MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s All You Need To Know

• Markets are firmer this morning because investors are again leaning toward de-escalation, not because the geopolitical risk has disappeared.

• Yesterday’s close mattered. Despite the blockade headline, equities recovered strongly into the session close, which tells you the market is increasingly treating this as a negotiation-driven conflict rather than pricing immediate escalation.

• Oil pulling back is the main driver behind that tone.

• The key nuance is that crude is lower, but still elevated. Energy remains expensive enough to keep inflation pressure alive, so this is constructive, but not a fully relaxed macro backdrop.

• At the same time, we are seeing clear movement back into growth.

• There have been several meaningful breakouts across tech, with XLK, SMH, and Alphabet Inc. all holding recent upside moves well.

• That matters because sustained market upside rarely develops without leadership from technology, and right now semiconductors remain one of the clearest areas of relative strength.

• Software also reversed sharply yesterday, which adds to the view that money is rotating back into prior leadership groups rather than simply hiding in defensive areas.

• Earnings now become the next key test. Expectations are more realistic than they were earlier in the year, but guidance still needs to hold up under higher input costs.

• Producer prices today matter because the market wants to see whether elevated oil is staying contained or beginning to feed further into broader inflation pressure.

• For now, the tape remains constructive: growth is holding, leadership is broadening, but oil still defines the ceiling.

S&P 500

71.71%: over 20 EMA | 49.60%: over 50 EMA | 55.37%: over 200 EMA

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust surprised yesterday with a 1.48% intraday range, clearing its normal 1.25% ADR despite volume running at only 61% of average.

• The important point is that this move did not happen in isolation. The same underlying strength was visible across growth, with tech, semiconductors, and large-cap leadership all supporting the push higher.

• SPY is now inching above both the daily and weekly points of control, which matters because those are key acceptance zones rather than just short-term resistance.

• Internally, breadth continues to improve: 50% of stocks are now above their 50EMA, while 55% are above their 200EMA, which is a meaningful recovery in participation.

• We are also seeing a clear uptick in follow-through quality. Recent breakouts are materially holding, and entries are no longer resulting in widespread stop-outs across growth.

• That is one of the strongest practical signs that market conditions have improved.

• The caution is short-term extension. 71% of stocks are already above their 20EMA, while index volume remains very low, so there is still room for a bull trap if upside continues without broader confirmation.

• For now, though, trades should still be engaged — just with tighter attention to selectivity.

• The key is no longer simply chasing index strength, but tracking which groups are receiving the strongest relative volume inflow.

• Oil remains critical here. West Texas Intermediate is still holding above its 10-week EMA, even though a near-term pullback is forming.

• That pullback in crude is helping equities breathe in the short term but if WTI stabilises and bounces from that weekly support, expect equities to react immediately, because higher oil remains the cleanest short-term pressure point for risk assets.

Nasdaq

65.34%: over 20 EMA | 46.53%: over 50 EMA | 48.51%: over 200 EMA

• Invesco QQQ Trust, which has led this recent relief rally, is now showing the first small signs of exhaustion.

• Yesterday formed a clear exhaustion candle off the $627 supply ceiling, with an intraday range near 3%, roughly 1.8x normal ADR.

• Importantly, almost half of that move was retraced by the close, and that happened on only 49% relative volume.

• The most likely reason is simple: QQQ is now the most technically extended index short term after bouncing off the rising 50-week EMA, while also reclaiming the 20-month and 10-month moving averages.

• From a pure price perspective, the structure remains strong and there is little to fault in the trend itself.

• Volume remains the main concern, but in low-conviction environments it is common for price to move first and participation to arrive later if confidence builds.

• That does not justify immediate aggressive risk-on positioning, but it does justify staying open-minded and building a clear focus list around the groups showing real leadership.

S&P 400 Midcap

80.50%: over 20 EMA | 56.00%: over 50 EMA | 59.50%: over 200 EMA

• SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust again defended $640, which was the critical level given the risk of the larger gap filling lower.

• Demand stepped in exactly where it needed to and price is now approaching the upper edge of the dense visible volume range ceiling near $660.

• After three straight weeks higher, this is where caution matters because breadth is already elevated, with 81% of stocks above their 20EMA.

• That reduces immediate breakout asymmetry at marginal highs.

• What cannot be ignored, however, is relative performance: midcaps are now very close to all-time highs and have recently outperformed both SPY and QQQ on a relative basis.

Russell 2000

78.88%: over 20 EMA | 60.84%: over 50 EMA | 58.13%: over 200 EMA

• iShares Russell 2000 ETF is now only 2.2% below all-time highs, which is remarkable considering this entire move began only three weeks ago from the 50-week EMA near $239.

• The rally remains low volume, but price continues to hold firm.

• The current gap into $267 is important because the visible range shows roughly 7 million shares traded red versus 5 million green, making this an obvious supply area.

• That creates two possibilities, first, supply can attract selling as short-term range traders exit into resistance.

• Second, if price refuses to break lower, those same sellers become trapped and create fuel for a squeeze higher.

FOCUSED GROUP
QTUM: Growth is Really Pushing

• We are paying very close attention to QTUM because the quantum group is beginning to stabilise after weeks of controlled selling.

• A number of names in the group are now slowing their breakdowns, and more importantly QTUM is starting to move alongside stronger tech leadership such as NVIDIA Corporation.

• This is where asymmetry becomes interesting: after roughly a month of corrective action, the group is now near the point where failed downside can begin turning into renewed upside.

• The key technical feature across many of these names is that weekly relative volume has been declining while price has sold off, which often signals downside exhaustion rather than aggressive institutional distribution.

• That does not confirm immediate reversal, but it often marks the phase where opportunity begins to emerge.

• Several names in the group have earnings approaching over the next few weeks, so any entries here should be managed carefully and de-risked ahead of those reports.

• For now, this is a group to watch very closely because if growth leadership broadens further, quantum is one of the higher-asymmetry areas that could begin participating.

Top Quantum Names: