OVERVIEW
Stay Objective - Don’t Get Caught Up in the Hype

🟨 Moderate Risk-On: Market sentiment improves with U.S.-China tariff reductions easing trade tensions. Key sectors like tech are leading, but caution is still needed as we await actual technical confirmation.

🔮 Uncertainty Eases: This agreement signals a potential de-escalation in trade tensions, and we believe the peak uncertainty over trade is now behind us.

🛑 Don’t Get Greedy: While bullish, overhead supply in several sectors could lead to near-term consolidation as we are coming from a multi week rally higher.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Emotions Are Running Hot..

The narrative around the U.S.-China trade talks has taken a significant turn for the better. Both nations have come to an agreement on cutting tariffs — a move that brings U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports down to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods are reduced to 10%. This change has provided some much-needed clarity and stability, and we’re now past the peak of trade uncertainty.

As markets digest this news, the risk appetite is picking up, and the setup is leaning toward a V-shaped recovery. We expect to see more stability and strength in the coming weeks as investor confidence is bolstered by these positive developments. The probability of a meaningful bounce is rising, and the macro picture looks increasingly favorable for a sustained move higher.

With key uncertainty out of the way, traders should be positioning for a potential continuation of this bullish momentum. However, caution is advised, as we know that emotional reactions can often skew perception in the short term.

Nasdaq

• The QQQ continues to reflect the strength of large-cap tech stocks like META, NVDA, and other major names. We’re seeing the highest probability of continuation higher, as it holds the Point of Control (POC) from Friday.

• We’re making a significant gap up above the $500 level, which is a psychological resistance point. This takes us closer to testing the overhead supply wall at $512 as we are clearly in the beginnings of a new major uptrend.

⚠️ Caution: While the market is gapping higher, it’s important not to assume everything will keep climbing. Markets can easily fade after the open. Stay disciplined and avoid buying purely based on the gap. Wait for confirmation before making any decisions, and most importantly stick to your entry rules.

S&P 400 Midcap

• The midcaps (MDY) are now gapping into a major supply zone between $560–$570 — precisely where the visible range volume profile (VRVP) shows the Point of Control (POC). We’re reclaiming the 200-day EMA, which is a strong technical signal… but we’re also entering the lion’s den.

• Expect initial rejection near $560, especially in the first hour, as cooler heads kick in post-open. This is a classic test: reclaim the 200EMA, then deal with the bulk of trapped supply overhead.

Patience will pay off — especially when price slams into a wall of volume.

Russell 2000

• The small caps (IWM) are gapping up strongly this morning, finally breaking above the descending 200-day EMA — a level that has capped price since February. What makes this move more impressive is that we barely held the Point of Control (POC) around $200 on Friday… yet now we’re pushing into open air.

• But the key today? Whether the gap holds — or fades. Small caps have the most to gain in a new bull market. They’re the most beaten down, the most speculative, and the most volatile — which means they also have the highest top speed (watch ADR%). That’s why this group is often the clearest signal of risk appetite.

Tactic: Avoid emotional entries at the open. Let the first 5–15 minutes play out — especially with IWM — before reacting. This move is FOMO-driven at the open, but structure and follow-through determine whether it sticks.

🧠 Mindset Check: Trade With Your Head, Not Your Heart

Imagine you own a successful Italian restaurant. You’ve built a reputation for delivering exceptional pasta, pizza, and wine, and your operations are finely tuned to deliver the best Italian food in town. Now, a customer walks in and asks for Chinese food. Would you suddenly start trying to cook stir-fry and dumplings on the fly? Of course not. You don’t have the infrastructure or systems to handle that, and trying to do so would likely ruin both the meal and your reputation.

Now, apply this same thinking to your trading.

Trading is no different. If you’ve built your system around a specific strategy — say, a breakout trader for long-side momentum — sticking to that system is critical. You wouldn’t randomly switch to intraday scalping or start chasing every news-driven move without a plan. Just like your restaurant, your trading operation relies on infrastructure — and that infrastructure includes a clear system, strategy, and rules.

The China-US trade updates and the upcoming FOMC meeting add a new layer of complexity to the market. Markets are volatile and heavily influenced by news like this — and many traders, especially new ones, can fall into the trap of jumping from one strategy to another just because of headlines. But here’s the problem: You wouldn’t change your entire restaurant’s menu based on one customer request, just like you shouldn’t throw your strategy out the window because of shifting market headlines.

If you’ve built your trading strategy around breakouts or trend-following, you need to stay grounded. The volatility from things like FOMC expectations or China-US trade talk developments can create noise, but it doesn’t change your system unless it directly alters your structure.

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FOCUSED STOCK
CIFR: Cipher Mining Inc.

• With Bitcoin and Ethereum ripping higher, crypto equities are starting to flash setups — and CIFR is one to watch.

• CIFR, a crypto mining company, has seen rising volume post-earnings and is now coiling tightly along its Point of Control (POC) just above the $3 level — a key breakout zone. For the technicians: an inverse head & shoulders pattern has formed, adding further structural weight to the setup.

• Importantly, CIFR closely tracks BTCUSD, and with the underlying asset breaking out and broader risk appetite firming across U.S. equities, this is shaping up as a high-probability momentum trade.

• Looking at the volume profile, there's little overhead supply between current levels and the declining 200-day EMA near $4.12. A strong move through $3 could ignite a fast push into that zone.

FOCUSED SECTOR
SMH: Semiconductors

• The semiconductor group has lagged over the past few weeks — especially compared to higher-beta areas like quantum computing — but that may be changing this morning.

• Today, we’re seeing SMH gap decisively above both its Point of Control (POC) and the declining 200-day EMA, pushing directly into overhead supply visible on the volume profile.

• This isn’t a small move — this is a structure break in one of the market’s most critical leadership groups. Remember: NVDA, TSM, and many other market-moving names live here. If this breakout holds, semis could reclaim their leadership role.

• Stay focused on continuation confirmation: holding above Friday’s POC and clearing through this volume shelf are key.

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