MARKET ANALYSIS
What You Need To Know

• Futures are slightly higher this morning as the market waits for Nvidia earnings after the close, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq contracts all ticking modestly upward. The market is clearly compressing into a major catalyst.

• Yesterday’s session was constructive across the board, with the S&P 500 gaining roughly 0.8%, the Nasdaq advancing around 1%, and the Dow adding approximately 0.8%. Importantly, leadership came from growth and technology, which had been under pressure in recent weeks.

• A nearly 9% rally in AMD after its multiyear deal announcement with Meta helped shift sentiment. That move alone signaled that AI spending is not collapsing, and the reaction across semiconductors was firm rather than hesitant.

• Software and cybersecurity names staged a relief rally after Anthropic introduced integrations for Claude Cowork. Fears that AI tools would immediately displace incumbent enterprise software vendors appear to have been overstretched, and yesterday’s price action reflected that reset in positioning.

• The IGV software ETF rallied nearly 2% on the session. While it remains significantly lower year to date, the key takeaway is that price responded positively once fear peaked. That is often how bottoms begin.

• Nvidia’s earnings remain the central event risk. However, it is important to recognize that growth stocks are not trading like a group expecting disaster. The structure across semiconductors, large cap tech, and broader growth exposure looks stable and increasingly constructive.

• Investors are recalibrating AI valuations and hyperscaler capital expenditures, but the broader growth complex is showing resilience rather than fragility.

• On the geopolitical front, tariff concerns eased slightly after a 10% duty was implemented rather than the previously threatened 15% rate. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain a background risk, but they are not currently driving price action.

  • What stands out most is how impressive the price behavior across the growth complex looks despite persistent negative headlines. The Nasdaq is stabilizing, semiconductors are holding key support, and breadth within growth has quietly improved for nearly two weeks.

• Momentum had clearly stalled earlier in the week during the AI disruption panic. However, yesterday’s recovery suggests that positioning had become too defensive. Growth stocks are not breaking down and look rather impressive for long trades here.

• The reaction to Nvidia will determine the next leg. If Nvidia confirms strength, the current compression across growth could resolve sharply higher. If Nvidia disappoints, the market reaction will matter more than the numbers themselves.

• The key point is this: growth is not behaving like a sector in structural decline. It is behaving like a sector that absorbed fear, reset positioning, and is now coiling into a catalyst.

Nasdaq

49.50%: over 20 EMA | 50.49%: over 50 EMA | 52.47%: over 200 EMA

• The QQQ is defending the $600 level extremely well and for three sessions in a row we have seen tight barcoding directly above $600, which is important because this level sits inside the descending broadening wedge we have been discussing for weeks.

• That formation has an upside resolution over 80% of the time, and we are now beginning to see price attempt a breakout from it.

• This wedge has been forming for 27 days. During that time, we have recorded nine separate touch points at the upper resistance boundary and that is pressure building.

• On the weekly chart, QQQ is defending a demand zone that goes all the way back to September 2025. Yesterday’s candle had a body range of roughly 2%, which is slightly above its 1.7% average daily range.

• We also printed a green inverse hammer on the weekly structure, showing buyers stepping in as price tested that demand.

• The key catalyst is Nvidia earnings tonight. Structurally, growth looks positioned for strength, but trading overnight exposure into earnings is never a disciplined approach.

• The smarter play is to wait for the reaction and focus tomorrow on growth names if Nvidia confirms upside continuation.

S&P 400 Midcap

51.25%: over 20 EMA | 57.28%: over 50 EMA | 65.32%: over 200 EMA

• MDY continues to hold above its rising 20-day EMA and yesterday we attempted a bullish engulfing candle, but it did not fully confirm because Monday’s highs around $656.75 were not taken out. That said, the structure remains constructive.

• On the weekly chart, we have now seen three consecutive weeks with long lower wicks. Each time price dips, buyers step in quickly and push it back up which shows us an absorbtion of supply which is a very positive sign.

• Relative volume on the weekly timeframe continues to decline during this consolidation and this is really important as rising volume inside consolidation often signals distribution whereas declining volume signals a tightening of supply.

• On the hourly chart, MDY is forming a clean cup and handle pattern between Monday’s open and Tuesday’s open, followed by a tight handle into yesterday’s close and that aligns with the daily and weekly support structure.

• Mid caps remain structurally strong. However, our focus remains on the NASDAQ because the asymmetry currently favors growth.

Russell 2000

42.35%: over 20 EMA | 49.73%: over 50 EMA | 60.73%: over 200 EMA

• IWM defended the $258 level on Monday, which was the rising 50-day EMA. Yesterday we saw an inside day and strong recovery off $260, showing demand stepping up.

• Like MDY, IWM is forming a cup and handle on the hourly timeframe. The base has now been building for 42 days since January 12th. That is a substantial compression period.

• Relative strength versus the SPX is 85, which is stronger than both the NASDAQ and mid caps. Structurally, IWM has a larger base and cleaner consolidation.

• Across QQQ, MDY, and IWM, we are seeing synchronized tightening above key intermediate support levels. That is typically what precedes expansion.

FOCUSED STOCK
UEC: Ready To Breakout Today

ADR%: 8.55% | Off 52-week high: -20.5% | Above 52-week low: +320.0%

• UEC is setting up exceptionally well and we can see the relative volume has been declining steadily since late January. That tells you selling pressure is drying up. The stock tested its rising 10-week EMA and bounced cleanly, forming a green hammer this week.

• On the daily chart, UEC is sitting right on its point of control. The 10-day and 20-day EMAs are flattening, the 50-day EMA is being held, and the entire moving average cluster is compressing tightly.

• The average true range has narrowed significantly over the last five sessions. That kind of volatility compression often precedes aggressive expansion.

• UEC also has an ADR of 8.55%, which means when it moves, it moves quickly. Uranium as a theme remains strong, and UEC tends to correlate closely with growth and AI infrastructure narratives.

• We will be watching UEC very closely for a breakout, potentially as early as today and we do believe this is a stock to not ignore.