OVERVIEW
Full Steam Ahead

🟢 Risk-On: QQQ holds trend, IWM + MDY extend higher. Breakouts across QTUM, BTC, and Semis confirm risk appetite.

📈 Goldilocks Jobs Report: Payrolls beat slightly, unemployment ticks up, and wage growth cools — all pointing to a soft landing and likely Q3 rate cuts.

📊 Breadth Still Expanding: Small and midcaps gaining traction, leadership rotation healthy. No breakdowns in mega-cap tech — just redistribution.

🧠 Stay Tactical: Buy the setups early, not the extensions. Fixed risk, clean entries, and discipline win in this environment.

MARKET ANALYSIS
A Bad Day To Be A Bear

This morning’s June jobs report came in softer but not weak—a goldilocks print that supports the bull case without flashing recession risk.

• Payrolls came in at +147K (vs. +106K expected) — slightly above consensus but not hot enough to derail rate cut hopes

• Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected), which shows some softening in the labor market

• Wage growth was modest — +0.2% MoM and +3.7% YoY, both slightly below expectations, which helps tame inflation concerns

• Jobless claims and continuing claims were largely in line

🧠 In plain English: The labor market is cooling gradually, not collapsing — exactly what the Fed wants to see if it's going to move toward rate cuts as early as July or September.

This is a risk-on print for equities. It's soft enough to keep rate cut momentum alive, but not weak enough to trigger growth fears.

The market is acting like it wants higher — don’t fight it. Let the trend do the heavy lifting, and keep managing exposure like a portfolio manager, not a panic trader.

Nasdaq

The QQQ remains structurally dominant, bouncing cleanly off its rising 10EMA yesterday after a brief bout of capital rotation into mid- and small-cap names.

• We highlighted yesterday that rotation was accelerating out of the Magnificent 7 and mega-cap tech, as IWM and MDY surged

• And yet—QQQ held trend, with no breakdowns in key leadership stocks like NVDA, MU, or META

• This is a textbook example of risk-on broadening, not risk-off reallocation

🧠 Here’s what matters:
When capital rotates down the risk curve, but prior leaders hold their rising EMAs, that’s a sign of deep market health. The strongest stocks didn’t break trend—they simply took a backseat as other groups played catch-up.

There was no forced selling, no panic, and no structural damage to the Qs. That’s rare—and it speaks volumes.

📌 We expect continuation higher today if tech buyers return.

S&P 400 Midcap

MDY pushed higher again, now testing the key $585 supply shelf, which aligns with a high-volume resistance zone.

• Caution: Gap-up opens into supply can invite reversals—don’t get overly aggressive at the top of range

• Relative volume faded on yesterday’s push—not ideal for conviction

• But price is king, and the underlying strength across midcap leaders remains strong

📌 As long as this group holds trend, we treat any pullback as a potential setup—not a warning sign.

Russell 2000

IWM pushed higher again on strong relative volume, but is now pressing into a dense supply zone just below $225, as seen on the visible volume profile.

• This is a key test as this was a prior level we broke down in Jan/Feb 2025

• If buyers absorb this overhead, it confirms a structural shift

• Until then, expect momentum to slow, not reverse

🧠 What matters:
We’re seeing a healthy rotation down the market cap spectrum—from mega-caps to mid- and small-caps. While that rotation has temporarily drained liquidity from the prior leaders, there’s no breakdown—just broadening participation.

📌 This is a textbook risk-on environment: capital is rotating, not retreating.

FOCUSED STOCK
ODD: A Secondary VCP on A Big Mover

ODD remains high on our watchlist with a textbook VCP (volatility contraction pattern) forming.

• Price is tightening along the 10/20 EMAs

• Volume drying up as RS strengthens

• Major breakout level: $75–76

• Strong bounce off POC shows buyers stepping in early

🧭 Zooming out, ODD is entering a fresh Stage 2 rally on the weekly chart—this is exactly the kind of early setup to prioritize over extended names.

FOCUSED GROUP
QTUM: Quantum Leading the Charge

Quantum (QTUM) is our top-ranked theme right now, with breakouts in IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, and QBTS leading the charge.

• QTUM ETF broke to all-time highs on strong volume

• High-growth narrative tied to AI + infrastructure

• Most names here are small/mid-cap, aligning with strength in IWM & MDY as capital rotates down the risk curve

📌 This is early-stage momentum in a high-beta group—exactly where trend traders want to be positioned.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you actually know when to push size—and when not to? I keep over- and under-trading”

This is one of the most important questions a serious trader can ask. And the answer starts with one word: data.

First Rule: Fixed Risk Is Non-Negotiable

If you’re still learning execution or building consistency, your first job is to fix your risk per trade, e.g. 0.3% of equity, every trade. No exceptions.

Why?

• It removes emotion from decision-making

• It limits drawdown (so you can survive losing streaks)

• It forces you to focus on setup quality, not conviction bias

Second Rule: Preparation Wins, Not Reaction

The biggest edge is being positioned before the breakout, not chasing it after it’s obvious.

That’s why we never initiate trades if price is already extended >0.75x ADR (Average Daily Range) from its base or setup zone.

These types of entries:

• Offer poor risk/reward

• Attract late money (with no follow-through)

• Often result in immediate shakeouts or reversals

🧠 The Hesitant Trader Cycle (Don’t Get Trapped)

Many traders fall into this loop:

1. They hesitate, waiting for confirmation.

2. By the time the breakout is clear, the R/R is already compressed.

3. They finally enter—late—and get chopped up in the volatility or reversal.

4. That loss reinforces the hesitation next time.

This cycle destroys your edge. You end up pushing when it’s too late and pulling back when the edge is strongest.

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