OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Macro

• Government reopens, but missing October CPI + jobs data leaves the market “flying blind,” increasing uncertainty into December–January.

• Investors now lean on yields, breakevens, and positioning instead of hard data, raising the odds of chop and narrative-driven moves.

Nasdaq (QQQ / QQQE)

• Both are coiling under supply with tight contraction above rising EMAs—structure is stable but not actionable yet.

• Clean inverted H&S bottoms forming; constructive patterns but 65% throwback probability means breakout chasing is low-quality until the neckline holds.

S&P 400 Midcap (MDY)

• Sharp rejection at $602.50 shows sellers still defending the top of the range.

• A pullback into $596 (POC + rising EMAs) is the logical next move and maintains trend integrity while above the 10-week EMA.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

• Clear rejection inside the supply zone confirms active sellers; price is unwinding toward the $241–242 support cluster.

• Controlled retest, not disorderly selling—stabilization at support could trigger a move back toward the POC at ~$243.

Focused Stock: NGD

• Strong Stage 2 weekly structure with rising volume and clean base formation.

• Best entries are buy-the-dip zones around $7.10–7.25; chasing strength offers poor R/R given wide intraday range.

Focused Group: XLU / RSPU

• Three straight inside days with ATR compression signals energy building before expansion.

• Both ETFs holding above daily + weekly EMAs with clean bounces off 10-week support—utilities emerging as a quiet leadership group.

MARKET ANALYSIS
A Choppy & Messy Environment

• Government reopens after a six-week shutdown, but the relief is muted across markets.

• Futures are slightly red as investors digest the reality that October inflation and employment data may never be released which is leaving the market without two of the most important macro inputs for rate expectations.

• The absence of these data points forces the market to fly blind, which naturally increases uncertainty around the December and January macro path.

• Investors now must rely on market-implied indicators (breakevens, yields, OIS curves) rather than hard economic prints.

• Treasury yields ticked higher on the reopen as the bond market reprices the short-term growth drag from the shutdown.

• Historically, shutdowns create a temporary soft patch in activity, followed by a normalization, but without the missing data, the Fed’s next steps become harder to anchor.

• Yesterday we had Industrials, financials, healthcare, and small caps all outperforming as yields stabilized.

• That rotation is healthy, but it also highlights market caution as capital rotating away from crowded risk-on growth tech. The divergence between Nasdaq weakness and Dow strength is a direct expression of investors de-risking within equities.

• Corporate earnings continue to steer price action during the data blackout:

  • Disney sold off after mixed results, with streaming strength offset by legacy TV deterioration.

  • Cisco surged after raising guidance and investors rewarding strong forward visibility in a macro environment where visibility is scarce.

  • Retail pockets (e.g., Dillard’s) continue to show surprising resilience, with comps and revenue beating expectations.

• The market is very heavily narrative-driven: without inflation and labor data, investors lean on positioning, breadth, and earnings to determine direction. This creates an environment where chop and volatility are more likely, especially into month-end.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 41.17% | % over 50 EMA: 50.00% | % over 200 EMA: 55.88%

• Still in a digestion phase; tight consolidation above the 10EMA/20EMA with no decisive momentum either way.

• Multiple attempts higher are getting absorbed by overhead volume at ~621 QQQ and ~103 QQQE.

• Structure is stable, but daily isn’t providing fresh signal yet and this remains a coil inside supply.

• Both QQQ and QQQE have formed clean inverted head-and-shoulders bottoms with symmetrical shoulders, proportional valleys, and correctly tapering volume into the right shoulder.

• Historical stats (Bulkowski):

  • Break-even failure rate: 11% → one of the lowest failure rates of all major bottoming patterns.

  • Throwback rate: ~65%, which is important as most successful patterns retest the neckline.

  • Hit rate for reaching measured move: ~71%.

• Why this matters:

  • This is the first legitimate bottoming formation in tech in weeks.

  • The fact that QQQE (equal-weight) is confirming means this isn’t just mega-cap noise but the broader NASDAQ is participating.

  • Structure is constructive, but patterns with a 65% throwback rate + overhead volume mean breakout-chasing is lower probability until we clear and hold the neckline.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 55.36% | % over 50 EMA: 46.13% | % over 200 EMA: 55.86%

• Yesterday’s push into ~$602.50 was met with immediate supply, and the fade was sharp showing clear evidence that sellers are still defending the upper end of this multi-week range.

• Structure remains choppy, but the roadmap is straightforward as a pullback toward $596 (daily POC) is the most logical short-term move.

• The 10 & 20 EMAs are rising directly into the $596 area, making this a stacked zone of demand where buyers have repeatedly stepped in.

• Volume profile still shows heavy overhead supply from $600–604, so expecting clean follow-through upside without retest would be unrealistic.

• Despite the chop, MDY is doing exactly what it needs to do to maintain trend integrity.

• Price continues to hold above the 10-week EMA (~$591.40) which is the single most important level for the intermediate trend.

• As long as we stay above that 10-week EMA, the midcap trend remains constructively bullish, even if the day-to-day price action is frustratingly noisy.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 49.66% | % over 50 EMA: 43.20% | % over 200 EMA: 55.50%

• Yesterday produced clear rejection on elevated relative volume directly inside the supply zone we highlighted earlier this week → sellers active exactly where they should be.

• Price is now unwinding cleanly into the rising 50-day EMA and the 10-week EMA cluster around ~$241, which is the first legitimate support since last week’s push.

• Despite the softness, the move lower isn’t disorderly and so far it’s a controlled retest into major demand.

• The volume profile still shows a gap above that price tends to magnetize toward on stabilization.

• Expectation: any stabilization around $241–242 can trigger a retrace back toward the POC at ~$243.

FOCUSED STOCK
NGD: The Leading Trend Following Group

ADR%: 5.56% | Off 52-week high: -1.7% | Above 52-week low: +211.9%

• Weekly chart shows a clean multi-month base, supported by rising volume and a strong 10-week EMA which is classic stage 2 accumulation behavior on these pullbacks.

• Yesterday’s push off the daily POC at $7.21 was the real breakout, even if it didn’t clear the absolute highs.

• Intraday range is wide, so chasing strength has poor R/R. The higher-probability entry is on weakness back into $7.10–7.25, where demand has been consistently showing up.

• A weekly-chart approach works well here: wider stop, smaller position size, targeting the higher-timeframe breakout.

• NDG remains a leader in a leading segment (gold miners), and structure supports continuation as long as price holds above rising weekly support.

FOCUSED GROUP
XLU: The Next Leadership Group

• Both XLU and RSPU have printed three consecutive inside / contraction days.

• ATR is compressing sharply, signalling energy build-up before expansion.

• Both ETFs holding tight above their daily 10/20 EMAs which shows a constructive consolidation within trend.

• RSPU is slightly front-running XLU and equal-weight often leads during healthy sector rotations.

• Both XLU and RSPU bounced cleanly and immediately off their 10-week EMAs- again a sign of strong confirmation of intermediate-term trend strength.

• Weekly pullback was controlled, volume normalized, and supply was absorbed without structural damage.