590–$592 red-box resistance, a level we highlighted in advance as vulnerable given the diminishing volume on the breakout attempt.

• The move proved to be what we highlighted as a bull trap:

  • Early-week breakout attempt

  • No volume confirmation and in fact volume declined on the push higher

  • Immediate failure and full reversal

• Friday’s session confirmed rejection as the MDY tried to push back into the resistance zone, but was met with a wall of supply, most likely:

  • Short sellers defending the level, and

  • Longs from the Friday breakout flushing out.

• The daily trend structure remains weak with successive lower highs, declining short-term EMAs, and zero momentum follow-through.

• MDY is sitting directly on $580, which aligns with:

  • The 20-week EMA,

  • Recent swing lows,

  • A key structural shelf for the intermediate trend.

• Holding $580 keeps the index in neutral territory, losing it would tilt MDY firmly into markdown / Stage 4 behaviour.

• There is no evidence of upside resolution here as we don’t have volume thrust on the Friday bounce, no leader participation, and no accumulation footprints.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 41.58% | % over 50 EMA: 38.51% | % over 200 EMA: 52.61%

• Friday delivered a 147% relative-volume bounce, but context matters and this came after a decisive breakdown, and the quality of volume on the prior selloff outweighs the bounce.

• The bounce stalled exactly where expected right into the underside of prior support and into declining short-term EMAs behaviour inside a developing Stage 4 / markdown transition.

• Visible range volume profile (VRVP) shows a clear air pocket beneath current price, with very limited structural support until roughly $230, making that the most natural magnet for price discovery.

• Thursday’s breakdown volume was dramatically higher than Friday’s rebound which to us is a clear signal that supply > demand, and Friday was structural mean reversion.

• VRVP confirms meaningful volume vacuum between $233 and $230, and the next major high-density node doesn’t appear until well lower, suggesting sellers have room to press.

🧠 Mindset Check: Cash Is a Position

Most traders suffer from action bias which is the urge to always be in a trade. Others know the opposite: cash is an active, alpha-generating decision.

It has risk/reward, opportunity cost, and in today’s rate environment it holds a positive return.

Why Cash Is a Weapon

• Capital Preservation = Compounding Power
  If your account is +50% from April–July 2025, defending that gain through August–September chop compounds wealth as effectively as a winning trade — but without the downside risk.

• Positive Carry
  In 2025, USD cash yields ~4%. A $250K account parked for 2 months earns ~$1,667 risk-free, while staying fully liquid.

• Flexibility & Strike Power
  Cash-rich traders can hit high-conviction setups instantly instead of clawing out of drawdowns.

Historical Cash Triggers
After 3–4 month surges (Aug–Nov 2020, Mar–Jun 2023), broad market win rates dropped 25–40% in the next 4–8 weeks.

Our breakout model (42% baseline win rate) typically falls below 30% win rate after such aggressive market runs. That’s our personal signal to shift defensive.

Your Cash Checklist:

1. Market breadth narrowing?

2. System win rate <30%?

3. High prior gains to protect?
   If yes to 2+ — cash is the highest-ROI position.

FOCUSED STOCK
IAUX: Gold Miners > Tech & AI Complex

ADR%: 5.77% | Off 52-week high: -13.0% | Above 52-week low: +163.2%

• Friday printed a very clear demand candle, with a long lower tail beneath the 50-day EMA which is strong evidence of buyers defending the rising trend structure.

• Price reclaimed the 10-day and 20-day EMAs on expanding relative volume, confirming active dip-buying and the VRVP shows a high-density demand node at $0.95–$1.00, exactly where price bounced. This remains the most important near-term support band.

• IAUX held the 10-week EMA perfectly and produced a strong weekly demand candle, with buyers stepping in aggressively at the lows.

• We should all be aware of the growing relative strength in the precious metal segment against the rather weak growth equities group, and focusing on precious metal related names that are holding out above their 10 week EMAs and building bases is a great place to run scans right now.

FOCUSED GROUP
XLE: The Next Market Leaders

• Energy had one of the strongest relative-strength performances on Friday, and both the cap-weight (XLE) and equal-weight (RSPG) versions of the sector flashed legitimate accumulation behaviour.

• Both charts show the same character: price pulled back into rising short-term moving averages, found buyers immediately, and defended their respective point-of-control levels with conviction.

• XLE bounced directly off the $88 POC, which continues to act as the primary demand zone inside this multi-month base.

• The reaction wasn’t soft either as the candle ripped straight back through the 10-day EMA and held it on the close, confirming buyers are still defending higher. Structurally, XLE hasn’t broken anything.

• This remains a multi month base with rising EMAs underneath and increasingly supportive volume on every pullback.

• Friday’s accumulation candle reinforces that $88 is the key institutional level and that energy remains in a constructive stage 2 continuation setup.

• RSPG showed the exact same signature, which is what makes this so interesting as equal-weight energy defended the $80 POC perfectly almost to the tick, and reversed higher on expanding volume.

• When both cap-weight and equal-weight confirm each other, it tells you the strength is likely broad based, with healthy participation across the entire sector.

• RSPG also held the rising 10-day EMA and printed a clean demand candle that keeps the entire weekly structure intact.

• Both charts are now showing that energy is quietly emerging as a potential leadership group again. This is happening while the rest of the market is struggling with rising volatility, heavy liquidation flows in growth/tech, and breakdown risk across midcaps and small caps.